Poll: Obama, McCain hold big leads going into Virginia primary

Sen. Barack Obama holds a solid lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton among Virginia Democrats and may be in position to win Tuesday's critical state primary election, according to a new poll.
In Virginia's Republican contest, Sen. John McCain holds a two-to-one advantage over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as he continues to glide to what many say is an inevitable GOP nomination.
The Democratic nomination, however, is anything but settled, and Obama and Clinton are campaigning vigorously in Virginia. Obama led Clinton, 53 percent to 37 percent, in a telephone survey of 400 likely voters in the Democratic primary. The poll was conducted Thursday and Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington.
Mason-Dixon also surveyed 400 likely voters in the state's Republican primary. Fifty-five percent favored the Arizonan McCain, 27 percent preferred Huckabee, and 5 percent sided with U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, said the outcome is basically "a done deal in Virginia."
Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois who would become the first black president if elected, held a commanding lead over Clinton among black Virginians who were polled. Eighty-two percent of blacks backed Obama, compared with 9 percent for Clinton, a New York senator.
Among whites, 49 percent favored Clinton, and 41 percent preferred Obama.
Obama's lead in Hampton Roads, where 62 percent of voters polled support him compared to 27 percent for Clinton, is the largest of any region in the state.
Clinton, who if elected would become the first female president, has tepid support among women in Virginia according to the poll, with Obama claiming 49 percent to her 41 percent.
Both candidates are well-regarded by Virginia Democrats. Seventy percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of Obama, and 60 percent said they had positive feelings about Clinton.
When asked for the most important qualities in a candidate, Democrats polled were almost evenly split between a politician who is honest, can bring change, cares about issues or has the right experience.
Among those who want change, 76 percent of those polled backed Obama and 15 percent supported Clinton. Among those who want experience, 83 percent favored Clinton and 6 percent preferred Obama.
Asked to identify the most important issue, 38 percent of the Democrats polled said the economy and jobs, 22 percent chose health care, 20 percent said the Iraq war, and 10 percent pointed to national security and terrorism.
Clinton was a slight favorite of those concerned with the economy - 47 percent preferred her, and 41 percent liked Obama.
Among those most concerned with Iraq, 58 percent favored Obama, and 3 3 percent supported Clinton.
The Democratic results in Virginia closely mirror a survey of 501 state party voters conducted Thursday by InsiderAdvantage, a national polling firm.
Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, downplayed the InsiderAdvantage result during a telephone news conference on Saturday. He noted that a poll in California last weekend showed Obama with a 13 percentage point lead even though Clinton won the state primary a few days later.
"We by no means accept the poll," he said.
While the statewide poll favors Obama, the selection of delegates who will choose the next Democratic presidential nominee will also depend on what voters decide Tuesday in each of the state's 11 congressional districts. Fifty-four of Virginia's Democratic delegates will be apportioned roughly in proportion to the primary returns in each congressional district. An additional 29 will be apportioned based on statewide vote totals.
In the state's GOP primary, the top vote-getter receives all the delegates to the national convention.
McCain had significant leads in almost all age, group and geographic categories.
The poll shows McCain and Huckabee, a Baptist minister, running virtually even among self-described Christian evangelicals. Huckabee leads only among Republicans who consider themselves "very conservative" and those who said they are most concerned with moral issues.
Conservatives have criticized McCain as being weak on immigration and supportive of same-sex marriage and campaign finance reforms. McCain has vowed to patch relations with the GOP's right wing.
Asked to identify the most important issue, 32 percent of Republicans surveyed said national security and terrorism, 27 percent chose economy and jobs, and 14 percent said moral and family issues.
Huckabee appears to be running even with McCain in Southwest Virginia. McCain seems to have enormous advantages in all other regions of the state, including 59 percent in Hampton Roads to 27 percent for Huckabee.
The margin of error for both polls is plus or minus 5 percentage points. The margin or error for subset groups, such as black and white voters, is significantly higher.
Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com