Don't look back, Norfolk and Portsmouth. Something might be gaining on you.
It's your neighbors, Chesapeake and Suffolk. And they're getting ready to pass you.
New population estimates released this week show the suburban cities of Chesapeake and Suffolk keep growing like kudzu. Meanwhile, the old urban hub of Norfolk remains stagnant, and Portsmouth is shrinking.
Virginia Beach, the state's most populous city, is growing slowly.
At this rate, Chesapeake will pass Norfolk to become the No. 2 city in Virginia in about nine years. It could be sooner, depending on how the 2010 census counts the Navy's population.
At the same time, Suffolk is poised to pass Roanoke in four or five years to take the No. 9 spot, then pass Portsmouth a year later to become No. 8.
The new population estimates were released Tuesday by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.
As of 2007, the estimated populations in South Hampton Roads are: Virginia Beach 433,033; Norfolk 235,987; Chesapeake 216,568; Portsmouth 98,543; and Suffolk 81,209.
Chesapeake Mayor Dalton Edge said he's not surprised by the trend, and he's not sure there's any benefit to being Virginia's second-biggest city.
"Chesapeake continues to be one of the premiere suburban communities in the entire country," Edge said. "It's not surprising that people would want to live here."
He said the Chesapeake City Council has significantly slowed the city's growth rate, which was about 4.5 percent a year in the 1990s, to about 1.5 percent a year now.
Meanwhile, Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim said it won't hurt his city's collective ego when Chesapeake eventually becomes No. 2. "I think we got over that when Virginia Beach's population zoomed past ours," he said. "We're secure in ourselves."
Fraim noted that official population estimates from the Census Bureau have Norfolk adding 4,400 people since 2000. "And that is counter to the trends, both statewide and nationally, for core cities," he said.
Norfolk Vice Mayor Anthony L. Burfoot said it was inevitable that Norfolk would fall behind its suburban neighbors after they became cities in the 1960s. "They have far more land than we have," he said. "It's not a challenge to grow when you can plow under acre after acre."
In Suffolk, Mayor Linda Johnson said of the population trend, "I find it very exciting, and I know we're poised for some really great things in our future."
Johnson said when she moved to Suffolk in 1963, Sleepy Hole Borough was all trees and orchards. Now it is home to many new neighborhoods.
In Portsmouth, city spokeswoman Monique Bass said her city's population drop may have been caused by redevelopment of the former Fairwood Homes, Ida Barbour and Jeffry Wilson neighborhoods. Less-dense neighborhoods have taken their place or will soon be built.
The new population report also shows:
- More people are moving out of South Hampton Roads than moving in.
According to the report, net migration in the five-city area was negative 18,000. Among the five cities, only Chesapeake and Suffolk did not suffer migration losses.
Still, they were offset by the addition of 60,000 new residents in South Hampton Roads by "natural increase," essentially births minus deaths.
- Northern Virginia is the most booming spot in the commonwealth. The metro area gained 344,000 people from 2000 to 2007 - more than the entire population of Norfolk and Portsmouth combined. That's a growth rate of 16.3 percent since 2000.
A single county in Northern Virginia - Loudoun - is the fastest-growing in the state, and among the fastest-growing in the nation. It exploded by 63 percent since 2000.
- The Richmond metro area is growing faster than Hampton Roads, driven largely by suburban Chesterfield and Henrico counties. Together, those two counties added 66,000 people this decade. That's enough to fill every seat in Harbor Park in Norfolk five times over.
Since 2000, the Richmond metro area has grown 9.6 percent. That's double Hampton Roads' rate of 4.6 percent growth.
The population for the three metro areas in 2007 was: Northern Virginia 2.5 million; Hampton Roads 1.6 million; Richmond 1.2 million.
Staff writers Jen McCaffery, Harry Minium, Brian Root and Mike Saewitz contributed to this report.
Marc Davis, (757) 222-5131, marc.davis@pilotonline.com
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MarkS...
"I will be leaving this area as soon as I've retired and made my nest egg complete..."
It is the people like you that are over crowding the area to begin with... I will agree with you, I can't wait for you to leave also!!!
Lifelong resident
As a lifelong resident, I have to say Hampton Roads is absolutely souless. A cul-de-sac from i95 mostly filled with transients, this place is pretty dead. Sure we've got a few rappers, and props to them for representing our region, even if their hits encourage bringing guns into nightclubs (NERD - Lapdance I believe). But seriously, this place is dead. It's now overpriced. I missed out on real good opportunities by not relocating. Mistakes of my LIFE that I often regret. I'm happy where I'm working now, but if it went away, I'm not sure I'd want to stick around. And before you jump on my case, yes I *have* tried to change things in my own ways. Any younger person can see on facebook and myspace that the majority of classmates seem to move away. Our growth is probably equity locusts that are leaving higher priced metro areas to retire or perhaps think a big house in some boring cookie cutter suburb in Surprisingly boring Suffolk is better than living in a city with employers that make a difference in the world.
HR area Not growing
As a native of Norfolk I was a rareity in that my Famiily had been there for 300 years. We left way back in 1973 as things were getting too busy and taxes and land was going up and wages were not. I miss the old days of Minnonite farms, Chick's Beach, and tne old amusement park at Ocean View. I'd never move back up there. I still catch a Tide's game once in a while, but, that's about it. It's better in Coastal Carolina. It's like it was there 30 years ago!
when I said...
When I said that we should do something to combat the declining/slow growing population, I was more talking about the Norfolk area. I agree that people should not be moving out to Suffolk. I think it's kind of strange that Suffolk is included in the "Metro Area" anyways (especially at this time). Far more growth potential exists in Norfolk (specifically downtown). We need to rethink the way the metro area works. We need the downtown areas to be more densely populated. The cookie cutter houses in C'peake & Suffolk are kind of ridiculous. I'm not trying to offend anyone; I live in one of those types of houses in VB. I'm just saying that we wouldn't have quite so many transportation issues if more people lived in a more central location. Good luck!
Pretty obvious
Virginia Beach has lower crime, better schools, rec centers, beaches...everything people want for a higher quality of life. Why would you want to live in any other city in the area?
Color me gone!
Trust me...I will be leaving this area as soon as I've retired and made my nest egg complete. There is nothing in this area that I consider beautiful...the beach is half-rate and the area looks like it was leveled by an atom bomb...they should rename this area as "Flatland." The weather is absolutely awful...no spring or fall season whatsoever, and if you love humidity in the summer, there's plenty of it. Once I leave, I hope I never return.
Let's be honest
There are many people moving out of HR than moving in because it costs twice as much to live here than it did 8-10 years ago. But salaries have not doubled! There will be two classes left in HR.. rich and poor. Norfolk and Portsmouth schools can't meet SOLS. Now Ches and Suffolk are going to get trashed up. VB housing is too expensive for most people. Companies find it too expensive to do business with here. Traffic is a nightmare... and our local leaders want to add tolls! It's no wonder why all of the people who liked HR the way it was 15 years ago are leaving! Let's be honest here, more has not proven to be better. The only people I know that really like it here can afford a half-million dollar home. I grew up here but like many people moving out of here, I am starting to think there must be something better out there.
Land-Locked..
Norfolk & Portsmouth are both "land locked"..What kind of growth can you expect in those two cities even 20 years from now? No more land left to build on in those two areas but Chesapeake & Suffolk both have plenty of land left with Suffolk having the most probably. My family and I left the area 2 years ago due to all this excessive, improperly managed growth. The morning commute got to a point where it was pure hell and you might as well forget about even trying to make it home on a Friday afternoon or on a day before a three day weekend. Not to mention the summer tourist traffic jams from drivers who have never seen water or a tunnel under the water before. It was just too much to stand so we opted out of the state and are very, very happy. I keep up with your local news though for a good laugh though a couple times a week usually..Enjoy
Stagnant?
From the population changes since 2000 stated in the article, Norfolk has grown 1% while VB has grown 2%, one is considered "stagnant" while the other is considered "slow growing". Interesting choice of words.
Problem is--we're happy being smaller!
I think I can speak for many Suffolk residents when I say that we don't WANT more people in our town! I agree w/Thomas A: the more people, the more infrastructure, worse traffic, higher taxes, more crime....need I say more? We are already growing too big too fast and all indications are that Suffolk is becoming like Chesapeake, which apparently plans to leave no tree standing (again, agreeing w/Thomas A--just because we HAVE open land does NOT MEAN THAT WE HAVE TO DEVELOP IT!!!!). I give you Greenbrier as the most recent example, and Suffolk is moving in the same (wrong) direction. Western Chesapeake (northern Suffolk) is bad enough.
In other words--don't move to Suffolk to escape the development in the other cities, because we all know the development creep is contagious.
Keep development out of Suffolk proper (and certainly out of Western Suffolk where I live!) We're happy just the way we are, in a peaceful rural setting WITH TREES!. That's why we moved out here!
I agree bigger is not necessarily better....
MANY homes in Chesapeake are turning into rentals....I suspect some of the renters are coming from public housing areas in Norfolk and Portsmouth
because many have section 8 vouchers and are renting single family homes that would sell for over $200K. Amazing. But not a good thing, IMO. Just look at the Greenbrier area already. It is a huge dump. Oh the city leaders have that TIF thing and keep building, building, building in Greenbrier...meanwhile the huge influx of businesses' employees and more residents have turned the place into one big traffic jam surrounded by trash and those ugly median signs. The city doesn't remove the trash or the signs on a regular basis. I'm left trying to figure out just what my tax dollars are paying for.
Bigger does not mean Better
When speaking of cities. The larger the city, the more infrastructure it will need to operate safely which in turn means higher taxes for residents. Here in Chesapeake it seems as though the majority of our City Council visualizes turning Chesapeake into a mini New York City. Just because we have open land, does not mean that we have to develop every inch of it. Chesapeake can thrive with a well managed amount of growth, that does not steal our countryside feel. Unfortunately, we have seen a massive amount of unmanaged growth, which has approached on citizens' property, raised taxes, increased crime in certain communities and once homeowners move here and find out about the faulty real estate tax policy, they head to North Carolina. The leadership in our city has done everything except lead. At a time when reducing spending and easing taxation on citizens to coincide with what the federal government is trying to do, our city leadership continues on with non essential pet projects and the possibility of a 4%-7% increase of property taxes.
Growth in Suffolk is destroying it as a destination.
When we bought a house in Suffolk,it was quiet and still had woods and farm land in the Northern area.It was pleasant,quiet,and a good place to live.Now,with the developers rapidly destroying northern Suffolk with crappy,cookies-cutter developments dumping thousands more people on the local roads,and the rising taxes and fees that existing homeowners are paying to subsidize the developers' ruination of the area,it's actually quieter,by far,in the middle of the dying,dangerous city of Norfolk.Just 2 weeks ago,the developers of the massive,ugly development on College Drive cut a large gas pipe on Towne Point Rd. and very nearly blew up the surrounding homes.As a result of the noise of this massive project to overdevelop northern Suffolk,deer and foxes are being displaced into the local neighborhoods with destructive results for the homeowners and animals,a 4 lane 'road to no-where' is being built along Towne Point Rd. (sure to increase traffic that should be restricted to College Drive),and no buffer will exist for existing homeowners to cut the noise and intrusiveness of the development.That's progress to greedy developers and tax-crazed (and probably bribed) city officials.
BIGGER NOT NECESSARILY BETTER
I am not sure that more people in the Hampton Roads area is necessarily better. I think we are plenty big enough. Regardless of any of the city's population around here, the city councils are always saying they need more money and want to continue to tax you more. Look at Virginia Beach. With all of their tourism dollars and population, they talk of money needs. Traffic around here is terrible. I hate to see traffic continue to get worse. I just see no real advantage to being a bigger city, population wise in Hampton Roads.
Stagnant?
As a Norfolk resident, I have to object to the use of the word 'stagnant' to describe our city. 'Stagnant' is defined as "foul or stale from standing; Showing little or no sign of activity or advancement; not developing or progressing; inactive; lacking vitality or briskness; sluggish or dull." Just because our population isn't growing doesn't mean that Norfolk is any of these things. I would describe mile after mile of flimsy McMansion farms, strip malls, treeless streets, and chain restaurants as stagnant, but that's just me.
Not hard to figure out why
Just take a look at the schools in Norfolk and Portsmouth. I can't speak for Suffolk, but the only areas in Chesapeake that are still growing are the areas with decent schools (I'm speaking of parental involvement not curriculum). Those of us who live in these "growth" areas put up with too much traffic, inadequate drinking water,and flooding because every square inch of green space is paved or roofed. Thanks Chesapeake for "managing" the growth. Great leadership...NOT!
We should do something
We should do something to combat the Hampton Roads population decline/slow growth! This is really an awesome area in which to live. Virginia/VB is consistently ranked at the top of best places to do business. We just need to do a better job of attracting the large businesses here.
It's no big surprise that Norfolk is stagnant...
Our city council and the idiotic decisions they make are the only explanation that I can conceive of. As some other people have said in other comment threads here, it's time to vote them OUT and enact term limits!