DENVER
Wile E. Coyote doesn't catch the Road Runner. The Chicago Cubs don't win the World Series. Virginia doesn't vote Democratic in presidential elections.
So say the laws of the universe, it seems. The last time we saw the coyote, he was a shrinking dot falling from a cliff.
But the Cubs, who haven't won a World Series since 1908, are in first place this summer. And Virginia, which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964, is being considered a crucial swing state in this fall's race and feeling the winds of a White House campaign.
Could this be the year of change?
As the Democratic Party faithful gather for their national convention beginning in the Pepsi Center here today, their presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, thinks Virginia's time has come.
His campaign has opened 34 offices across Virginia, including one in tiny Castlewood - population, 2,036 - in the state's southwest corner. Volunteers are storming inner cities, towns with high unemployment and college campuses in hopes of registering 151,000 new voters likely to support Obama.
Obama's last campaign tour before the convention was a two-day visit to Virginia that ended Thursday with a rally in Chesapeake.
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is a national co-chairman of the campaign and is going all out to deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to Democrats. Kaine created an in-state stir this summer as one of a handful of politicians Obama closely considered to be his running mate before selecting Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
Not to be outdone, Republican John McCain is reportedly still giving close consideration to a Virginian for his running mate: Rep. Eric Cantor of Henrico County.
Like Obama, McCain has kept a steady flow of campaign ads on state airwaves this summer - an avoidable expense in the past for Republican presidential candidates in reliably Republican Virginia.
This year, election maps marking Democratic states in blue and Republican states in red have Virginia colored purple - a mark shared by traditional bellwethers Florida and Ohio. That suggests that Obama and McCain may be visiting the Old Dominion often, many strategists and political scientists say.
"I think it will be the first time in decades that we'll see a full-scale presidential campaign in the state," said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University.
Holsworth and others stop short of predicting an Obama victory in Virginia, where Republicans have won 10 straight presidential elections and - with the exception of Lyndon Johnson 44 years ago - 13 of the last 14.
Republicans are confident the streak will go on.
"Anything can happen, sure," said Del. Chris Saxman of Staunton, a co-chairman of McCain's Virginia campaign. "But is Obama likely to win Virginia, I don't think so. He's too liberal."
Many Obama staffers view Virginia as a Mount Everest. "We all know it's an uphill fight," said Kevin Griffis, spokesman for the state campaign.
But the uniqueness of the candidate and the times, combined with ever growing Democratic influence on state elections, just might make ascent possible, they add. The campaign is hoping to catch political gusts that have lifted Democrats to a string of victories for statewide office and the General Assembly in recent years.
Virginia Republicans started the decade in control of the state's two U.S. Senate seats, the governorship and both chambers of the General Assembly.
Democrats, however, have won the last two gubernatorial elections. They gained one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2006 when Jim Webb upset GOP incumbent George Allen and are widely favored to seize the other seat this fall, long occupied by John Warner, who is not seeking re-election. Democrat Mark Warner - no relation to the senator - and Republican Jim Gilmore are vying to replace him.
Last fall, Democrats gained five seats in the state Senate to take a 22-18 majority. Although Republicans still control the House of Delegates, they have lost 11 seats since 2001. The chamber now has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents.
The shift has been driven by voters in Northern Virginia, the state's most populous region. Once unpredictable, the fast-growing Washington suburbs have voted increasingly Democratic this decade. Webb and Kaine, were it not for the 60 percent vote they received in Northern Virginia, would have lost their statewide races. Seven of the 11 House of Delegates seats that have shifted to Democrats are from Northern Virginia, as are three of the five state Senate seats.
Voters from the region are affluent and well educated. Many came to Virginia for careers related to the federal government or were drawn by the region's high-tech boom. They have changed the state's political landscape.
"This is not your grandfather's Virginia anymore," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. "It's a mid-Atlantic state, not a Southern state. There's been an amazing growth of voters with no connection to the Civil War or the Mason-Dixon Line. "
"They want results, not ideology," said Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University.
State Democratic candidates have played to those demands this decade, portraying themselves as bipartisan problem-solvers and supporting tax increases to improve education and roads. Republican statewide candidates have been strongly anti-tax and, in the words of Holsworth, "narrowly tailored" to conservative style.
Obama will need a strong showing in Northern Virginia if he is to have any chance of carrying the state, observers say.
He'll have Kaine and Webb stumping for him, and he may find that Mark Warner, who hails from Alexandria, leaves coattails from his Senate campaign. Warner has been asked to deliver the convention's keynote speech Tuesday.
A huge turnout of black voters is also considered essential for an Obama victory. Blacks make up about 20 percent of the state's population and typically cast about 14 percent of the votes in statewide elections. A record 17 percent voted in 1989 to help Democrat Doug Wilder to a historic, razor-thin victory as the nation's first elected black governor. The Obama camp is hoping to break the record, and Wilder - often reticent when it comes to helping other candidates - is promising to go all out for Obama.
The state campaign is being run by Mitch Stewart, a South Dakotan who directed Obama's victory in the crucial Iowa caucuses in January. He is focusing this summer on trying to organize in each of the state's 2,600 precincts and registering voters in areas that show high Democratic potential, including economically strapped Southside Virginia, which has been pounded by the decline in manufacturing.
Obama made the case himself last week during an appearance in Martinsville.
"People aren't sure that the essential part of the American dream - if we work hard and sacrifice, we'll ultimately benefit - is true," he told supporters there.
Despite all the rosy scenarios for Obama, a lot of people just don't think he can win in Virginia.
They point to August 2004, when Democrat John Kerry stopped in Norfolk and held a huge rally in front of the Wisconsin before departing to Boston to accept the Democratic presidential nomination.
Kerry vowed to campaign vigorously here and assigned two full-time organizers to the state. By October, they were both gone. A month later, Bush convincingly carried Virginia.
Bob Dole, perhaps the least popular Republican presidential candidate of the past 40 years, won here in 1996 against incumbent Democrat Bill Clinton. In 1976, Virginia was the only Southern state to favor Republican Gerald Ford over Democrat Jimmy Carter of Georgia.
Saxman and other McCain supporters say their candidate is a natural fit for Virginia. His status as a war hero and his support for the surge of U.S. troops in Iraq, they say, should put him on strong footing with military voters and veterans in Hampton Roads. And if Virginia voters are rejecting deeply ideological Republicans, they say that's not a concern for McCain.
"He has a reputation for being pretty independent," Saxman said.
GOP leaders say they are not taking this year's campaign lightly and are quietly assembling a huge get-out-the vote effort.
"I feel good that anywhere in the state you go south of Richmond will back McCain," said Jerry Kilgore, an unsuccessful Republican nominee for governor in 2005 who is also a co-chairman of McCain's state campaign.
For all the fanfare now, some believe Virginia will play little role in determining the next president.
"Virginia really doesn't matter," said Ed Matricardi, former executive director of the state GOP. "If Virginia goes blue, Obama is going to win in a nationwide landslide. I think it's going to be a close race and Virginia will go red."
Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com
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Ptown88
How is Obama rewarding the great unwashed masses? And how many of them are there? The great majority of Americans, by far, work hard, many at multiple jobs. But buyouts, layoffs, medical emergencies, stagnant wages and skyrocketing medical and educational costs are chipping away at a stable middle class. And a large, stable middle class is what makes a country strong and great. Sometimes it seems as if comments similar to yours are saying that "I'm the only worthy one, and everyone else is living off of my hard work". Well, please note, there are others who also put in a lot of hours to make ends meet. You ain't the only one digging this ditch.
Insurers cannot keep you from doing anything
they only protect themselves with the coverages they right. Take the China auto insurance environment. Insurers are not regulating what is going on over there, they are only setting themselves up to lock up the market. Do some research as to what is going on over there, and compare it to the U.S. market. You would be surprised, and it destroys Don's argument.
Tabors regulators
In all fairness to the Libertarian viewpoint, Doc Tabor's idea of insurance companies regulating safety has some merit. You might buy insurance for the plane, but if you are not qualified, they most assuredly will not let you fly the plane…or if you do, you are one your own. The problem I have with his market based regulatory system is that it is dependent upon torts for resolution and that is, at best, unpredictable. It could take years working its way through our already clogged courts and put the less well off plaintiff in a position of accepting a low and sealed settlement rather than an open decision which would theoretically provide market place enforcement of safety. Whereas now, you break the law and fly without license and you get arrested, fined, etc. It is open and clear cut, with the same rules for everyone.
Huh?
McSame should be honored for his service, but I don't know why getting shot down and captured 30 years ago qualifies him for the presidency.
I mean, being a war hero didn't qualify Kerry. It just made him a target for republican attack dogs.
Comedy!
"The Obama's faced more personal stress and acted more heoric than Mccain did during his detetion in a enemy facility "
You have to be kidding me. Absolutely you have to be joking with that statement. What a disgrace to McCain's ordeal. While Mc was in prison camp, Obama was playing with his GI Joe.
Obama is all about rewarding the lowest contributors to our economy at the expense of all of us who EARNED our degrees, EARNED our pay, and GAINED INTELLIGENCE through learning and dedication. Obama wants the masses who YEARN for more but are unwilling to commit themselves. Great plan.
Oh boy, now I heard it all
Dr. Tabor, the dentist, against the regulation of Doctors, stockbrockers, etc., and now somehow asserting that the U.S. does not produce oil domestically. Even if I grant you the narrowest interpretation of that argument, the fact that U.S. oil companies are presently experiencing record profits destroys it. And Don, your plane analogy is bad. I may own an airplane and not need to have a pilot's license, and an insurer will still insure it. Additionally, I may own a car and not have a license, and still have it insured. Insurers are not in the regulation business, they are in the insurance business. They are not equipped to regulate.
True heroes????
"They (Obamas) are the true hero's!"
Oh brother!
ches37
What are you talking about??? At least McCain was fed. I am sure he lived pretty well as a POW, where he was tortured and saw his fellow Americans tortured. I have a lot of respect for someone who is willing to stay true to his beliefs at all costs.
A lot of people work hard every day. Why can't I get special treatment? If people would just worry about being people instead of labels maybe the race issue would go away.
Economics 102
Yes, the price of oil is the same worldwide, less shipping costs. Oil from our offshore deposits will only be slightly cheaper than oil purchased from foreign suppliers and only because it is cheaper to bring it here by pipeline than by ship, at most a few cents a gallon at the pump.
But that's only part of the story. When we buy oil from a foreign supplier, the profits made bringing that oil out of the ground go to state run foreign oil companies, the wages are paid to foreign workers and the royalties for the resource go to foreign despots, resulting in an unfavorable balance of trade.
If we produce the oil from our own sources, those profits go to our oil companies and find their way into our pensions and 401Ks, the high wages are paid to American workers, and the royalties go to our State and Federal governments, since we are buying the oil from ourselves. Producing our own oil is the essence of "Buyi
my 2 cents
I don't like the Obama's even though I will vote for BO. I did not watch Michelle, because I just didn't want to listen to what we alrady knew we would hear. My interest last night was Senator Kennedy, and nothing else.
Selling it ches37
I just called the entire office around to read ches37's comment below. We all vote differently, are different colors, and so on. People gasped at the description of a POW in Vietnam.
No one could sell McCain better than commentors such as this one. Keep up the good work. It was eloquent and the picture is clear now.
T-shirts
To those who are looking for our votes to be displayed on our t-shirts, not every one is so overt.
I have conservative black friends who say they are voting for McCain, but neither they, nor I, are wearing political t-shirts (maybe red voters are just like that???). Cheers, MGM
Economics 101
"If they can get more money from Europe or Asia, that's where they'll sell."
Petrolium is a commodity sold in the international market. The price of a barrel of crude is the same in the US as it is in Europe, Asia, etc.
Michele grand slam speech!!
An African American who had everyone working against her, her whole life because of racism, working much harder than any white woman would ever have to work, hit a grand slam on what will be declared as one of the greatest speeches in modern american history. That speech alone should remind white america that we can repair some of the unfairness to african americans by turning virginia blue (Democrat). This election should be about changing our drastically unfair current history towards minorities. The Obama's faced more personal stress and acted more heoric than Mccain did during his detetion in a enemy facility (at least he was fed and didnt even have to work). They (Obamas) are the true hero's!
Funny what doesn't get reported.
The reporting team of Fiske for the Pilot and Bob Lewis for the AP really haven't been discussing the senate race very much or in detail this time.I guess if they did,they'd eventually have to talk about the Sunlight foundation and it's report that Mark Warner has gotten $206,000 so far from lobbyists for his campaign,the highest level of contributions with an underlying obligation of any congressional candidate in the nation.So I guess Mark Warner's definition of 'an independent,radical centrist'means selling out to as many pressure groups and denizens of smoke-filled rooms as possible.So who would the Connecticut Yankee in Tom Jefferson's court be serving?Maybe the lobbyists,certainly himself,but not likely we,the people who pay the taxes he raised.
Insurance only regulators?
With the mish mash of large and small insurers, some who go under when claims get to hefty, I don't look at that as much protection. Who is going to make sure the dentist I am checking out (not picking on dentists, mind you, some of my best friends...you know the rest) is not insured by Peter Piper Insurance and Storm Door Company? One insurance company's standards may be different than another's. There are just too many complications for the consumer to have to wade through. Most of us have other lives rather than trying to get background checks on doctors, dentists, opticians, architects, CPA's. I think industrial society has to provide some standards that we can all trust to be set in the interest of safety and reliability, otherwise we need to return to our agrarian roots and grow our own. And, as I said earlier, free market regulation through torts is uneven and unpredictable.
Another predictable article from Fiske
You can just about hear Fiske running his hands together,fantasizing about an all democratic Virginia.Not likely,Warren.For one thing,Warner hasn't won the senate race yet,not even with the pilot's obvious biased reporting to help.The files gathered on Warner by the Clinton camp,which 'helped' him make up his mind to spend more time with his family,have been offered for sale to help pay her debts.They will come out.Funny how his resolve to spend more time at home only lasted until he declared for the senate race.Of course,Fiske uses quotes from disgraced democratic political activist and occasional political science professor Larry Sabato,who inexplicably links republican voting to fascination with the civil war era.Strange when you consider the clan was a democrat party group.But Sabato has a problem with facts anyway,resorting to 3rd hand rumor when convienient to sland
Actually, I am opposed to government licensing of professionals
Professional Liability insurance companies are better equipped to to safeguard the public than government. If government licensing did not exist, insurers would still decide who they would insure. Since it would be their money at risk if they insured an unqualified professional, their standards would be every bit as high as government's and they would not continue to insure a risky professional. Proof of insurance could take the place of a license, see an uninsured professional at your own risk.
The model for this concept already exists. I hold a valid pilot's license, though I am not current, but I if I tried to purchase a complex aircraft, the finance company would insist I had insurance, and the insurance companies require minimum time in type and recurrent training for such insurance, far in excess of what the FAA requires.
There are many dental procedures I can legally perform tha
Problems for both sides
Both the Republicans and the Democrats have to play to the middle. They can't win by playing to the far left or the far right - and they should know it. Whoever courts and wins over the moderate and independent voters will win the election.
The Libertarians are still so much of a joke that they get very little media coverage from ANY media outlet. When they get serious and get away from their utopian ideas that completely free markets without any sort of regulation will work and that the government needs to go back to operating like how it did in the late 1800's and early 1900's, MAYBE then they will become a viable political party. Ayn Rand's theories might be good to study, but they don't stand up to reality.
A couple of more comments on libertarian regulation
So many court battles are settled and the results are sealed. So someone sues a polluter, that corporation cuts a deal, pays a few million and the records are sealed. No regulatory effect.
I know Dr. Tabor can't possibly agree to no licensing for professionals. After all, if I set up a dental practice with a perfunctory knowledge of drilling, I may be put out of business, but only after a lot of fillings have fallen out, if we depend on torts. I prefer some vetting by the state and regulatory enforcement to weed out bad dentists (or doctors, cpa's, engineers, architects, etc.) before they do too much damage.