Strategist: Virginia more than swing state, it's a 'battleground'

DENVER

Virginia is among 18 “battleground” states that will determine the outcome of this fall’s presidential race, a top strategist for Democrat Barack Obama said Monday.

“Virginia is very close,” said David Plouffe, Obama’s national campaign manager, during a new conference.

He said Virginia and North Carolina have “huge numbers” of African Americans and young people who either have not registered to vote or have gone to the polls sporadically.

“They are rich targets for us,” Plouffe said. The campaign is trying to register 151,000 new Virginia voters in places that might be friendly to Obama: inner cities, college towns and regions suffering from high unemployment.

Plouffe spoke with reporters Monday just hours before the opening of the four-day

Democratic National Convention, where Obama is to be chosen as the party’s presidential nominee and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware to be the vice presidential nominee.

Plouffe said the campaign hopes to benefit in Virginia from the popularity of former Gov. Mark Warner, who is running for the U.S. Senate this fall. Warner, a Democrat, appears to be the strong frontrunner in the race against former Gov. Jim Gilmore, a Republican.

Virginia has voted Republican in 10 straight presidential elections. The last Democrat to carry the state was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, who outpolled Republican Barry Goldwater.

Jeff Frederick, chairman of the Virginia Republican Party, dismissed Plouffe’s comments as a feeble attempt to generate positive press.

“With all the euphoria … I’m surprised they didn’t put Virginia in their column,” he said Monday.

Frederick predicted that Republican John McCain will extend the GOP winning streak in Virginia this fall. “Virginians aren’t liberal and Obama is the most liberal member of the Senate,” he said.

Plouffe stopped short of predicting a victory in Virginia or saying that Obama needs to carry the state to win the White House. He based his presentation on Electoral College votes; a presidential candidate needs 270 to win.

Plouffe said Obama has an edge in states with 200 collective electoral votes and McCain has an advantage in states totaling 139 electoral votes.

The outcome of the election, he said, will hinge on 18 highly competitive states with a total of 139 electoral votes. Virginia has 13 electoral votes and North Carolina has 15 – “a big combined take,” Plouffe said.

Plouffe said that in most of the competitive states, the campaign is focusing on registering likely Obama supporters to vote and making sure they go to the polls by putting together precinct organizations.

He said Obama could draw well over 90 percent of the African American vote and two-thirds of the Hispanic vote and a strong majority of young voters, although he did not offer a precise estimate.

Plouffe noted that in Florida in the 2004 presidential race, Democrat John Kerry lost to Republican George Bush by 380,000 votes. Plouffe said 1.4 million registered African Americans and young voters from the state did not cast ballots.

Kerry also lost Colorado to Bush by 100,000 votes. Plouffe lamented that there were 130,000 unregistered blacks and Hispanics in the state on Election Day.

Plouffe said the Obama campaign will stress an economic message at the Democratic National Convention this week and try to tie McCain to many of the Bush administration’s unpopular policies.

“We’re going to make it abundantly clear this week that John McCain offers more of the same,” he said. “If you’re happy with the direction of this country, then you should vote for John McCain.”

Pilot writer Julian Walker contributed to this story.

Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com