VIRGINIA BEACH
The race to represent the 2nd Congressional District remains tight, political observers say.
The contest between U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake and political newcomer Glenn Nye is "too close to call at this point," said Quentin Kidd, a Christopher Newport University political scientist. "Whoever wins is going to be surprised and feel lucky."
Both sides predict a narrow victory.
The Nye camp points to favorable internal poll numbers and the likelihood of high voter turnout of supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama as factors in Nye's favor. Nye is a Democrat.
The Drake side banks on different polls and says the 2nd District's conservative leanings favor the two-term Republican congresswoman and former state delegate.
Voters in the district, which includes Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk, Hampton and the Eastern Shore, solidly favored Republican presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004. In 2006, former Gov. George Allen, in his unsuccessful bid for a U.S. Senate seat, won the 2nd District over Jim Webb.
Drake's narrow 2006 victory over Democrat Phil Kellam, with 51 percent of the vote, could be an indication she is vulnerable.
"When an incumbent does as poorly as Drake did in 2006, she's never safe," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. "If there was ever a year to beat her, it's this year."
Still, Sabato predicted a Drake victory.
Nye, a 34-year-old former foreign service officer, has gained momentum in the past week, supporters say, through appearances with U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner and visits to Norfolk and Virginia Beach by Obama.
Democratic voter turnout, especially among African Americans, is "critical" to Nye's success, Sabato said. The 2nd District is 24 percent black, according to 2007 U.S. Census estimates.
"It's all going to be about turnout, and I don't think that's going to be a problem," said Sandra Brandt, the Democratic party's 2nd District chairwoman.
In 2004, 67 percent of 2nd District voters went to the polls, a high turnout.
In 2006, a non presidential election year, 48 percent of district voters cast ballots.
A recent Nye campaign poll showed Drake leading 47 to 44 percent, putting him in striking distance, supporters say.
A Drake spokesman questioned the reliability of partisan polling and pointed to a mid-October poll commissioned by the Democratic-leaning Web site, Daily Kos, that showed Drake in front by 51 to 37 percent.
"That is very, very close to what we have," said Corry Bliss, Drake's campaign manager. Bliss would not share the campaign's internal polling numbers. "We couldn't be happier. We're winning, and we've been winning the whole time."
Other supporters, while predicting victory, were less assured.
"We expect it to be a very close race for Thelma," said Gary Byler, 2nd District Republican Party chairman. "We are working very hard to make sure the night is not a complete loss for Republicans."
Aaron Applegate, (757) 222-5122, aaron.applegate@pilotonline.com
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I cannot vote for Drake the mistake
Thelma Drake shoud have never been elected to public office the first time, and she certainly won't this one. Anyone like Drake who has voted 95% in favor of the failed presidet bush does not deserve my or your vote.
Glenn Nye "08
Elect Glenn Nye
Glenn Nye is a smart choice for the 2nd District. Please go vote on Tuesday. Polls show Glenn is behind. Lets get this upset for Glenn Nye.
no nye!
Vote for someone with experience, not an empty suit! Looks like we're gonna have one of those in office anyway.
Hopes are fading
"We are working very hard to make sure the night is not a complete loss for Republicans." pretty much says it all
Not a vote against Drake
I voted absentee today. I voted for Nye. Drake was let down by a weak president in her party, and almost no support by the candidate McCain. I'll roll the dice for change, and vote for Nye. He is on notice though, he has only two years to make a difference, really less.
I had voted for Drake against Ashe and Kellem, not today. Too close to Bush, and Bush is a disaster.
thelma drake = Bush, Cheney, Rove & Partyline
Voting for Thelma Drake is like voting for George Bush all over again. The 2nd District and Virginia deserves much better and Glenn Nye is what is best for the Commonwealth. It's time for Drake to mvoe on and cut the darn negatives camgaings she keeps running.
Glenn Nye 2008
Too close to call?
Where's Ed Schrock when Thelma needs him?
Glenn Nye
Glenn Nye has hands-on experience IN Iraq, unlike T. Drake, he did not just go there for a photo op and stock briefing on how good things were going. He went to Iraq to serve his country.
Drake has stood side-by-side with George Bush. When Bush asked her to jump, she said "how high? If you like the policies of Bush, then vote for more of the same - T. Drake.
If you want to Change the Bush Disaster, then vote NYE. The choice is yours.
Drake has voted her party line
NOT the causes of the people of the Second Congressional District. So now is the time to bring in someone who will listen to the people here. Vote Glenn Nye!
Drake and Nye
Thelma has run into a hornets nest over the GI Bill voting situation. Because of that issue, I'm still not sure what she voted for....yes/no? (and I'm a "yellow-dog-republican")
The real election in the 2nd
The real contest in the 2nd District is not between Drake and Nye, it is between George Bush and Nancy Pelosi.
By any rational measure, Drake has represented her district well, supporting her party in most cases, which is what her Republican constituency elected her to do, and differing from the party line where local issues predominated. Her vulnerability stems not from her own record, but from anger at Bush resulting from some blunders on his part combined with a number of no-win situations that befell his presidency.
Nye's connections with the 2nd district are tenuous at best. He is a creature of the State Department bureaucracy selected and financed as a candidate by the Democratic National Committee.
Drake may have been overly loyal to Bush, but Nye, from the beginning, is merely a puppet for Nancy Pelosi and will never be anything else.
vote
THEMLA!!
Time for Drake to Go
Look at it this way, we're down $75k in our retirement savings. My neighbor's daughter will not be able to complete her sophomore year at UVA as a full-time student because the family's college investments were crushed. Both of these itmes were caused by lack of oversight, regulation and transparency in the financial markets, a function of government.
If I had an employee who had lost my company $75k in two months and so crippled the work environment that we would not recover for several years, I'd let her go. In this case, that employee is Thelma Drake. She must be judged on her record.
Governance is important. Governance is serious business, not a partisan game. Governance has consequences, both for the governed and those we elect to govern us. Thelma Drake must go.
Vote For Nye
Thelma Drake has been nothing more than a spineless rubber stamp for the nightmare we call the Bush years.
Add to that a campaign that says nothing about what she will do, but is all about cutting down her opponent, and I'm done.
I've voted for her in the past, but enough is enough. She's worthless and needs to go.
This Republican is voting for Nye!!