RICHMOND
Although Virginia remains a toss up in the presidential campaign, Democrat Barack Obama is gaining momentum in a state poll and has a resounding financial advantage over Republican John McCain as their races move into the final 12 days.
Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent in a survey of 625 likely Virginia voters that was conducted Monday and Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for a consortium of state newspapers and television stations.
A critical 8 percent of potential voters are undecided.
Obama's 2-percentage-point lead falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, technically making the Virginia race a dead heat. Even so, the survey echoes national trends in showing Obama gaining ground. Mason-Dixon polls released at the start of October and in September showed McCain with 3-percentage-point leads.
Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is hotly contested in the Nov. 4 election. Obama spent Wednesday campaigning in Richmond and Leesburg - in his eighth visit to the state since spring, compared with three by McCain. Virginia has not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Both campaigns say they are hopeful their candidates will make more personal appearances in Virginia before Election Day and are promising a strong presence of prominent surrogate speakers.
"The fact that McCain still has to fight for Virginia this late in the campaign is not a good sign for his national prospects," said J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.
Virginia's outcome, strategists from each side agree, may depend on which campaign does a better job of prodding its likely supporters to go to the polls. Each campaign is boasting a volunteer force in excess of 10,000 partisans to knock on doors, fold fliers and make phone calls.
Obama ads will dominate airwaves during the closing days of the campaign as a result of the Democrat's huge advantage over McCain in national fundraising. Obama has declined to accept public financing for his campaign - reversing a pledge - and has raised more than $200 million in the past two months. McCain, who accepted public financing, has been limited this fall to the $84 million federal allotment.
The result is that Obama is spending more money than McCain on broadcast advertising across the nation, and almost three times as much in Virginia, according to CMAG, a service that monitors political advertising. In Virginia, Obama has spent $14.7 million on broadcast ads compared with $5.6 million by McCain. In Hampton Roads, Obama has set aside $1.45 million compared with $517,000 by McCain.
Mason-Dixon found Obama has surged to a 49-to-38 percent lead among independent voters in Virginia, who often decide close state elections. Predictably, Republicans favored McCain and Democrats supported Obama by roughly 8- 1 ratios.
The nation's troubled economy is by far the top issue to state voters. Fifty-seven percent ranked it as their primary concern. Eleven percent ranked the war on terrorism and national security as the greatest problem, which put it second on the list of concerns.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters said Obama would do a better job handling the economy; 41 percent gave the edge to McCain. Obama was credited with the better plan for improving health care.
McCain was chosen as the better candidate to manage national security and the Iraq War, and to control government spending and taxes.
Obama had almost a 2-to-1 lead in Northern Virginia, the state's most populous region. McCain had an edge in Southwest Virginia, the Richmond area and the Shenandoah Valley. The candidates appeared to be running close to even in Hampton Roads and Southside.
Coker said Hampton Roads will be critical in determining Virginia's victor.
When those polled are grouped by gender, age or race, Obama has the largest support among women, younger people and blacks, while McCain has more support from men, older people and whites. McCain also has stronger support from those who have served in the military.
A key variable in the race is whether Obama's poll numbers are inflated by white respondents who profess support for him but in the privacy of the voting booth will cast a ballot for his opponent - a phenomenon that has been observed in other campaigns involving a black candidate.
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said the falloff could be as high as 3 percent. But in Obama's case, he said, the lag could be more than compensated for by millions of new voters - mainly black people and young people - who registered this year.
Virginia's election rolls have increased this year by a record 436,155 prospective voters, bringing the total to just over 5 million.
Sabato, in his widely read Web site called Crystal Ball, will predict today that Obama will win Virginia in November.
"Most of the Republicans I talk to are down," he said. "They sense what's coming."
Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain, dismissed the polls.
"We don't put stock in them," she said. "We remain focused on a grass-roots, get-out-the vote effort and our message of cutting taxes."
Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com
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the split is within the republican party
The divide today is not between Democrats and Republicans. This Republican party pushed Ron Paul out and is the reason for the lack of support from highly qualified Republicans as Hagel, Lugar, and General Powell. They caused Republican endorsements for Obama since day one, and through today with the endorsment of former Republican Gov. William Weld because of Obama's ability to unite.
The Republican Party today has become extremely narrow, and Gov. Palin as VP and possibly our President is truly scary to me. This party is causing me to vote Democrat too for the first time in my life. I'm just fine with a bi-partisan Obama cabinet with Warren Buffett and highly qualified Republicans like Hagel, Lugar, and Powell, so we can finally end the war in Congress that we've seen for the last 16 years.
troll is right
Government is not an entitlement program. It was not intended to take care of you or provide for you. By asking government to provide, you marginalizing success. You are creating martyrs out of a entire class of people that just need to grab those boot straps. Life isn't fair. Life cannot be fair. You cannot be lucky. You must be prepared by making sacrifices, making sure the person you choose to have children with is right for you, and getting an education anyway possible by yourself!
I'm 50,000 in debt for school. Proud to pay for the reason I'm making pretty good money. Stop looking to government to solve your perceived societal shortcomings. Government makes it worse.
Chrissmith
Write Ron Paul's name in. Write anyone in. I'm voting libertarian, party of Jefferson values. Bob Barr is on the ballot. But that is me. I don't hate anyone for voting either way, but if you take a gander through the posts just in this story you'd think that we hate those not voting for "your" candidate.
We are voting for America and an American, not a party. Stop voting for a party!
OMG!
We are NOT a democracy! We are a "Democratic Republic". For those of you with JUST a government edumacation, that means we use a democratic process to elect people to represent us.
The framers thought of democracy as "MOB RULE"
Next, The government is not responsible to provide living quarters, expenses, drugs, medical, or any of the dozen or so "ENTITLEMENTS" that people seem to think they deserve.
Obama is a socialist, McCain is almost as bad, quite frankly I wish Ron Paul was running, at least he made sense.
Two parties
Chris I agree. Goes back to GOB mentality. Better yet, do away with the electoral and allow anyone to run for Prez, no ticket. This includes allowing them to participate in debates then whomever gets the most direct votes is the Prez and second highest is VP.
RE: term limits
Hate to say it, but term limits are what we currently have, and will be stuck with for many more decades.
Maybe we can stick to the subject.
Same with two parties
Grumpy,
The same thing is said for voting only Democrat or Republican. Us Vs. Them mentality. Democrats said Bush hurt America with US. Vs. The World, you are with us or against attitude. Look at the posts. We are beginning to hate each other. All we see is fighting back and forth.
Stop voting to split this nation!!
Term Limits
Without them:
"Good ol'boys" club
Stagnant thinking
Complacency
Corruption
Bullying new members
Special interests rule
I feel two terms is plenty to get anyones agenda done.
Multiracial actually.....
So I guess people are only half prejudice against Mr. Obama :-\
Going back to listening to Mariah Carey and watching Tiger Woods!
GO OBAMA
Good job Democrats. It's time to unseat all Republicans. Can't wait to November 4th.
To Bondage
Back and forth. Back and forth. Republican and democrats, all the same. You, those backing McCain or Obama, are childish. All you do is fight. Bicker, Bicker, and Bicker. When are you going to stand up for America instead of a party. George Bush was the biggest liberal/socialist this side of the Atlantic pond.
His social spending policies were ludicrous. McCains and Obama's will be the same. Both are socialists. Obama is just a little closer to communist, but I digress.
You are becoming citizens with an entitlement complex. You want everything for free and everyone else's success is reason to spread wealth around. Both parties are going to follow this path. You grew up remember? Stop blaming someone more successful than you, blame yourself. Vote third party. Be different. Be smart. Be a better American. Stop supporting the two party system. YOU are destroying this nation.
Tax Cuts for Working Americans is Good Public Policy!
Tax policies that help the majority of working-class Americans, job creation plans that spur energy independence and lower utility bills, improved health-care options, programs that ensure security for our seniors and financial aid for college-bound youth are what we need to bring prosperity back to America. This isn’t socialism, it is good public policy!
Who has the competence to address this? Financial expert Warren Buffett and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker are his economic advisors . He is Senator Barack Obama I’m voting for the interests of my family and those who can help folks like us address this mess. Together, let’s bring dignity and prosperity back to America. We need meaningful change. Vote Obama-Biden!
Get over it Williamw92608
Everyday you do the same old nonsense by addressing Barack Obama as B.Hussein. It's not working, no one is intimidated by his middle name. Go ahead and continue to practice, because on Wednesday November 5th, it will President Barack Hussein Obama! Virginia will be very blue to include the faces of the Republicans!
Obama's No Socialist
What is this nonsense about Obama being a socialist? All he's proposing is that we go back to the tax rates we had in the 1990s for families earning more than $250,000 a year. Was the U.S. a socialist country in the 1990s? I don't think so.
In fact, in the 1990s, our economy was doing great! Now we've had 8 years of the Bush tax rates that McCain/Palin like so much, as where has it gotten us? Do you like the economy now?
We need change, not more of the same.
Obama for me
Obama's three main priorities are getting out of Iraq, healthcare, and American energy independence. Those are my priorities as well. Go Obama!
Find a poll that comforts you
I don't think Obama will ever see the inside of the White House except as a visitor.
He has two things going against him. He's African-American, and he's way too liberal for most Americans. Barring a gargantuan blunder by the Republican candidate, John McCain, those two factors will put Obama on the short end of the vote count.
Race is a factor in America, though no one is going to admit to being prejudiced to a pollster or a journalist. Nevertheless, I believe there remains a substantial number of people who simply will not vote to put an African-American in the White House.
Vote!
Whoever you are supporting.....make sure you vote! Early voting has begun in Virginia and the lines WILL be LONG on election day.
Qualifications
Palin and her cheerleader Limbaugh appear to think the meaning of transformational leadership is to destroy the country from within, playing right into the hands of OBL, and even though she still doesn't understand the job of the VP, she could possibly be our next President.
I don't expect Palin to be an expert on the Constitution like Sen. Obama, she should know though what the job of a VP is two weeks before the elections.
Neither higschool drop out Limbaugh or Palin has a clue about the economy, yet they have the nerves to call me a socialist because I do not support redistributing more wealth to the crooks on Wall Street. Sen. McCain admitted himself during the primaries he doesn't have a clue either, and proved it very well during the last couple of months. I'm not voting for another Bush Junior.
Who would Ronald Reagan vote for?
Ronald Reagan was asking the right questions in 1980 and he is asking the right questions now. This was the republican party before it turned into a zookeeper:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqfedYAAGEI
Thanks for putting the
Thanks for putting the "Obama crimes" link first in your post. It was a signal that it was a parody. Fear and Smear aren't going to work this time. The right might actually have to talk about actual issues for a change.
Let's snuff out this foolish hate and stupidity.
Term limits aren't good
It should be up to the voters whether or not the incumbent stays for another term.
there is only one poll
the one on November 4th.
We need to kick all Republicans out and start from scratch with highly qualified Republicans like General Powell, Lugar, Coburn and Hagel.
I'll voting Democrat for the first time in my life.
Grumpy
"We need Term Limits for ALL elected officials and a constitutional amendment doing away with the Electoral College!"
I definitely agree with you that there should be term limits for all elected officials.
Republican for Obama
I am a lifelong registered Republican and I am voting for Barak Obama, Mark Warner and Glenn Nye.
McCain doesn't have the intellect to be president, he's devisive, he's erratic, and his health care policy is a disaster waiting to happen. Palin is a complete joke. In no way is she qualified to be president.
Mark Warner will be a wonderful senator. Smart, hard working, reasonable.
Thelma Drake just plain has to go.
not really discrediting
Not to discredit this so-called scientific poll (statistics aren't really that scientific, ask a gambler). For every Tom, Dick and Harry that does a poll, you gotta take it with a grain of salt. Senator Obama destroyed Senator Clinton by 11, that is double-digit percentage points in the New Hampshire Primary polls only to get crushed by Senator Clinton. There have been many examples of this during the whole election process, but that is one of the more notable ones.
Good Night
Good Night everyone, Try to avoid the 4 letter words like hate and even love. McCain and Obama are two good souls with different ideas. I will vote for Obama but not because I 'hate' McCain or 'love' Obama. It is time to let a younger person have a crack at fixing our broken world image, our broken greed based economy, our broken health care, etc. In fact I am surprised anyone a smart as Obama would even take this on but thank God that he has.
Thank you and good night
I hate the media attacking
I hate the media attacking John McCain, Sarah Palin, and Hillary Clinton. If there is anything negative about Barack Obama like ACORN the left wing media says nouthing about it. They say there is voter fraud not "ACORN." My pick this November 4th John McCain-Sarah Palin and Mark Warner!
I don't get it!
What are you people thinking? Do you really understand or can you really comprehend what an Obama Presidency will really mean? This will be the end of the republic an end to democracy and end to freedom. The "Framers" never intended for politics to be where it is today. Please, I beg you, please do your research. An Obama presidency WILL destroy this country. We're meant to be a democracy not a socialist state.
Poll of this stream
Let's see...if we took a count of this discussion stream it is obvious that the main things on Americans minds are Socialism, taxes, religion and guns. Guns probably being number 1. So much for the economic crisis, education of our children, affordable health care, Iraq, the environment, etc.
The Polls Show A Nation Divided
Half of us +- see things differently from the other half. This is nothing new.. one thing that is different is the shock value of the attack ads has diminished for many people who are giving the real issues in this election some serious and intelligent consideration. That is one reason that those ads are a negative to McCain in the voter polls. It may have worked in the past but that was then and this is now. Expectations are high and only Obama is keeping the discussion elevated in all respects.