Hurricane projections: Nightmare traffic, more flooding

A Hampton Roads family fleeing a Category 2 hurricane could face a 15-hour trek up Interstate 64 and then only make it to the outskirts of Richmond before the storm hit, according to new data shared Wednesday with regional planners.

Updated population figures and the state's continuing failure to address transportation congestion are making hurricane preparations more worrisome as the region grows, regional leaders said.

New data also show that Hampton Roads coastal and inland tidal regions could face more severe storm surge flooding because of higher sea levels.

Old storm surge maps were based on U.S. government data set to a 1923 sea level

benchmark, while newer projections account for seas that are up to a foot higher today, said T. Stewart Baker, hurricane program manager for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management.

Older surge maps also were based on 19-year tidal averages, he said, while newer ones calculate surges on the maximum water height in a tidal cycle to account for the worst possible conditions.

The surge maps and projected evacuation times are the latest findings in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the Gulf Coast in 2005, Baker said.

"That was the first time people had actually been stranded for extended periods of time while part of a major evacuation," he said. "That's why it is part of emergency planning today."

He presented the information to the Metropolitan Planning Organization, a regional group that has fought for years to improve transportation funding.

"If people are serious about evacuating, then they need to go when first notified," Baker said after his presentation. "If they fail to heed that advice, then they will face the longer transit times."

Baker defined an evacuation as the period when people began to leave a region until the onset of tropical force winds, which is when many regional tunnels and bridges are closed to traffic because of weather conditions. A Category 2 storm has winds of 96 to 110 mph with storm surge of 6 to 8 feet.

The 15-hour evacuation time could be cut roughly in half if Virginia ordered eastbound lanes on I-64 reversed, but such plans have previously been reserved for much stronger and potentially more catastrophic storms that are Category 3 and above.

A lane reversal would largely benefit residents of Norfolk and Virginia Beach north of

I-264. Residents on the Peninsula would be expected to use westbound lanes as they do today, while Portsmouth and Chesapeake residents would flee west along U.S. 460,

Va. 58, and Va. 17.

Evacuation preceding a Category 3 hurricane produced more sobering data. This type of storm, with higher winds and more destructive force, tends to create more traffic congestion because a larger number of people would flee.

A Category 3 storm heading for landfall here could leave people inching their way up

I-64 for almost 28 hours, meaning many would likely ride out the storm from the interstate as it made landfall, the data showed. Category 3 storms have winds of 111 to 130 mph with storm surge of 9 to 12 feet.

Their ordeal would be eased somewhat if the eastbound lanes were reversed, reducing the estimated time to 15 hours and 30 minutes, officials said.

Virginia has never ordered the eastbound lanes of I-64 reversed to ease an evacuation from Hampton Roads, although the Virginia Department of Transportation and the Virginia State Police have run drills, most recently in May. Such an order can come only from the governor.

As part of its efforts to prepare for the worst, Virginia has installed manually operated gates at the entrance and exit ramps of I-64 and portions of other interstates to manage traffic.

It also has contracted with private companies to place portable toilets, fuel and other amenities along evacuation routes, mostly I-64, in the event of a major emergency.

"All families in Hampton Roads absolutely need to have a family plan on an evacuation," said Dennis W. Heuer, VDOT's district administrator for Hampton Roads. "They need to know when they will go, and in many instances that means they're leaving when the sun is shining," he said.

"It's alarming," said Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim, chairman of the planning group. "With the growth in population and the lack of improvement in transportation, we are going to have significant problems evacuating people."

Because evacuation models project severe conditions, state planners said the findings mean more work, such as relocating structures that are in flood-prone areas, must be done to improve shelters in Hampton Roads.

The study showed that Hampton Roads has enough shelters to meet the needs for a Category 1 hurricane, but that a deficit shows up for all larger storms.

Shelter demand in a Category 2 storm is projected to be 36,223 spaces. The region has about 2,700.

Tom Holden, (757) 446-2331, tom.holden@pilotonline.com