A Hampton Roads family fleeing a Category 2 hurricane could face a 15-hour trek up Interstate 64 and then only make it to the outskirts of Richmond before the storm hit, according to new data shared Wednesday with regional planners.
Updated population figures and the state's continuing failure to address transportation congestion are making hurricane preparations more worrisome as the region grows, regional leaders said.
New data also show that Hampton Roads coastal and inland tidal regions could face more severe storm surge flooding because of higher sea levels.
Old storm surge maps were based on U.S. government data set to a 1923 sea level
benchmark, while newer projections account for seas that are up to a foot higher today, said T. Stewart Baker, hurricane program manager for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management.
Older surge maps also were based on 19-year tidal averages, he said, while newer ones calculate surges on the maximum water height in a tidal cycle to account for the worst possible conditions.
The surge maps and projected evacuation times are the latest findings in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the Gulf Coast in 2005, Baker said.
"That was the first time people had actually been stranded for extended periods of time while part of a major evacuation," he said. "That's why it is part of emergency planning today."
He presented the information to the Metropolitan Planning Organization, a regional group that has fought for years to improve transportation funding.
"If people are serious about evacuating, then they need to go when first notified," Baker said after his presentation. "If they fail to heed that advice, then they will face the longer transit times."
Baker defined an evacuation as the period when people began to leave a region until the onset of tropical force winds, which is when many regional tunnels and bridges are closed to traffic because of weather conditions. A Category 2 storm has winds of 96 to 110 mph with storm surge of 6 to 8 feet.
The 15-hour evacuation time could be cut roughly in half if Virginia ordered eastbound lanes on I-64 reversed, but such plans have previously been reserved for much stronger and potentially more catastrophic storms that are Category 3 and above.
A lane reversal would largely benefit residents of Norfolk and Virginia Beach north of
I-264. Residents on the Peninsula would be expected to use westbound lanes as they do today, while Portsmouth and Chesapeake residents would flee west along U.S. 460,
Va. 58, and Va. 17.
Evacuation preceding a Category 3 hurricane produced more sobering data. This type of storm, with higher winds and more destructive force, tends to create more traffic congestion because a larger number of people would flee.
A Category 3 storm heading for landfall here could leave people inching their way up
I-64 for almost 28 hours, meaning many would likely ride out the storm from the interstate as it made landfall, the data showed. Category 3 storms have winds of 111 to 130 mph with storm surge of 9 to 12 feet.
Their ordeal would be eased somewhat if the eastbound lanes were reversed, reducing the estimated time to 15 hours and 30 minutes, officials said.
Virginia has never ordered the eastbound lanes of I-64 reversed to ease an evacuation from Hampton Roads, although the Virginia Department of Transportation and the Virginia State Police have run drills, most recently in May. Such an order can come only from the governor.
As part of its efforts to prepare for the worst, Virginia has installed manually operated gates at the entrance and exit ramps of I-64 and portions of other interstates to manage traffic.
It also has contracted with private companies to place portable toilets, fuel and other amenities along evacuation routes, mostly I-64, in the event of a major emergency.
"All families in Hampton Roads absolutely need to have a family plan on an evacuation," said Dennis W. Heuer, VDOT's district administrator for Hampton Roads. "They need to know when they will go, and in many instances that means they're leaving when the sun is shining," he said.
"It's alarming," said Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim, chairman of the planning group. "With the growth in population and the lack of improvement in transportation, we are going to have significant problems evacuating people."
Because evacuation models project severe conditions, state planners said the findings mean more work, such as relocating structures that are in flood-prone areas, must be done to improve shelters in Hampton Roads.
The study showed that Hampton Roads has enough shelters to meet the needs for a Category 1 hurricane, but that a deficit shows up for all larger storms.
Shelter demand in a Category 2 storm is projected to be 36,223 spaces. The region has about 2,700.
Tom Holden, (757) 446-2331, tom.holden@pilotonline.com
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RE: HEH
You are absolutely correct
heh
There's more wind on these boards than any hurricane could ever produce...
to georges61555:
What does being fortunate have to do with being prepared for an emergency?
georges
Please see the final line of the advice I gave in a lower post. Many of us wil lstay regardless of intensity of hurricane. Out of power for a week one poster said? Get real, we were out 2 weeks here after Isabelle which was a joke of a storm. Trust me, I have lived in areas that have real storms. Those of you who feel that the power being out is your biggest fear need to split. If a real storm does come here the quality of construction here is nothing compared w/ many properties further south. However, a hurricane needs warm water to stay strong. Most storms that reach this area do so in September. You are in about as safe a coastal area as you can be. I have lived in Hampton Roads since 1984 and no hurricane has made a direct hit on this region. Some people like to say so but it is not a fact. This is not a subject to debate georges, it is one to help each other. I personally will be armed with gas, food, beer, batteries, chain saw, a last resort safe place within my structure, and a gun.
RE: Being prepared
"As for this area, I hope that those of you who think you can ride out any storm, think again."
I totally agree with you, I think people forget Willoughby Spit was created by a hurricane, and while we have been lucky for the past couple years this could just as easily be the year when we could see major damage. What I would like to know is what do senior citizens and people who don't have a vehicle do. The city of Norfolk isn't even prepared to let people know when shelters are open, then there is the problem, for some, of getting to them.
I've ead people say they will ride it out, and I'm sure before Katrina hit many people were saying the same thing and ended up in devastation or dead.
just some thoughts
Biloxi, Miss. on Hwy 90 on Casino Rowe had 10 foot light poles that marked the water line for Hurricane Camille. The folks on the Gulf Coast of Miss. who survived Camille, believed nothing could ever be worse and planned according to what they knew. Katrina proved them wrong. The 20-30 foot tidal surge proved them wrong. Pass Christian was wiped off the map. I met 100s who survived Katrina with the clothes on their backs and no houses to go back to. Hurricane Georges in 1998 a small Cat 1, left huge portions of Pascagoula, Gautier and Ocean Springs without power for almost a week, and nearly everyone sustained some type of damage to their home or property. 50 miles outside of town, trees were toppled like match sticks. A year later there were areas in Pascagoula that were still cleaning up from that small storm. New Orleans suffered a severe flood, caused by the effects of Katrina, but not Katrina herself. Isabella a small Cat 1, knocked this area for a loop. If a truly big storm
ever hits this area, this area will be more than devastated.
Being prepared is never a bad idea
I lived in this area for 10 years and not once did this area receive a hit from a Hurricane. The year I left Isabelle blew through and I was told that the area I was moving to in Florida was rarely hit more than once every 6 or 7 years. Then comes Hurricane Season 2004. Hurricane Ivan blows through. 2005, Tropical storm Arlene, Tropical storm (later upgraded to hurricane) Cindy, then came Hurricane Dennis and finally the outer bands of Hurricane Katrina. In a 2 year time span that area was hit with 20 years worth of Hurricanes and or tropical storms. After moving BACK to this area in 2006 I can say that I no longer believe what anyone tells me. There are other factors at work other than just oceanic temperatures when it comes to predicting a hurricane season. Had the trade winds been favorable we could have easily seen the same kind of activities, but so far we have been fortunate. As for this area, I hope that those of you who think you can ride out any storm, think again. Ivan brought an estimated 18 to 20 foot storm surge and inundated areas previously believed safe from storm surge. I keep a disaster kit ready at all times. I urge all of you to do the same.
Hurricane preparedness
......it's called "COMMON SENSE", folks.
I hate it when I agree with Big Mike & Rose
But I agree wholeheartedly. This area has been innundated with Yankee transplants who don't know crap from shinola. They certainly don't understand that the average citizen can ride out pretty much anything mother nature throws at us with a little bit of preparation. Also, the local media is all too eager to push the panic button whenever the skies cloud over. I frankly get tired of Don Slater interrupting one of the rare tv shows I watch to alert me of a coming thunderstorm (or snow flurry, or whatever). C'mon!
Of course, if you live in a trailer or Sandbridge take some extra precautions. As for the rest of us, if you lose power light candles.
Remember, this area has not been hit by anything larger than a CAT 3 in recorded history.
Re: Evacuation
"Our home is fully equipped with at least a months worth of food, water (pool and well), generator, plenty of gas (from the cars), plenty of comfort, way above (22ft) above the nearby river and strong enough to make it through any storm we'll see with minimal damage. I can't understand why people can't or won't look out and provide for themselves."
Not everyone is as fortunate as you are or have you not noticed?
Good Job...
All this hype and they don't tell you where the "new" flood maps are...
Simple really
Self reliance for a week is a safe plan. Where I live it is two weeks. In the country, we even send out teams of residents to clear our own roads. Nobody is coming to helps us. Here are some basic suggestions, some are redundant:
manual can opener, flashlights and lanterns, useable grill, and generator. Have fuel for all of these things. CFL lanterns use very little juice and the batteries last longer. Candles. Bug Spray! Check your batteries and replace. Run your generator once a month for ten minuttes and treat your fuel. Keep good gas. If you do use your car as fuel storage, be careful and make sure you can access the fuel to get it out. Leave no loose items outdoors. They become missiles for you and your neighbors. Trim and thin your trees. Remove those close to the home or are tall enough to reach your roof line. Call your insurance agent and discuss what your limits and coverage SHOULD be, not whats cheapest. Non perishable food such as canned foods. Don't forget the pets. If possible remove low lying appliances in danger of flooding. If your scared, say your scared and leave. You can never have enough beer.
Evacuate? No thanks.
Our home is fully equipped with at least a months worth of food, water (pool and well), generator, plenty of gas (from the cars), plenty of comfort, way above (22ft) above the nearby river and strong enough to make it through any storm we'll see with minimal damage. I can't understand why people can't or won't look out and provide for themselves. I agree with bigmike about the "transplants" making a big deal about nothing. I've lived here all my life and have never seen a storm that would justify evacuating and having to put up with long term discomfort and questionable safety of a shelter. If you're going to live near the coast, you should learn how to survive a major storm.
Hurricane Preparedness II
To add to some very worthy suggestions previously stated:
JB: Food, water, med supplies, pet food, etc.
Dr. T: Firearms, and ammo
And don't forget communications devices, like CB radios. Cell towers could go down and cell phones might not work. A good old CB (citizen's band) radio can be hooked up to your car battery for power and the folks who really know what going on with the roads, truckers, can best advise on routes, etc.
Preparedness is the best plan. If you're not flooded out, then hunkering down at home until things clear up or a realistic time allowing for local, state, and federal agencies to kick in, may be better than clogging the roads up. It's advisable for people to maintain 5-7 days worth of supplies so that they can weather storm instead of becoming refugees. If you do have to hit the road, bring the supplies along because anywhere close will be cleaned out. Buy some nice plastic tubs to store it all in and you're ready to go.
Websites like Equipped to Survive are great places for emergency gear analysis and information. It's a preparedness website, not a survivalist site.
http://www.equipped.org/
Hurricane Preparedness
JB,
You are wise to prepare a kit for hurricane readiness. However, if you want to hold on to those supplies when you need them, you might want to add a proper defensive firearm and an adequate supply of ammunition to your kit.
On of the things that is lost when our communications system breaks down is rapid response from law enforcement.
No vote of confidence
Why would anyone listen to a weather fore-guesser? The only weather they seem to get right is yesterdays! With all the super-dupper- tripler-viper-mega-scan radars, they still miss the rain. And when something does happen, they all dance around like giddy school-girls on prom night. Give it up. Instead of trying to figure out what might happen months from now, work on tomorrows weather. When you can get that right, people might start to believe you again.
how foolish this panic article is.
This whole thing is foolish. When was the last time this area was evacuated? Answer to that question is; NEVER. There are some low lying area's here that will need to worry about flooding. There are some people that are dumb enough to have huge trees too close to their houses. There are some (mostly trailers) homes that do not fair well in high winds. But for the most part, all this hype is the result of transplants that have relocated to this area. Any native to this area know's how to ride out hurricanes and north-easterners. The hurricane gates are somebody's conn job. Any native knows that in the unlikely event you would want to evacuate, you could move inland by traveling either direction, across to Hampton and then up or west, or you could go to Rt58 in Bowers Hill and then move inland. This is just a huge waste of tax dollars. New Orleans is below sea level that's why they flooded, we don't have that problem here. NO is also loaded with people too lazy to help themselves, not so here. Our only problem is panicky transplants.
hurricane season is coming...
We may not get the "big one" this year, but hurricane season comes the same time every year. It is YOUR responsibility to be prepare in case of any kind of natural disaster. Have a plan, a lay in a few supplies. I am not a sky-is-falling kind of person, but giving a little forethought to a possible threat doesn't hurt either. We keep a small tote filled with basic supplies in the garage during hurricane season. Some canned foods, a manual can opener, flashlight and batteries, battery operated radio, paper products and a small first aid kit. That way, in case of an evacuation, it would take us less time to prepare. After hurricane season, we donate the food we wouldn't normally eat to the food pantry. Don't forget about your pets. If you wait too long to evacuate, you will have to leave your pets behind if you go to a local shelter. I will help you if you are elderly or disabled. Cities need to identify the folks who will need help, and match them up with someone who will get them to safety. Think ahead a little, people, and take responsibility for yourself!!!
What are you all worried about??
The "BIG ONE" will never come here, ever. Pat Robertson will simply pray it away like the last one. And if he cannot do that despite his best effort, it will only be because, as he stated for New Orleans, God decided to punish Hampton Roads for it's sinning... It's just that simple!
It's not FEMA's job
Despite Blanco and Nagin shamelessly trying to cover their butts by blaming FEMA for their incompetence, it's not the federal agencies job to plan for this stuff. It's squarely on the shoulders of the Mayors and Governors to make the plans. When a major storm hits, transporting anything becomes next to impossible for quite a while. It's all about the long term planning and making sure people can get out, and those that can't, are adequately supplied BEFORE the storm hits. Katrina taught us "ignore and blame" is not an effective strategy.