Sure, Hampton Roads has its problems, but we can solve them

Two Old Dominion University professors claim to have the answers.

They released a book earlier this year called “Guesstimation: Solving the World’s Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin.”

It’s sold well and received a couple of mentions on a popular Wall Street Journal blog. The premise is that through basic math and physics, you can come relatively close to figuring out long-standing problems, or at least long-standing curiosities.

But I thought the authors, John A. Adam and Lawrence Weinstein, were moving way too fast. Solving the world’s problems? Perhaps they forgot that charity starts at home. What about Virginia’s problems? What about Hampton Roads’ problems?

In the name of civic pride, the guys were gracious enough to go to lunch with me earlier this month. It took about an hour and cost $24 and we solved some of the region’s “problems.” And we did it a whole lot cheaper and much quicker than the General Assembly’s overpriced “special session.”

A. First, how big is the beach? The resort area stretches from about 4th to 37th Street. That’s a couple of miles. And the sandy part is about 100 yards wide. So there are about 1,500 yards in a mile, times 2 miles, times 100 yards wide … comes to about 300,000 square yards. Next, how big is a towel? Figure that each towel is 6 feet by 3 feet, or 2 square yards. Divide 300,000 square yards by that.

The answer is it would take about 150,000 people to fill the resort beach. But with Oceanfront parking, we know that’s not ever possible.

A. Chances are one of them may be John Adam himself, who loves 7-Eleven coffee. But before you get a Slurpee, you need to figure out how big South Hampton Roads is. Virginia Beach is about 400 square miles, with 100 of them populated. The rest of South Hampton Roads probably includes 200 to 300 populated square miles, for an overall total of about 400. Weinstein and Adam guessed there’s one 7-Eleven for every mile and a half or two square miles. That means there are about 200 7-Elevens in South Hampton Roads. (Weinstein and Adam try to narrow down what they don’t know by guessing and using a factor of 10. In this case they know there are definitely more than 20 7-Elevens and fewer than 200.) At any one time, they guessed there are about five people inside looking for a pick-me-up. Multiply that by the 200 7-Elevens in the area and that means there are about 1,000 people at any one time in a South Hampton Roads 7-Eleven.

A. Let’s say a 12-oz. can of Dr Pepper cost $1. But it probably only costs the cola company about 10 cents. Since Dr Pepper donated $10,000 to Virginia Beach’s Kelly Gray, that means the crowd would need to finish more than 100,000 cans. If 100 people come to the wedding, each person would have to drink at least 1,000 party cups of Dr Pepper. That sounds tough, but it’s really impossible. How impossible? Each person would have to have his own port-a-potty because he or she would be drinking a half ton of liquid while the bride and groom cut a rug. And you thought competitive eating was tough.

A. Rip Tide’s air gun fires about 20 meters into the air. The Westin is about 150 meters tall. But once the poor man’s Cookie Monster pops off the gun, the T-shirt starts falling fast – adding 20 mph downward every second. That means it would take about five or six seconds for the T-shirt to hit the ground. If he’s lucky, Rip Tide might be able to hit the Pembroke Mall parking lot, which is not really all that far. The lesson? Stay a medium distance from Rip Tide if you want to catch a T-shirt. And use two hands to catch and squeeze.

 A. Well, there are about 17 million Virginians, 10 million of whom are drivers. If each person drives 10,000 miles a year at 20 miles a gallon, that’s 500 gallons per driver per year. There are 50 gallons per barrel, so that’s 10 barrels per driver, or 100 million barrels a year for Virginia drivers, or 1 billion barrels in a decade. But not all of the oil would be usable, so let’s say 25 percent of the oil passed muster. That means the answer would be 4 billion barrels of oil. That would be a gigantic field. In other words, sell yourself on the idea of light rail.

 A. Of course I asked about the Bridge-Tunnel. It is the region’s greatest tragedy.

There’s not quite as much math involved in this one. The answer depends on the direction you’re headed. If you’re going eastbound, and 64 is backed up to the 664 exit, take 664. No brainer. “The decision point is much more convenient,” Weinstein said.

Westbound, it’s a different story. I-64 has to be backed up five or six miles before it’s worth the time to drive to Suffolk. Besides, if the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel is clogged, that means there’s a good chance the Downtown or Midtown tunnels are congested as well. Weinstein figures the HRBT has to be backed up five or six miles before it’s worth it to turn around.

But even this anecdote, with little math, led Weinstein into a discussion of how traffic acts like waves, where each action of braking by one car leads to an increased action of braking from the car behind it. So how do we get through the HRBT successfully? “The moral of the story,” Adam said, “is never brake.”