Who will be NASCAR's missling link?

As the series heads to Dover this weekend, the field for the Chase is all but set even with 14 races to go until the Chase begins.

 

The past four years, 87.5 percent of the drivers in the top 12 in points heading to Dover were in the top 12 after the fall Richmond race when the Chase field (expanded to 12 teams last year) was set. What that means is based on history one or no more than two drivers in the top 12 in points now will not make the Chase.

 

The top five drivers (1. Kyle Busch; 2. Jeff Burton; 3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.; 4. Denny Hamlin and 5. Clint Bowyer) seem safe. Only once has a driver in the top five in points at this time of the season not made the Chase. That was 2005 when Elliott Sadler was third and fell to 11th after Richmond (when only the top 10 made it then).

 

It's the remaining seven spots where the Chase field is likely to change. This year that group features: 6. Carl Edwards; 7. Kevin Harvick; 8. Tony Stewart; 9. Jimmie Johnson; 10. Jeff Gordon; 11. Greg Biffle; 12. Kasey Kahne.

 

Edwards would be fourth had it not been for the 100-point penalty at Vegas. He looks solid. Harvick often keeps out of trouble but there are some troubling issues here. Since 2004, he's fallen in the points every year but once from after Charlotte to after Richmond. This season, he has two top-15 finishes in his last five races. He'll need better success, but he's certainly better than he was in recent years.

 

As for Stewart, this always seems to be the time of year he takes charge and others talk about how when he gets on a streak he can rip off a few wins in a row. He also seems to do well when under pressure with questions about his demeanor. As he moves closer to announcing if to stay or leave Joe Gibbs Racing, some will wonder if that's becoming a distraction for him and his team. Think about this: He was passed on the last lap for the win in the Daytona 500 and had a flat right front tire while leading with 3 to go in the Coke 600, so he's three laps from having won the season's biggest races. So, is that a sign of how good he is or how much bad luck will derail him?

 

As for the others: Other than Dale Jr., the Hendrick brunch has appeared vulnerable with Johnson 9th and Jeff Gordon 10th. They have a number of upcoming tracks where they have a good record but Hendrick has not figured out this new car yet. Could one of them not make the Chase? Biffle has been strong at times but had problems (how many weeks has a loose wheel impacted his run?). Kahne is confident but his recent run comes only at one track, let's see what he can do elsewhere.

 

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This weekend marks the debut of 18-year-old Joey Logano in the Nationwide series. He turned 18 last week and this is the first time he can race in any of NASCAR's top three series. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was lauded by Mark Martin several years ago and has been among the list of top young talent ever since.

 

"I don't look back and say, Wow, I'm good,'' Logano said. "You know, I do the best as I can and let everything else take care of itself. I'm not going to go out there and brag about myself and say I'm the best thing out there. That stuff's going to speak for itself as far as winning races.''

 

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NASCAR continued raising the stakes on penalties with what it did to the Haas CNC Racing teams after both cars were found to have illegal rear wing mounting locations.

 

Both Scott Riggs and Johnny Sauter were docked 150 points as were their cars. Sauter was in the 70 last weekend, which has had a floating cast of drivers. That car already was outside the top 35 in points. Now, it's 346 points out of 35th place -- a deficit it won't recover from. 

 

Just as big is that the No. 66 car Riggs drives now falls back from 26th to 34th in car owner points and is only 5 points ahead of the the 36th-place car of Sam Hornish Jr.

 

This could be big in terms of the Tony Stewart deal. While talk suggests that Stewart could leave Joe Gibbs Racing to be an owner/driver of Haas CNC, he could own a team with both cars outside the top 35. If Stewart is in one of those cars, his champion's provisional would get that car in the field. The other one would have to fight to make it in each week and this team has shown little progress. What makes this key is that it's hard to attract enough sponsor money to be competitive when you can't even tell the sponsor if you're going to be in the race.

 

This was a tough penalty for the team, which also lost the crew chief and car chief for both teams for six races.

 

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Jeff Gordon was asked if he believe Kyle Busch holds some bitterness toward the Hendrick team and about the brief pit road discussion they had after last week's Coca-Cola 600.

 

"It's hard for me to figure out,'' Gordon said. "I wouldn't be surprsied if there was. it's understandable. I think that you look at the situation, there's going to be one person that was the odd man out and we chose him. I 'm sure he questioned why would we choose him. We all know how talented he is and how fast he went and he won races. So obviously there was a reason why he was odd man out. I'm sure that he does have some bitterness toward that. The way I look at it, look at the situation he's in. I feel we did him a favor.

 

"He's at an organization, they're fast, he's leading the points, and winning races. He's really got this sport kind of in the palm of his hand right now. I think that he sort of is not appreciating and respecting that. He easily could have drove by me the other night. He just like to do things the hard way. So, you know what, I made him have to earn it. He didn't like it. He didn't like the fact that I raced him hard. He wanted to complain about it and I wasn't in the mood to discuss that at the moment. I have his number. I like Kyle. He has my number. We texted and talked to one another on the phone when he was our teammate. I feel like the same thing holds true now. He can call me anytime but don't come up to me after the race when I'm doing an interview and tap me on the shoulder and ask me if there's a problem.''

 

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Teams tested at Pocono earlier this week. Here are the top speeds overall

 

1. Kurt Busch (Dodge) ... 169.456 mph

2. Mark Martin (Chevrolet) ... 169.444

3. Patrick Carpentier (Dodge) ... 169.039

4. AJ Allmendinger (Toyota) ... 168.979

5. J.J. Yeley (Toyota) ... 168.328

6. Michael Waltrip (Toyota) ... 168.253

7. Scott Riggs (Chevrolet) ... 167.951

8. Jimmie Johnson (Chevrolet) ... 167.939

9. Joe Nemechek (Chevrolet) ... 167.904

10. Kyle Busch (Toyota) ... 167.551

11. Martin Truex Jr. (Chevrolet) ... 167.445

12. Dario Franchitti (Dodge) ... 167.426

13. Travis Kvapil (Ford) ... 167.417

14. Dave Blaney (Toyota) ... 167.414

15. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Chevrolet) ... 167.302

16. Greg Biffle (Ford) ... 167.032

17. Paul Menard (Chevrolet) ... 166.973

18. Clint Bowyer (Chevrolet) ... 166.963

19. Kevin Harvick (Chevrolet) ... 166.852

19. Carl Edwards (Ford) ... 166.852

 

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Also, in case you missed it, Marcus Smith was named president and general manager of Lowe's Motor Speedway, replacing Humpy Wheeler. Smith is the son of Bruton Smith, chairman of Speedway Motorsports Inc., which owns the track and others. Marcus Smith, 35, also was named president and chief operating officer of SMI.

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