McCain, Obama a hair's breadth apart in Virginia, poll says

RICHMOND

Although Virginia remains a toss up in the presidential campaign, Democrat Barack Obama is gaining momentum in a state poll and has a resounding financial advantage over Republican John McCain as their races move into the final 12 days.

Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent in a survey of 625 likely Virginia voters that was conducted Monday and Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for a consortium of state newspapers and television stations.

A critical 8 percent of potential voters are undecided.

Obama's 2-percentage-point lead falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, technically making the Virginia race a dead heat. Even so, the survey echoes national trends in showing Obama gaining ground. Mason-Dixon polls released at the start of October and in September showed McCain with 3-percentage-point leads.

Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is hotly contested in the Nov. 4 election. Obama spent Wednesday campaigning in Richmond and Leesburg - in his eighth visit to the state since spring, compared with three by McCain. Virginia has not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Both campaigns say they are hopeful their candidates will make more personal appearances in Virginia before Election Day and are promising a strong presence of prominent surrogate speakers.

"The fact that McCain still has to fight for Virginia this late in the campaign is not a good sign for his national prospects," said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.

Virginia's outcome, strategists from each side agree, may depend on which campaign does a better job of prodding its likely supporters to go to the polls. Each campaign is boasting a volunteer force in excess of 10,000 partisans to knock on doors, fold fliers and make phone calls.

Obama ads will dominate airwaves during the closing days of the campaign as a result of the Democrat's huge advantage over McCain in national fundraising. Obama has declined to accept public financing for his campaign - reversing a pledge - and has raised more than $200 million in the past two months. McCain, who accepted public financing, has been limited this fall to the $84 million federal allotment.

The result is that Obama is spending more money than McCain on broadcast advertising across the nation, and almost three times as much in Virginia, according to CMAG, a service that monitors political advertising. In Virginia, Obama has spent $14.7 million on broadcast ads compared with $5.6 million by McCain. In Hampton Roads, Obama has set aside $1.45 million compared with $517,000 by McCain.

Mason-Dixon found Obama has surged to a 49-to-38 percent lead among independent voters in Virginia, who often decide close state elections. Predictably, Republicans favored McCain and Democrats supported Obama by roughly 8- 1 ratios.

The nation's troubled economy is by far the top issue to state voters. Fifty-seven percent ranked it as their primary concern. Eleven percent ranked the war on terrorism and national security as the greatest problem, which put it second on the list of concerns.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters said Obama would do a better job handling the economy; 41 percent gave the edge to McCain. Obama was credited with the better plan for improving health care.

McCain was chosen as the better candidate to manage national security and the Iraq War, and to control government spending and taxes.

Obama had almost a 2-to-1 lead in Northern Virginia, the state's most populous region. McCain had an edge in Southwest Virginia, the Richmond area and the Shenandoah Valley. The candidates appeared to be running close to even in Hampton Roads and Southside.

Coker said Hampton Roads will be critical in determining Virginia's victor.

When those polled are grouped by gender, age or race, Obama has the largest support among women, younger people and blacks, while McCain has more support from men, older people and whites. McCain also has stronger support from those who have served in the military.

A key variable in the race is whether Obama's poll numbers are inflated by white respondents who profess support for him but in the privacy of the voting booth will cast a ballot for his opponent - a phenomenon that has been observed in other campaigns involving a black candidate.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said the falloff could be as high as 3 percent. But in Obama's case, he said, the lag could be more than compensated for by millions of new voters - mainly black people and young people - who registered this year.

Virginia's election rolls have increased this year by a record 436,155 prospective voters, bringing the total to just over 5 million.

Sabato, in his widely read Web site called Crystal Ball, will predict today that Obama will win Virginia in November.

"Most of the Republicans I talk to are down," he said. "They sense what's coming."

Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain, dismissed the polls.

"We don't put stock in them," she said. "We remain focused on a grass-roots, get-out-the vote effort and our message of cutting taxes."

Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com