A loss at Duke would deepen U.Va.'s latest football crisis

Al Groh's campaign is in disarray. To put it in political terms, he's losing his base.

Not for the first time has this happened. Virginia football has been in a bad place before - as recently as last year.

Cavalier fortunes, though, aren't as likely to turn around this season. If you think fans bailed on Groh in previous moments of crisis, wait until you see the exodus that could be created by a loss Saturday at Duke.

A loss is a real possibility. It tells you what people think of Groh's team that U.Va. is a 7-point underdog to Duke, which was 1-11 last season, one of three consecutive years in which the Blue Devils suffered at least 10 losses.

U.Va., 1-2 this season, is being dissed by the early line out of Las Vegas in favor of a program that, at least until now, was considered the worst in the BCS.

But this year's Blue Devils already have two victories, and under new coach David Cutcliffe they feature better quarterback play and an improved attitude. They're feeling good about themselves.

Meanwhile, U.Va., to put it mildly, is having quarterback issues after the dismissal last week of Peter Lalich. And after being outscored 97-33 in three games, you have to wonder about the team's attitude, too.

A loss to Duke, of all teams, would be galling to U.Va. boosters. Cavalier supporters would see it as a clear sign the program is circling the drain. Losing at Duke gives Groh nowhere to hide.

That's what makes this a crucial game for U.Va. After all that's happened this year - on and off the field - the Cavaliers need to stop the bleeding.

Since last season, Groh has unexpectedly lost 10 players who still had athletic eligibility - eight incurred academic problems or were dismissed from the team. Last year's starting quarterback, Jameel Sewell, was sacked by classroom demands, while Lalich got caught in the fallout from an underage-drinking beef.

Should Groh get a pass because his quarterbacks made mistakes that might have been handled differently at other schools? That's a judgment call. But at one time, these things didn't happen to U.Va. quarterbacks.

For now, fans can only hope that redshirt sophomore Marc Verica is a solid student - and just for good measure, a teetotaler. But he's probably not ready to play quarterback, and the volatility of the program won't make things easier for him. In any case, the way their defense has been playing, the Cavaliers couldn't win with Tim Tebow at quarterback.

Because of its untimely personnel losses, people held low expectations for U.Va. But even in this context, and after winning ACC Coach of the Year in 2007, Groh is under fire again.

He deserves the flak, if only because this is U.Va.'s second rebuilding year in the past three. The school always has had a history of winning and losing the right way, but the issues cropping up in Charlottesville reveal a program lacking in continuity and sufficient institutional supervision.

For all the hostility Groh is encountering from fans, he's momentarily insulated by a contract that runs through 2011 - and includes a buyout clause - and by last year's success. As a result, chances are good he'll return for at least another season.

Public perception, however, is less munificent.

How bad can it get for U.Va. this season? Very. Duke might be the last winnable game on its schedule.

After Saturday, it might not be so farfetched to imagine the Cavaliers finishing 1-11. If that were to happen, they would virtually be trading places with the Blue Devils.

Judging from the early line out of Vegas, some people think U.Va. already has.

Bob Molinaro, (757) 446-2373, bob.molinaro@pilotonline.com