2nd District race 'too close to call' as election nears

VIRGINIA BEACH

The race to represent the 2nd Congressional District remains tight, political observers say.

The contest between U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake and political newcomer Glenn Nye is "too close to call at this point," said Quentin Kidd, a Christopher Newport University political scientist. "Whoever wins is going to be surprised and feel lucky."

Both sides predict a narrow victory.

The Nye camp points to favorable internal poll numbers and the likelihood of high voter turnout of supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama as factors in Nye's favor. Nye is a Democrat.

The Drake side banks on different polls and says the 2nd District's conservative leanings favor the two-term Republican congresswoman and former state delegate.

Voters in the district, which includes Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk, Hampton and the Eastern Shore, solidly favored Republican presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004. In 2006, former Gov. George Allen, in his unsuccessful bid for a U.S. Senate seat, won the 2nd District over Jim Webb.

Drake's narrow 2006 victory over Democrat Phil Kellam, with 51 percent of the vote, could be an indication she is vulnerable.

"When an incumbent does as poorly as Drake did in 2006, she's never safe," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. "If there was ever a year to beat her, it's this year."

Still, Sabato predicted a Drake victory.

Nye, a 34-year-old former foreign service officer, has gained momentum in the past week, supporters say, through appearances with U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner and visits to Norfolk and Virginia Beach by Obama.

Democratic voter turnout, especially among African Americans, is "critical" to Nye's success, Sabato said. The 2nd District is 24 percent black, according to 2007 U.S. Census estimates.

"It's all going to be about turnout, and I don't think that's going to be a problem," said Sandra Brandt, the Democratic party's 2nd District chairwoman.

In 2004, 67 percent of 2nd District voters went to the polls, a high turnout.

In 2006, a non presidential election year, 48 percent of district voters cast ballots.

A recent Nye campaign poll showed Drake leading 47 to 44 percent, putting him in striking distance, supporters say.

A Drake spokesman questioned the reliability of partisan polling and pointed to a mid-October poll commissioned by the Democratic-leaning Web site, Daily Kos, that showed Drake in front by 51 to 37 percent.

"That is very, very close to what we have," said Corry Bliss, Drake's campaign manager. Bliss would not share the campaign's internal polling numbers. "We couldn't be happier. We're winning, and we've been winning the whole time."

Other supporters, while predicting victory, were less assured.

"We expect it to be a very close race for Thelma," said Gary Byler, 2nd District Republican Party chairman. "We are working very hard to make sure the night is not a complete loss for Republicans."

Aaron Applegate, (757) 222-5122, aaron.applegate@pilotonline.com