Presidential race is tight, Warner has big lead on Gilmore

WASHINGTON

The race for president remains volatile in Virginia, two surveys released Wednesday suggest, but Democrat Mark Warner apparently has opened a sizable advantage over Republican Jim Gilmore in the state's contest for U.S. Senate.

A poll released by the Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University showed Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama, 48 percent to 39 percent, among registered voters statewide.

But a second survey, taken by a Raleigh, N.C.-based firm, Public Policy Polling, gave Obama a 2-point advantage, 48 percent to 46 percent, in Virginia.

In the Senate contest, both polls gave Warner a 24-point edge, with CNU showing him leading Gilmore, 54-30, and the PPP survey showing a 57-33 split.

The polls found Warner leading Gilmore among most voter groups, even getting the support of about one-fourth of those who call themselves Republicans.

The CNU survey indicated that voters judge Warner better able than Gilmore to address problems with the nation's economy, the war in Iraq, high fuel prices, terrorist threats and health care.

Gilmore has built his campaign largely around a call for offshore oil drilling to lower gas prices, a step the CNU poll indicated is supported by 68 percent of state voters. Just under 48 percent of those surveyed by CNU judged Warner better able than Gilmore to deal with fuel prices; 28 percent said Gilmore would best handle that problem.

Both surveys were conducted by telephone and at about the same time, with the CNU poll reaching voters Sept. 10-14, and the PPP poll making calls Sept. 13-14. But the pollsters used different questionnaires, voter samples and polling techniques.

Other surveys taken for national news organizations have generally shown McCain and Obama running nearly even in Virginia.

"We've seen a lot of different polls this week, and the numbers are varying," said Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for the McCain campaign. "We're not taking anything for granted."

Democrats quickly challenged the CNU poll's presidential results, arguing that it included an unrepresentative sample of state voters. The poll included far too few young voters and African Americans, said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democrats' coordinated campaign in Virginia. The Obama camp has targeted both groups.

Only 3 percent of the CNU survey participants were under 30 years old; such voters made up 16 percent of the state's voter turnout in the 2004 election, according to Election Day surveys at polling places statewide. Ten percent of those surveyed by CNU identified themselves as African American; the black turnout in Virginia in 2004 was 22 percent of the total vote.

Quentin Kidd, a CNU political scientist who oversaw the polling, acknowledged that young voters and African Americans were under-represented. "A survey is a snapshot in time," he said, and the CNU poll has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The CNU poll was based on interviews with 500 voters, each quizzed in person. The PPP poll relied on automated calls, with voters punching in responses to recorded questions on their telephone keypads.

Dale Eisman, (703) 913-9872, dale.eisman@pilotonline.com