Economist says tough growing may be ahead for cotton farmers

FRANKLIN

Strong markets for other crops are pulling valuable Virginia farmland out of cotton, a Cooperative Extension economist with Texas A&M told cotton farmers Wednesday.

"We have a very healthy supply of cotton," John Robinson said. "In west Texas, we had an exceptional year. It rained in July. That never happens. And we had an exceptional fall, with perfect night temperatures."

That means that the world is looking at a surplus of more than 19 million bales.

"That's an awful lot of cotton to digest," Robinson said. In the United States, "we need to be shipping about 381,00 bales a week, and we're not getting there."

Robinson said he sees decent cotton prices the rest of this year - likely 80 cents a pound or higher by the end of the year - and higher prices for next year, up to $1 a pound.

But anything could change the market, Robinson said: a hurricane in the Mississippi Delta region, a drought in west Texas, where more than half of the world's supply is grown, or continued dry weather in the South.

"Whatever happens in China will be a 'complete surprise,' " Robinson said.

He said that country, which has the most textile mills and the biggest demand, could decide later this year that it needs millions of bales, or the Chinese government might "find" 500 million bales of "forgotten cotton," somewhere in a warehouse. China, he said, is never easy to predict.

For about 75 Virginia and North Carolina cotton farmers gathered at Paul D. Camp Community College in Franklin, the decisions won't be easy. Robinson said he foresees Virginia's acres declining by another 6 percent or so this growing season.

Meanwhile, Virginia's boll weevil eradication program marches on. For the past several years, the bright, lime green weevil traps have grown more scarce across the cotton-producing area, from the Eastern Shore to Greensville County. This year, there will be even fewer traps, said Larry Nichols of the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Plans are to have only one of the traps set up on every square mile near land that's producing cotton, Nichols said.

The eradication program will have half the number of traps it had last year. To support the program, farmers will pay an assessment of $3 an acre for land on which cotton is grown.

"We're working to keep the assessment down," Nichols said. "Virginia is so far away from any known infestation."

There remains a question about whether Virginia Tech will replace the regional cotton expert, Joel Faircloth, who recently resigned that position at the Tidewater Agricultural Research and Extension Center in Suffolk.

Like other state institutions, "Virginia Tech is under a 5 percent budget reduction," noted Philip Edwards, an Isle of Wight grower and chairman of the Virginia Cotton Growers Association. "If the budget constraints continue, they probably won't be able to fill the position."

Linda McNatt, (757) 222-5561, linda.mcnatt@pilotonline.com