Emergency management officials got a chuckle out of a recent study that places Hampton Roads as the fourth-most-vulnerable urban area in the country for a terrorist attack – ahead of New York and Washington.
But when they stopped laughing, they realized they can use the study to their advantage by seeking more federal homeland security dollars.
A separate report sent to the Department of Homeland Security two weeks ago estimates Virginia will need more than a half-billion dollars to meet its protection goals within three years.
“Certainly, our position would be that Hampton Roads is important and rates protective measures at a fairly high order, probably right after the national capital region,” said Steven Mondul, deputy assistant to the governor for commonwealth preparedness.
“Let’s just say that it’s interesting,” Mondul said of the study. “We could use it to try to get more money.”
Hampton Roads placed ahead of both the D.C. region and New York City, as well as Houston and Philadelphia. Richmond was seventh on the list of vulnerable urban areas, according to the study, researched and authored by three university professors and sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security.
The report has been criticized for not having any major Midwest or West Coast city in the top 10. In fact, the study found Boise, Idaho, as the 10th most vulnerable urban area.
New Orleans, Baton Rouge, La., and Charleston, S.C., rated higher on the vulnerability scale than Norfolk.
First published in the December issue of the journal Risk Analysis, the report was defended by its lead author, Walter W. Piegorsch, a mathematics professor at the University of Arizona.
Piegorsch said he and his associates were as surprised as anyone at the results, but the statistical methodology they used is considered valid in the scientific community.
“We all looked at the numbers and said, 'Wow,’” he said in a phone interview Friday. “This was a real knowledge discovery.”
Piegorsch noted that the study is not intended to show a region’s “likelihood” of a terrorist attack but whether the area is more or less vulnerable to an attack. Factors considered were socioeconomic, geophysical hazards, infrastructure and history of terrorist attacks.
Hampton Roads places so high on the list, in part, because of its high number of bridges and tunnels, its home to the largest Navy base in the world and the third-largest port on the East Coast, and evacuation difficulties. Susceptibility to hurricanes, though a natural hazard, also factored in, Piegorsch said.
The statistical study was culled from 34 years’ worth of data, from 1970 to 2004, comparing 132 cities and urban areas. Piegorsch acknowledged that improved protective measures taken in Hampton Roads in the past three years were not factored into the results. For example, a detailed evacuation plan, which involves reversing highways, was finalized last year. That would have lowered the region’s score had it been considered in the study.
In addition, the fact that the region never has faced a terrorist attack actually weighed against it. Cities that have been attacked, such as New York, for example, have become better prepared as a result, Piegorsch said. Local emergency management officials said they had not seen the study, but when told of its conclusions, some said they were surprised Hampton Roads would be considered more vulnerable than Washington or New York. But some were not surprised.
“Local law enforcement and emergency management officials in Hampton Roads have long argued that our region is a target-rich environment, and thus at a higher risk,” Virginia Beach Police Chief Alfred M. “Jake” Jacocks said in an e-mail.
Regional officials had to push the Department of Homeland Security several years ago to be placed on a list of urban areas most susceptible to a terrorist attack in order to receive special funding. Jacocks said the study hopefully will help the region continue to receive the annual dollars.
Ron Keys, Norfolk’s director of emergency management and response, said he could understand why Hampton Roads placed so high on the list.
“Although smaller in size, we still have the same threats as the larger cities like New York,” he said.
What will come of the study’s results is unknown, but a Department of Homeland Security official said they wouldn’t mean more protection money for the region.
“This is not a report that will affect our risk modeling or our distribution of grants,” said department spokeswoman Amy Cudwa . However, she added that the report is still being evaluated and that it was just one of 613 papers completed in fiscal 2007.
Piegorsch said he has reviewed the report with government officials, including the FBI, but does not know what, if anything, will come of it.
“I’m hoping they do some things to improve our security and improve our ability to respond to terrorist incidents,” he said.
Jacocks warned that people have become too complacent in the 6 ½ years since the 2001 terrorist attacks and hopes this report will be an eye-opener.
“We need our citizens to remain vigilant to potential signs of both criminal acts and acts of terrorism,” he said.
Meanwhile, state officials submitted to the Department of Homeland Security a 153-page State Preparedness Report, an outline of efforts made to boost protection and the future homeland security needs for the state.
The report lists $568 million in needs including improved emergency communications systems, new emergency shelters and chemical, biological and nuclear protection equipment.
Michael Cline, state coordinator of emergency management, said he expects the state to receive 10 to 50 percent of those funding requests.
“We’re not going to get enough money to solve the problems in any given year,” he said in a phone interview Friday. “That’s part of what studies like this and the National Response Plan does. It helps you prioritize.”
Tim McGlone, (757) 446-2343,tim.mcglone@pilotonline.com
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Hey, Wspeid.....think again!
Wspeid's comment that I "haven't visited New York got to me. Not only have I "visited New York".....I WORKED in New York. Two trains and a subway every day to Park Avenue, then up 24 floors to my job.
I've been alone on those streets and on subway platforms late at night, after all the other "suits" went home. I ended up in train stations with people I'd rather forget about. Don't tell me about New York.
Once I moved down here.....it was heaven on earth. People look you in the eye and smile; most are friendly and courteous. And, if you stay out of the combat zones, you should be just fine.
Another line of defense exists down here against terrorists....it's called a CHP. Try getting that in New York.
When it's convenient
Bush has always waived the terrorist flag to change the subject and not deal with issues at hand. And you know what? For many Republicans it's worked. The terrorist flag is still being waived in Iraq, and will continue to fly high if McCain becomes president.
Besides...
Any funding that Kaine receives from the Feds could just be used for roads... sorry we know that will never happen, he would just forward it on to pet projects then claim we need more money to shore up our defenses.
on a personal note, we must all thank the developers in this area. Not only do they provide jobs but they have built a mighty formidable flood wall on the coast in the form of hotels. glad to see that someone took the Cumbra Veija threat to heart and started protecting us from a mega tsunami.
:-)
It Only Takes 6 People
Yep, just 6 and less then $5000.00 could shut this place down for a few weeks and harm hundreds. That is no joke. Security here is the joke. We need all the help we can get.
Obviously Don's another person who's never visited NY
As anyone from NY who has moved down here will tell you, the amount, severity and tolerance for crime down here frightens the heck out of us. You all certainly do have a humorous knack for randomly pointing fingers at other people based on no data and saying, "at least we're not them"... but whatever helps you sleep better at night.
Weak telecommunications infrastructure?
I've heard rumors but have no evidence that the telecommunications infrastructure coming into this region is very weak. Mainly the interconnects to other LATAs are few, and I guess on the bridges. Can anyone clarify? I know that when it comes to business data services Hampton Roads is a joke. The data centers are laughable, simple outside attacks against Cox business customers have brought Cox's business network to it's knees a few times (DDOS attacks). As far as terror threats, like most of America I doubt the terrorists know about Hampton Roads, nor care. This region is nothing but a backwoods community around a couple of Navy bases. Real metro areas that matter would be attacked first. DC, NYC, etc.
I'm with Don
Anyone who lived in this town in the 80s remembers well being told that, this being home to the largest naval station in the country, we were among the first targets in case of nuclear war. Yet we got on with our lives.
But now, under the supposed threat of terrorism, we've reached a fever pitch of paranoia. What better testimony is there that Anne S, despite living in one of the safest countries on the planet, says she worries about the risk of terrorist attacks every times she crosses a bridge or tunnel?
Compared to heart disease, automobile accidents, cancer, etc, terrorism is a trivial threat. We should give up on the fear-mongering and live as free, confident Americans.
Safer than the New York subways.
I am getting sick and tired of the press and the government waving their latest bogeyman....al-Qaeda....in our faces.
At least the Nazis and Commies were formidable foes. I remember when we were worried that the Russians were going to go nuclear on us, and bomb us into oblivion. Then, they tanked, and we needed another big bad wolf to keep our citizenry in a constant state of fear and anxiety. Enter al-Qaeda, basically a few thousand Sunni radicals, primarily Saudis, plus a rag-tag assortment of other nationalities. This relatively small group of extremists is causing the greatest Country in the world to go running around like Chicken Little, crying that the sky is falling.
Let's get real. We need good intel and lots of government spooks to get rid of these guys, not a reincarnation of Patton's Army. I feel a hell of a lot safer here, than I did on those New York City subways!
Irresponsible Editing
A laughing matter? To embellish an article is one thing but to exhibit journalistic cynicism is inexcusable. Shame on the editor who did not do their job to correct this miscue. I'm laughing at the lame manner in which this story is presented.
fearmongering for money
Since you are more likely to be struck by lightning than die from 'terrorism', how about some funding for that too?
WE KNOW WHO IS LAUGHING
Pay attention to the manner in which this topic is introduced. The Va Pilot template to the story indicates that local officials "got a chuckle" out of the report indicating that the Tidewater area is the fourth most vulnerable area for an attAck by foreign or domestic groups. Nowhere in the article are officials qouted as taking this matter lightly or laughing about the possibility of an attack. I believe it's the writer/editor of this article that's laughing concering such a possiblity. The lead template to this story may be more indicative of how the Va Pilot writer feels of this story and not local officials. But, then again, what else is new? The Virginia Pilot is a mere mouthpiece for the New York Times. Any and all attempts to arouse the citizens to a potential foreign or domestic threat will be treated as fear-mongering rabble.PRINT THAT VA PILOT STAFFERS.
Re HMM...The Forest For The Trees
In the last comment concerning evacuation...I seem to have disregarded the Atlantic Ocean as a means of escape in a disastrous emergency. We have an entire fleet, and numerous sea worthy vessels in the immediate area. We are far better equipped than than the English were when they pulled off a "Dunkirk".
I don't get the lightheartedness of this
Why in the world officials think it's funny is beyond me. As others have said, this area, because of the naval bases and other military bases, is vulnerable. I only recently moved here within the past two years, but as you drive in, I think of the risks in the bridges and tunnels every time I cross over.
I would also say that we're probably LESS likely to actually be attacked because a) NY is such a target b/c of its presence in the world and it also has the highest number of Jewish people, which, according to fundamentalist-extremists in the Muslim world, are the root of all evil (thankfully only a small minority of Muslims actually believe this, but it's they who are the greatest threat) and b) how wise is it to go into a city that is probably THE MOST heavily armed city on the East Coast? I would think that the upper echelons of terrorist groups know that, which is hopefully why they haven't tried yet...but let's hope that increased funding can further help to protect our most vulnerable spots, the ports.
Just curious...
Why did they find it funny? Maybe I missed it but the article didn't state why.
Hmm
I have to wonder if the Federal funds could be "directed" towards transportation issues that we appear to be unable to pay for, at this point...Be nice to get the rest of the USA to help pay for part of "the six projects"... Evacuation....East is the ocean..have to go one of the other 3 directions..West seems the most logical geographically, & the most impractical in reality. Our vulnerability seems to be directly related to infrastructure, & lack of ability to effectively escape in a timely manner. The "needs" list, shelters, etc..seem almost secondary.. In a nuclear attack, a shelter is at best a temporary fix....Sabotage to water supply, chemical agents, & impeding means of escape seem far more likely, in an attack by terrorists, in this region.(opinion)
It cuts both ways
While the state is looking at this as a possible way to get more money from the feds, I'm wondering if this study is what was used to jack my homeowners insurance up $300 this year...and no, I have never made a claim against my policy nor have I had a claim against my auto policy or change in credit. Apparently, we now live in a "danger zone".
Woefully in the dark
Thankfully, all we've seen is the Virginia Citizens Defense League terrorizing Harborfest and Norfolk city council attendees by parading around their guns as an annual publicity stunt (its almost that time of year again).
This just underscores that when you factor in Virginia's willingness to give individuals unfettered access to arms and to encourage mercenaries to form private militias, it would seem almost a matter of time before we see some deranged "patriots", like those Timothy McVeigh or Eric Rudolph associated with, lash out at our woefully unprepared facilities.
Glad to see officials are finally starting to pay attention, even if they strangely find the threat laughable.
Terrorism Underrated
Continue to take away our right to bear arms instead of training responsible citizens to use guns. Continue to elevate privacy issues above the need to identify possible criminals. Forget using available high-tech identification cards. Allow terrorists enter the country on the coast of Florida, just like the drug dealers do. Continue to allow anybody with a driver's license and credit card to rent a U-Haul truck. Continue to send pilots home from the base in their flight uniforms, their cars badged with a useless government decal, so that the whole world knows where they live. And, of course, leave ORF right where it is, so that any unidentified individual arriving VFR with no flight plan can get a clearance to fly low over the bases, the ships and the bridges.
True
"Hampton Roads places so high on the list, in part, because of its high number of bridges and tunnels, its home to the largest Navy base in the world and the third-largest port on the East Coast, and evacuation difficulties. Susceptibility to hurricanes, though a natural hazard, also factored in, Piegorsch said."
All of this is true, and not so funny!
Terrorism overrated
A bunch of guys in a cave in Pakistan with no army, no navy, and no air force are not a threat to a country of 300 million people. The terrorist threat was blown out of proportion by Bush-Cheney in order to invade Iraq and control the world's oil supply. 4,000 American lives and $600 billion dollars later we see the truth. Hopefully the next president will end our long national nightmare.
Fourth-most-vulnerable for a terrorist attack
Got to go out and buy lots of duct tape and plastic sheeting. Remember the government directives last time? I feel safer already.
4TH Most Vulnerable To Terrorist Attack
And sadly, off the list of that 10, probably most desirable, strategically. Great. Guess I'll make sure I have plenty of bottled water & a gas mask.