CNN-Time poll: Obama opens lead over McCain in Va.

Posted to: News Presidential Election


RICHMOND

Democrat Barack Obama has opened a solid lead over Republican John McCain in Virginia, a state that last backed a Democrat for president in 1964, according to a poll published Wednesday.

A CNN-Time poll of 684 likely Virginia voters conducted Sunday through Tuesday shows 53 percent of those surveyed backed Obama while 44 percent backed McCain.

Monday's unsettling Wall Street meltdown occurred in the midst of the telephone interviews with randomly selected voters statewide.

The head-to-head results are comfortably outside the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points in the race for the 13 electoral votes that the GOP has owned for 40 years.

The same poll, conducted Sept. 7-9, showed that among registered voters, McCain was the choice of 50 percent of those surveyed while 46 percent backed Obama.

Since at least 1976, presidential candidates have written Virginia off as inalterably Republican, but both parties this year say the state is now in play.

Obama or his running mate, Joe Biden, have visited the state seven times since Obama assured himself the Democratic nomination in June. McCain headlined a fundraiser and held a rally with his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, before about 20,000 people in Fairfax during that time.

While the poll was heartening to Obama supporters in Virginia, one prominent backer was skeptical as a result of personal experience.

"I hope this isn't deja vu all over again," said former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder. "I'd take it with a grain of salt."

In 1989, Wilder became the nation's first elected black governor by only one-tenth of a percentage point over a white opponent despite polls that indicated he would win easily, as his two white Democratic ticket mates did. The disparity between the polls and his slim victory margin, reflecting reluctance by some voters to cross racial lines, became known as the "Wilder effect" in Virginia politics.

Wilder said race is not nearly the factor it was in his election, but cautioned Obama - who would be the first black president - against accepting so wide a poll advantage at face value.

"I would advise him not to be swayed one way or another by these polls except to say that we have to work harder," said Wilder, who is retiring after one term as Richmond's mayor.

Check PilotOnline.com later for the results of a Mason Dixon poll in Virginia on the presidential race. 



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Election 2008

McCain = Unstable

Palin = Unable

Virginians for OBAMA 08!

Why does Palin talk at us like we are a bunch of hillbilly hicks? Send her and her barf-making folksy little intelligence-insulting soundbites back to MooseBreath, Alaska and stay there. She is a trainwreck. Spouting cliches and Faux News talking points all night and evading answering the questions at the debate tonight. Nauseating. Are Americans really that stupid to swallow this stuff. Palin is an End Times wacko religious wingnut who would love to start a "nuc-u-lar" war so Jesus will come. Save mankind, vote Obama!!

Polls Mean Nothing

zzzzzzz

do you vote party or

Candidate? Approx 32% will vote candidate regardless of who's running, and it has led to disastrious politics. Think before you vote!

you're correct BeanDaddy

The discourse from the right consists almost entirely of throwing feces everywhere. This has been the case for the past twelve years at least. You can see from all the name calling and decries of doom! below that right leaning commentors tend to follow this ignoble tradition. I hope this poll turns out to be predictive. America should not be soiled by slimey tactics and lowbrow attacks. How can the right claim to love America (albeit, mostly via flag stickers and pins) and continue to defecate upon it? These right wing radicals all need to move to compounds in Utah. If Obama wins expect a twenty first century lynch mob to follow --probably with Palin leading it.

If the tables were turned

And McCain was ahead in these polls, the majority of the comments would be:

"Looks like Hussein is going to get crushed by the Maverick and his pit bull"

"Virginians know best and it isn't for Barack Hussein Osama to lead"

"Well, the liberals will be screaming because their Barry isn't ahead"

I read the posts all the time and I think most were accurate with the names people give Obama and what they say about him.

Lest we forget...

Two things to keep in mind...both Kerry and Gore led in the polls and they lost. And remember all those Republicans that voted for Obama in the primaries in order to keep Hillary out of the race...McCain will succeed, no doubt about it.

what's amazing

is people still believe or have faith in polls.

How?

"The disparity between the polls and his slim victory margin, reflecting reluctance by some voters to cross racial lines, became known as the "Wilder effect" in Virginia politics." So, because he didn't win in the magnitude that the polls showed, it somehow is attributed to prejudiced voters? Maybe the polls weren't that accurate. Maybe several of those polled changed their minds. Lots of reasons could be at fault. But somehow, reluctance of voters to cross racial lines seems to be it.

I will not be voting Obama.

I will not be voting Obama. I'm in no mood for Higher Taxes, huge spending on entitlement programs, far-left appointments to the supreme court, enemies licking their chops to have this weak person as our president. This man did not even have the courage to show up and VOTE for a bill either funding or not funding the war. Why? cause he didnt want to be on record.

As for those who think Virginia should come into the "mainstream". Obama IS NOT mainstream. It also give a small insight into the arrogance that some people have and how you feel about Virginians.

I'm not one of the 684 - but one of millions for Obama

McCain didn't get his chance in 2000. So he's trying again in 2008; a very different time, wishing it was indeed 2000.

There have been accolades about a man who fought in Vietnam, was a POW, and now, a maverick. That was THE John McCain of 2000. But that man doesn't exist in 2008. McCain of 2000 would not have flip-flopped on numerous elements of his own scruples. The McCain of 2000 would have never selected Sarah Palin as a running mate.

So the Republicans have chosen a man who is history. The real McCain that was given the nomination in St. Paul isn't on the ballot this year. But in politics, you can't go back. You can only go forward. Barack Obama wants to go forward. John McCain wishes it was 2000, but no matter how many times he clicks his heels, he isn't going home.

Double standard

I seriously doubt the McCain kool aid drinkers would be complaining about these polls if the old coot was leading Obama.

Now lets all sit back and enjoy living in the newest blue state. I may not have to move to NV afterall.

Polls

Smoke and mirrors media blitz

I was one of the 684

and I will be voting Obama, it was not an easy decision, but I just can't take 4 more years of the same old tired politics we've seen for the last 8 years. George Bush has done no favor to the republican party.

About time!!

It's about time Virginians woke up and got with the picture! Obama 08!!

Polling Bias

And to address those who think that the pollsters have their own agenda, they do. All pollsters make their name by how close their polls predict the future outcomes of elections, and there are many sophisticated means the use to get accurate numbers. To suggest that pollsters are interested in skewing the numbers to match their own agenda I think is a discredit to those in the polling industry who try to bring Americans a snapshot in time of what we think about various issues.

Polling accuracy

I just wanted to let people know that you can actually get a valid poll with a sample of 684 people out of 7 million. There is actually a lot of math involved, as I learned in my statistics course at ODU. The margin of error is usually smaller with a larger sample, but because it costs more money to get a larger sample, generally pollsters take a large enough sample to get a margin of error of about 4% or less. This is usually small enough to get a meaningful poll. I agree, as we saw in the New Hampshire primary, that sometimes polls don't always predict the outcome of an election, but statiscally, you don't need to take a very large sample to get a good barometer of the total electorate.

Biased News Media Slants Questions and Demographics

Time has lost its objectivity and should be disregarded as a news media.

McCain's Decisions

The lead in the polls has to do with McCain's decisions. His decision to choose Palin as his running mate, his decision suspend his campaign and then the indecision on the debate. First he wasn't going to debate, then he decided to debate.

Polls

I polled 4 people and got 3 McCain and 1 Obama, Just as accurate as the CNN poll. CNN you need to have a higher proportional numer of people.

It has nothing to do with his RACE

If Obama loses this election it will not be because of his race it will be about his views. He is a liberal just like Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis and John Kerry he has just been repackaged.

Don't worry, be happy

AP Poll: Obama takes a 7-point lead over McCain

All of you "NOBAMAS" need to realize what's happening...

...Palin was a bad decision. Suspending his campaign to work on an unpopular bailout bill was a bad decision. Not leading his fellow Republicans to vote was unfortunate. And consequently, McCain's numbers are starting to slide, some 4.5 weeks til Election Day. Stop being bitter about Obama and the left-wing media machine, and start beating on your neighbor's doors to get out the vote. Sure, a poll of only 486 people doesn't say much about how the vote will really go... but pay attention to the fundraising numbers and national polling results. Obama is creating his largest leads yet in states that are going to decide this thing.

All of you "NOBAMAS" need to realize what's happening...

...Palin was a bad decision. Suspending his campaign to work on an unpopular bailout bill was a bad decision. Not leading his fellow Republicans to vote was unfortunate. And consequently, McCain's numbers are starting to slide, some 4.5 weeks til Election Day. Stop being bitter about Obama and the left-wing media machine, and start beating on your neighbor's doors to get out the vote. Sure, a poll of only 486 people doesn't say much about how the vote will really go... but pay attention to the fundraising numbers and national polling results. Obama is creating his largest leads yet in states that are going to decide this thing.

top of latest &

local news sections. Again, we know whom the Demopilot is pulling for. Not even a sniff for the debate tonight. Where's the balanced reporting. Not @ the Demopilot.

All of you "NOBAMAS" need to realize what's happening...

...Palin was a bad decision. Suspending his campaign to work on an unpopular bailout bill was a bad decision. Not leading his fellow Republicans to vote was unfortunate. And consequently, McCain's numbers are starting to slide, some 4.5 weeks til Election Day. Stop being bitter about Obama and the left-wing media machine, and start beating on your neighbor's doors to get out the vote. Sure, a poll of only 486 people doesn't say much about how the vote will really go... but pay attention to the fundraising numbers and national polling results. Obama is creating his largest leads yet in states that are going to decide this thing.

It's good to know

It's good to know Virginian's can change their views and "keep up" with main-stream America. It shows that we are a growing state.

DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU READ

THE NEWS IS ONLY FOR THE SHEEPEOPLE TO BELIEVE.It won't be over till the vote and I think it won't show the same as these left wing reporting says it will.

Hmmm

a poll of 684 people out of a state of over 7 million people. What city or cities where these people in, what party affiliation if any? 684 out of over 7 million is not a very accurate poll.

Take it...

with a grain of salt....don't be fooled by this poll or the next poll or the next. Always wondered who was polled???????

CNN/Time Poll

Left leaning propaganda news machines. No surprise they would show Mr. Change ahead


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