Gilmore, Marshall vie for GOP Senate nomination

RICHMOND

Former Gov. Jim Gilmore says he's all but clinched the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.

"Baloney," replies Bob Marshall, an outspoken state delegate also vying for the GOP's senate banner.

No one can say with certainty which candidate is right, given the complex rules of the nomination that will be awarded at a GOP state convention on May 31. But there's a strong hunch among party loyalists that Gilmore is sitting pretty.

About 4,700 Republican activists have been selected as delegates to the convention during scores of Republican mass meetings this spring in cities and counties across Virginia. They were not asked to state a preference between Gilmore and Marshall. The GOP campaign has evolved into a behind-the-scenes event, with both candidates and their minions frantically working the phones to woo delegates.

The winner will be rewarded with a new set of problems. He will have to take on former Gov. Mark Warner this fall, who is highly popular, well financed, and unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Warner is slated to launch his U.S. Senate campaign in the coming days with a series of speeches and rallies across the state.

At stake is the seat that Republican John Warner - no relation to Mark Warner - has held for 30 years. The incumbent announced last year that he will retire.

John Warner has earned applause and hisses for his bipartisanship and refusal to endorse GOP nominees for statewide office and judgeships that he thought were too doctrinaire. Gilmore and Marshall are deeply conservative and offer a change to the incumbent's style.

Gilmore, 58, is highly partisan, as evidenced by his tenure in 2001 as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Direct and often humorless, he was governor between 1998 and 2002 and best known for his efforts to eliminate the state car tax.

Marshall, 64, whose district includes Loudoun and Prince William counties, has been a relentless voice against abortion since joining the House of Delegates in 1992. His frequent speeches and procedural challenges often tie the House in knots, but have had a result. He filed a successful suit that led to the state Supreme Court's ruling this winter that unelected regional authorities set up in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia to raise taxes for transportation were unconstitutional.

Gilmore refuses to talk about Marshall and barely acknowledges him as an opponent.

"I can't take my eye off the goal, which is to defeat Mark Warner," he said during an interview last week.

Gilmore says he can't wait to compare records with Warner, who succeeded him as governor in 2002. "I kept my word," he said, referring to his campaign pledge to cut the car tax. About 70 percent of the levy was reduced on most cars.

Warner repeatedly vowed not to raise taxes during his campaign to succeed Gilmore and then, in 2004, ushered through a record $1.4 billion tax hike. The Democrat has said his hand was forced by a stagnant economy and Gilmore's unwise management of state finances, including higher-than-expected costs in cutting car taxes.

Gilmore does not buy Warner's explanation. "I think it's a matter of credibility," he said.

Gilmore boasts a deep resume that includes stints as state attorney general and leadership of a congressionally appointed committee that sounded alarms about terrorism prior to the 9/11 attacks.

He says the price of gas is the top issue with voters and that the United States needs to expand domestic drilling and oil exploration, including off Virginia's coast. He wants to extend federal tax cuts set to expire in 2011 and 2013 and opposes setting a timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq.

Gilmore's campaign has been tirelessly polling delegates to the state convention, and the candidate says he easily surpasses the majority support needed to win the nomination. "Turnout is key," he said.

Marshall says most delegates are still ripe for plucking. "We're making calls and finding Gilmore's support is exceptionally soft," he said.

A prime reason for the reticence, Marshall says, is that

Gilmore's belief that abortion should be legal during the first two months of pregnancy puts him at odds with social conservatives. Marshall dismisses Gilmore and Mark Warner as cookie-cutter politicians. " Neither of them will challenge the traditional political status quo," Marshall said. "What we need in Washington are people willing to throw policy grenades."

Marshall wants to put military troops on the Mexic o border, make the Bush tax cuts permanent, pass a balanced-budget amendment, tap into the nation's strategic oil reserves and "make the right to life fundamental." He opposes embryonic stem cell research and believes the Iraqi government should help pay for the presence of U.S. forces.

Marshall's campaign had raised only $52,000 as of the end of March, according to a federal report, and had $19,000 left in the bank. Gilmore had generated $754,000 in contributions and had $208,000 left in its treasury.

But Gilmore is at a distinct financial disadvantage when compared to Warner, who had raised $6.4 million and had $4.4 million sitting in the bank.

Marshall said money will flow to him if he captures the nomination.

Betting among GOP activists, however, is heavy on Gilmore.

David Nimmer, former chairman of Norfolk's Republican committee, said, "Governor Gilmore has better name recognition. Most of us down here hadn't heard of Delegate Marshall until recently."

Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com