More young Virginians are registering, but will they vote?

By Austin Wright

The pool of 18- to 25-year-olds signing up to vote in this year’s presidential election is growing at twice the rate of all Virginia voters, according state election officials.

The surge in young registrants, which experts attribute to heightened interest in national politics, means that the group of voters 25 and younger in the state has grown 10 percent in the past year, while the growth in the entire voter pool has increased 5 percent, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

The young voters make up only a slightly larger portion this year of Virginia’s 4.7 million registered voters – an estimated 11 percent of all voters a year ago and 12 percent today. As of last week, 569,817 registered voters in the commonwealth are under 26 years old.

The clout of the youth vote will depend on whether the young registrants turn out in high enough numbers at the polls.

Population growth could be contributing to the surge, given that the number of 18- to 24-year-olds is growing faster than Virginia’s overall population, according to counts and projections by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Still, many analysts say they haven’t seen so much interest among young voters in a long time, and the candidates are paying attention.

Gail Gitcho, the mid-Atlantic communications director for presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain, said dozens of young volunteers are coming to McCain’s Virginia offices every day to work for the 71-year-old senator.

“McCain has a very strong appeal among young people,” she said, noting that he’s reaching out through Facebook, YouTube and late-night television appearances. McCain has been on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” 13 times – the most of any guest.

But it’s presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama whom many analysts credit with driving enthusiasm among young people.

Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia, said Obama’s message of change resonates with young voters.

“It takes specific events to get people interested and involved, and I think the Obama candidacy has produced a dramatic upward spike in youth interest in politics,” Sabato said. “College students have gotten more involved in this race than in any other race since 1972, the Nixon-McGovern race, which was the first time 18- to 20-year-olds could vote.”

Living a large portion of their lives with George W. Bush as president also has motivated young people to get involved, Sabato said.

“That’s a burden McCain is bearing,” he said. “Many voters hold him accountable for George Bush’s performance.”

The larger increase in under-26 voters compared with the increase in voters overall suggests there will be higher voter turnout in that age group than in previous years, Sabato said.

Voter statistics will likely continue to change, as there are still more than two months until the Oct. 6 deadline to register to vote in the Nov. 4 election.

Carol Pretlow, a political science professor at Norfolk State University, credits Obama with what she sees as a dramatic increase in political participation.

“This past year, I’ve seen a growth in students not only registering, but being involved in information gathering and talking to their classmates,” Pretlow said. “Particularly for my students, they’re saying that they identify with Obama because he came up not from a privileged background.”

McCain and Obama each have profiles on Facebook, a social networking Web site popular among college and high school students that has more than 80 million users.

Obama’s profile boasts 1.2 million “supporters,” or users who have added Obama to a list of profiles they track. McCain’s profile has about 170,000 “supporters.”

“Obama was on all the Internet stuff really early on,” said 21-year-old Virginia voter Zach Pilchen, a student at the College of William and Mary who is working for Rock the Vote this summer in Washington. “For a candidate to have a constant presence there – that is something that’s pretty effective.”

McCain’s campaign also released an online video game, called “Pork Invaders,” in which players shoot “vetoes” at pigs in the sky, a concept that represents McCain’s vow to eliminate pork-barrel spending.

Rock the Vote, a nonpartisan national organization working to register young people to vote, classifies Virginia as one of four “Tier I” states, meaning the organization believes the youth vote will decide which presidential candidate wins the state. The other Tier I states are Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico.

“I think both of these candidates are not your typical candidates,” Pilchen said. “It’s on both sides – not just Obama, who certainly has a lot of youth appeal.”

McCain’s reputation as an independent voice who often co-sponsors legislation with Democrats appeals to young voters, Pilchen said.

State Del. Jeff Frederick, R-Prince William County, the 32-year-old chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, agreed.

“Just because you’re 71 years old doesn’t mean you can’t relate to someone who’s younger,” he said.

Enthusiasm among young voters is no different this year than during any other presidential election, said Frederick, who predicts young voters will have the same influence as they did four years ago.

Nationally, turnout among young voters has been below 50 percent in every presidential election since 1972 – the first time 18- to 20-year-olds could vote. In 2004, 47 percent of registered 18- to 24-year-olds voted, compared with 66 percent of registered voters older than 24.

Of those who registered to vote in Virginia during the first six months of 2008, nearly half were under the age of 25, and the majority of them were teens who had just reached voting age – 18-year-olds, along with 17-year-olds who will turn 18 before Election Day. The majority also were women.

Austin Wright, (757) 446-2667, austin.wright@pilotonline.com