Let's take a look at the Eastern Region football playoff picture, who's in, who's out and who's on the fence.

First, in both Division 6 and Division 5, with the expanded playoffs the region went to last year, if a team wins seven games, that team is going to make the playoffs. So seven victories is the magic button. Win seven, and you're in. You can count on it. Win six, and you might have a shot. So, essentially, win six, and, with a whole lot of help, you might get in. This year, in Division 6, it's also possible that a 5-5 team could sneak in as the No. 8 seed.

With that mind, here we go:

DIVISION 6

* Oscar Smith is 7-0 and is IN. The Tigers have three more Southeastern District opponents to practice for the playoffs with -- Nansemond River, Deep Creek and Lakeland -- then it'll be time to clobber the region's No. 8 seed on Nov. 7.

* Ocean Lakes is 7-0 and is IN. The Dolphins have a huge Beach District game this Friday against Green Run, but regardless of what happens in that game, Ocean Lakes is in the playoffs. Look for the Dolphins to finish the regular season no worse than 8-2, with 10-0 or 9-1 much more likely.

* Western Branch is 6-1 and is essentially already in. The Bruins will lock up a spot with a victory in one of their final three regular-season games. That should come Friday against Great Bridge. Look for Western Branch to take an 8-2 or 9-1 record into the playoffs.

* Bethel is 6-1 and also is essentially already in. These Bruins also will lock up a spot with a victory in one of their final three regular-season games. That should come Saturday against Heritage. Bethel has a big game coming up Oct. 24 against Hampton. That game will have a lot to say about where Bethel is seeded in the region playoffs. Look for Bethel to take an 8-2 or 9-1 record into the playoffs.

* Cox is 5-3 and essentially needs just one more victory to seal up a playoff spot. That should come Friday at Princess Anne. The Falcons finish their regular season Oct. 31 against Bayside. Cox could be a strong 7-3 going into the playoffs or a weak 6-4. We'll see.

* Kellam is 6-2 and is another team that essentially is already in. The Knights can seal up that playoff spot with a victory in one of their final two regular-season games, against Tallwood Oct. 24 or Green Run 10-31. From a power ratings and seedings standpoint, those two games are huge. If Kellam can win both, Kellam could zoom into position to host a first-round game. But a loss in either game likely means Kellam is on the road for the first round. The worst-case scenario for Kellam is losses in both games, a power rating that falls like the stock market numbers and a first-round playoff matchup at Oscar Smith.

* Woodside is 4-3 and among the teams on the playoff fence. Currently, the Wolverines hold the No. 7 seed. They have winnable games left against Warwick, Gloucester and Menchville. Look for Woodside to finish 7-3 or 6-4 and make the playoffs.

So we have seven teams that look like they're pretty solid to make the playoffs in Division 6: Oscar Smith, Ocean Lakes, Western Branch, Bethel, Cox, Kellam and Woodside. The last spot is seemingly up for grabs among Maury, Tallwood and Landstown, all of which already have four losses. Maury, at 3-4, doesn't even have a winning record, yet currently holds the power ratings edge for the No. 8 seed.

There are a couple of teams lurking in the mist here, though. They are Salem and Bayside -- two more teams with losing records.

So who winds up getting that eighth spot? Let's break it down.

Maury -- the Commodores play at Churchland on Friday, at Norview on Oct. 24, then finish the regular season against Granby. If Maury can win two of those three, its power rating figures to give the Commodores the right to go to Oscar Smith on Nov. 7 and get, well, pick a word.

Tallwood -- the Lions are 4-4. They play at Salem on Friday, then close their regular season at Kellam on Oct. 24. If they can win both games, look for Tallwood to leap-frog Maury in the power ratings and make the playoff field. A loss in either game, though, figures to keep Tallwood out of the playoffs.

Landstown -- the Eagles, like Maury, are 3-4. Their only hope of getting in is sweeping their final three regular-season games, Saturday at Bayside, Oct. 24 against Kempsville and Oct. 31 at Ocean Lakes. The odds are long.

Now, about those two creatures lurking in the dark:

Salem -- the SunDevils also are 3-4, but they still have a shot if they can knock off Tallwood on Friday, then Green Run on Oct. 24, then take care of business against First Colonial on Oct. 31. It's not likely, but it's doable. Never count a Robert Jackson-coached team out. But the odds of all this happening are very long.

Bayside -- the Marlins have had a disappointing season, and they're just 2-5. But if Maury stumbles and winds up 4-6, Tallwood bumbles and winds up 4-6, Landstown and Salem finish no better than 5-5, watch out for Bayside sneaking in the backdoor. If all those things happen to those four teams, and the Marlins can win Saturday against Landstown, then defeat Princess Anne on Oct. 24, then knock off Cox on Oct. 31, Bayside's frustrations could look like ancient history. The Marlins could wind up snaring that No. 8 seed with a 5-5 record. Not likely, but it coud happen.

What likely will happen? Look for Maury, at minimum, to defeat Churchland on Friday and Granby on Oct. 31, finish 6-4 and wind up with the No. 8 seed.

Whew. That's enough for today. We'll look at Division 5 on Friday.

ADVISORY: Users are solely responsible for opinions they post here and for following agreed-upon rules. Comments do not reflect the views or approval of The Virginian-Pilot or this Web site. Comments are automatically checked for inappropriate language, but readers might find some comments offensive or inaccurate. If you believe a comment violates our rules, click the "Report Violation" link below the comment to alert an editor. Repeat offenders will be denied automatic posting privileges.