Will a warmer Ireland wear a lot less green?

Just in time for St. Patrick's Day, Irish and American scientists have published a report on how global warming is slowly changing Ireland - including in ways that are being seen in Virginia.

The most dramatic impact described in the report by the Irish Climate Project is how the Emerald Isle might become the Brown Isle in many parts of the country, the result of changing rain patterns and hotter, drier summers.

"You tell people in Dublin that the climate might be like the Mediterranean coast and their initial reaction is, 'So what? That'll be nice in the summer,' " said Kevin Sweeney, the project leader from the University of California. "Then in about five minutes, it sinks in. And these same people are like, 'Oh my God, that won't be same Ireland anymore.' "

A rise in sea level is the biggest concern in coastal Virginia and North Carolina, where low-lying marshes and barrier islands are likely to flood more easily or simply be covered with water in the next century.

But in Ireland, according to the report, rising seas are an issue only along the lower, softer east coast of the country, where erosion and disappearing wetlands already are being documented.

On the west coast of Ireland, sea level rise is not expected to play a role in the future, given the famed cliffs and rocky highlands that dominate that part of the country, scientists say.

Side effects of climate change that Ireland and Virginia would share include earlier springs, later falls, increased susceptibility to major storms and flooding, and slightly different growing seasons that could alter farming practices and natural species.

According to the report, the renowned potato crop in Ireland might suffer from global warming.

Potatoes are highly dependent on adequate and reliable water supplies. And with drought predicted to occur more often the potato "may cease to be a commercially viable crop in Ireland" during the next 100 years, the report says.

The report, titled "Changing Shades of Green," stems from combined research in Ireland and the U.S. and was financed by the Rockefeller Family Fund, the Bipartisan Policy Center and the Henry P. Kendall Foundation.

The Pew Environmental Group is helping to distribute the report to American media outlets and scientific organizations, said Erik DuMont, a group spokesman in Virginia.

DuMont said timing the report's release to St. Patrick's Day was "definitely our plan."

"Everyone has an image of Ireland, and we wanted to use that connection in making this information meaningful to the public on the one day that most people associate with the Irish," he said.

The report applies many of the assumptions about global warming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a collection of scientists from around the world.

The IPCC, which shared a Nobel Peace Prize last year with former Vice President Al Gore, concluded in 2007 that it is "very likely" - a 90 percent certainty - that human activities have caused most of the observed increases in global temperatures since the mid-20th century.

The Ireland report, though, is more than just raw science. It also includes descriptions and anecdotes from Irish poets, artists, farmers and fishermen about the cultural shifts that global warming is bringing to the land of Eire.

Filmmaker Dermot Somers, for example, wrote this observation about the changing landscape of his native country:

"When you get very abrupt drenches, these sudden downpours of heavy rain and severe wind, the process doesn't work anymore. So many of the things a filmmaker might seek or that a visitor might crave - wildflowers and very subtle colors - are all scraped away by these dramatic weather events."

The report said average temperature increases on the island have been about the same as elsewhere, including Virginia, over the past century - about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit. But in Ireland, as in Virginia, the pace has really picked up since the 1980s.

In addressing sea level rise, the report uses "a pretty conservative" number of 0.5 meters over the next 100 years, said Carl Hershner, a scientist at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.

For Virginia, the current range of expected rising seas is about 0.7 meters to 1 meter by 2100, Hershner said - a change that would increase flooding, swamp wetlands and submerge some islands off the Eastern Shore.

"We're expected to experience about twice what the Irish folks are showing" with rising seas, Hershner said.

Scott Harper, (757) 446-2340, scott.harper@pilotonline.com