Let’s talk NFL: Here’s how I see it, so far ...

Entering Week 8 of the NFL season …

I think of the money I could have won had I wagered the four teams most likely to be a combined 21-3 so far reside in Tennessee, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and East Rutherford, N.J.

I still wonder if the only unbeaten team, the 6-0 Titans, is really an AFC title contender, or just a product of soft opponents (12-26 overall) who don’t have a winning record among them.

I think the Pittsburgh Steelers, with their bruises and brutal schedule, more than ever are a team of men’s men.

I hate how injuries to New England’s Tom Brady, San Diego’s Shawne Merriman and the Giants’ Osi Umenyiora – but mostly to Brady – have taken a real edge off this season.

I think of the monumental waste of time and attention regarding the “Pacman” Jones extravaganza in Dallas.

I think of how everyone – well, some of us – swallowed the hype on the Cleveland Browns being some budding powerhouse, when they’ve actually scored eight offensive touchdowns in six games.

I admire how hard the Redskins’ Clinton Portis, the NFL rushing leader, is running and how well Washington’s line is blocking for him.

I think Brett Favre’s last act is careening down a weird, unexpected road with the New York Jets that is sort of a shame.

I like that Buffalo, which doesn’t get much love for anything but chicken wings, has a team with the best chance right now to win the AFC East.

I wonder why more helmets seem to be flying off of heads this season. Haven’t you noticed, too? What’s up with that?

I’ve noticed the improvement of the NFC; it’s 13-10 vs. the AFC. Was 32-32 last year, 24-40 the year before that.

And I think I have a better chance to be president at this point than my preseason Super Bowl prediction – New England over Dallas – has of coming true.

Here at (almost) midseason, we take stock:

 

Most valuable offensive player: Kurt Warner, QB Arizona Cardinals.

You wouldn’t have thought this. Heck, Warner’s not even supposed to be starting, but that bust Matt Leinart couldn’t hold the job Arizona’s trying to hand him. Enter Warner, who at 37 is pretty much channeling the player he was at 30, when he won the second of his two MVP awards and his St. Louis Rams went to the Super Bowl.

 

Most valuable defensive player: Albert Haynesworth, DT Tennessee Titans.

The 6-6, 320-pound All-Pro is the bell cow of the Titans’ top-three defense. He has averaged about four tackles a game, deflected two passes, forced a fumble and has matched his career high with six sacks.

But kudos, too, to Charles Woodson of the Packers and Redskins middle linebacker London Fletcher. Woodson, a 32-year-old cornerback, is tied for the league lead in interceptions (four) and has taken two back for touchdowns despite playing with a broken toe that has limited his practice.

Fletcher has 60 tackles and has been an emotional, clutch leader on the Washington defense.

Biggest underachievers: Dallas Cowboys.

Duh. Everybody’s got to be good at something. The Cowboys are good at not walking the walk. They just can’t stop people. And with Tony Romo out, they’re not equipped to win shootouts. Nice next three games, too: Tampa Bay, New York Giants and the Redskins, the latter two on the road. Hold on, you ’Boy backers. It could get rough.

Dishonorable mention: San Diego Chargers. A rushing attack with LaDainian Tomlinson that’s not even gaining 100 yards per game? Stunning. But that’s what toe injuries can do to running backs.

Most overrated team: New Orleans Saints.

Sure, the Saints are the only team averaging 400 yards at this point. But what are they doing with it? They’re 3-4. They’re winless on the road (0-3). They’ve lost six fumbles and Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions; the 13 turnovers are fifth-most in the league. And now Reggie Bush will be out a few weeks after knee surgery.

Keep a suspicious eye on: the Denver Broncos.

 

Buy stocks:

Tampa Bay Bucs (5-2) Tough makeup, two losses by seven points.

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) Could cruise to title in sorry NFC West.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) Check Brian Westbrook’s X-rays before buying, however.

 

Sell stocks:

New York Jets (3-3) Just a feeling it’s going to end badly for Favre and Jets.

Seattle Seahawks (1-5) Floor has crumbled beneath this proud franchise.

Minnesota Vikings (3-4) Inconsistent, and facing one of league’s toughest schedules (at Tampa, at Jacksonville, at Arizona) from here.

So let’s see how The Pilot’s (translation: my) preseason predictions are working out, shall we?

 

Top impact rookies

1. Sedrick Ellis, Saints DT

2. Glenn Dorsey, Chiefs DT

3. Matt Ryan, Falcons QB

The prize here is Ryan, the overall No.6 draft pick. He’s a strong favorite to win Rookie of the Year, although Bears RB Matt Forte, who in a hideous oversight wasn’t even forecast among the top eight rookies, is proving to be a stud. Ryan has thrown for 5 TDs with only 3 INTs, but more than that has helped clear the air around the surprising Falcons (4-2).

As for Ellis, the No. 7 pick has been out since Week 4 with a knee injury. Meanwhile, No. 5 pick Dorsey, a highly paid run-stuffer, was just declared a bust by a Kansas City columnist. So let’s assume things can only get better from here for Mr. Dorsey.

 

Coaches in trouble

1. Lane Kiffin, Raiders

2. Mike Nolan, 49ers

3. Scott Linehan, Rams

Well, all of these guys are history, but I won’t pop the cork celebrating their firings. Predicting their demise was shooting fish in a bathtub, with no water in it.

 

Most likely comeback players

1. Jake Delhomme, Panthers QB

2. Ricky Williams, Dolphins RB.

Williams has created little buzz, so to speak – 292 all-purpose yards, 1 TD. But Delhomme? That’s a good-looking Panther. Carolina’s tied for first in the NFC South with Tampa Bay and Delhomme, returning from “Tommy John” arm surgery, is 10th in passing yards (1,533). He has completed 59 percent of his passes, with 7 TDs and 5 INTs.

 

Most likely second-year stars to break out

1. Marshawn Lynch, Bills RB

2. LaMarr Woodley, Steelers LB

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions WR

Gotta give it to Woodley here, but Johnson’s breaking out just fine, too. An outside linebacker, Woodley has 7½ sacks, fourth-most in the league; he also as an interception and returned a fumble for a TD.

Johnson’s hardly flopped, however. He’s 10th with 25 receptions, has 4 TDs and averages 21 yards per catch, highest of anyone with at least 25 catches.

Lynch has already caught more balls (19) than last season (18), but his 389 rushing yards are off the pace of his 1,115-yard rookie season.

 

Predicted playoff teams

AFC

Division winners

New England (13-3), Pittsburgh (10-6), Indianapolis (12-4), San Diego (12-4).

Wildcards

Cleveland (9-7), Jacksonville (10-6).

5-1 Steelers have the best chance to hit their predicted mark. Certainly not San Diego, which has already lost four times. Everyone, however, still has playoff hope except probably Cleveland, which is a rickety disappointment at 2-4.

Biggest whiff Picking the Titans to go 7-9 and miss the playoffs. They will have to TRY to miss the playoffs from here, and if they do, commissioner Roger Goodell should investigate.

 

NFC

Division winners

Dallas (12-4), Minnesota (10-6),

New Orleans (10-6), Seattle (10-6).

Wildcards

Philadelphia (10-6), Carolina (9-7).

What a bunch of blah. Dallas somehow might implode right out of the postseason picture, the Vikings and Saints are both 3-4, and 1-5 Seattle just stinks out loud.

Biggest whiff, non-Seattle division

Pre-calling the Falcons a 2-14 weakling. At 4-2, with a new coach in Mike Smith, RB Michael Turner averaging 100 yards and rookie QB Matt Ryan actually playing well rather than running for his life like most rookie QBs, Atlanta’s a decent team and very watchable story.

 

And in closing …

It has been a rough season for referee Ed Hochuli. You know, the one with the “guns.” He blew his whistle early and hosed San Diego. He has been in the middle of two or three other brouhahas. He has drawn boos. Hate mail. Nobody invites him to parties anymore. Well, I’m not sure about that, but he needs some love. I wrote him a poem:

 

The Ballad of Ed Hochuli:

There once was a head referee

Who went by the name Hochuli

His arms were like stumps

Yet he took big lumps

For costing the Bolts victory

 

There’s no doubt Jay Cutler fumbled

Ed blew the call, boy he bumbled

He then got hate-mailed

From whiners who wailed

Cried, moaned and certainly grumbled

 

But Ed answered, “It was my bad.”

You folks have a right to be mad.”

He stood to the heat

For his early tweet

Still, the league was not very glad

 

It marked old Ed Hochuli down

As guilty for making it frown

The suits do not like

When zebra gaffes strike

And blunder’s the talk of the town

 

So, Ed carries on down the road

With judgmental power bestowed

He made a mistake

He’ll never quite shake

The Chargers, a win they’re still owed

 

Tom Robinson, 757-446-2518 or tom.robinson@pilotonline.com