McCain makes Virginia a rare stop on campaign trail

RICHMOND

By the time John McCain and Sarah Palin campaign in Virginia Beach on Monday - their second appearance in the state this election season - Barack Obama and Joe Biden, their Democratic rivals in the presidential race, collectively will have been to Virginia nearly a dozen times.

That disparity provides a window into the two campaigns in this battleground state.

Though neither side will talk about staff sizes and budgets in Virginia, objective measures suggest that Obama's war chest has given him more freedom to lavish resources on the state.

"Obama can afford to make Virginia competitive," said Quentin Kidd, a political

science professor at Christopher Newport University in Newport News.

McCain is limited by the restrictions of public campaign financing he accepted - money and rules Obama eschewed after initially saying he would abide by them. That has enabled Obama to run a more ambitious campaign here than McCain, whose state motto seems to be "less is more."

And it may explain why Obama has visited more often, has more than twice as many local campaign offices, has sent high-profile surrogates and is running about double the local television commercials across the state.

Still, money spent does not assure election results.

"In a state with almost 5 million voters, you're not going to win a presidential contest simply by having more staffers or store front offices," said University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato. It is that reality - coupled with the notion that Virginia's political landscape remains favorable to the GOP - that comforts Republicans worried about polls showing a tight race in the state.

"Barack Obama still has to do well in a traditional red state," said Jerry Kilgore, a former Virginia attorney general who is a state co-chairman for McCain's campaign.

"We know Barack Obama has put a lot of time and money in Virginia, and we know it's going to be close," he continued. "But we feel confident in the end that McCain and Palin are going to win because they share Virginia values."

Partisan cheerleading notwithstanding, historic voting patterns favor the GOP here, despite recent Democratic success in statewide votes.

That's why McCain has relied on Kilgore, former Gov. George Allen, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, Attorney General Bob McDonnell and other Virginia Republicans to sell his message. They are known quantities, people who "talk directly to the voters in Virginia," said McCain spokeswoman Gail Gitcho. "They have a relationship with them. They understand them. They understand their values."

McCain strategists believe that personal touch makes up for whatever their Virginia operation lacks in scope.

In many ways, the people each campaign dispatches are an indication of the voters they want to woo, Old Dominion University communication professor Burton St. John observed.

So when the rapper Nas appears at an Obama voter registration drive, as he did recently at Hampton University, it is an appeal to young voters.

The goal for any surrogate is "to maximize a sense of relationship based on who are the most likely voters," St. John said.

Older people, who are more consistent voters, trend Republican, though Obama is banking on newly registered folks, including young and minority voters, to change the calculus in his favor.

Despite the appeal of any given personality, famous or not, there is no substitute for the candidates themselves.

On that measure, Obama is ahead of McCain in Virginia.

Clark Stevens, an Obama spokesman, said the campaign has made conscious decisions since securing the nomination to focus on the state, starting with a visit by the candidate to Bristol days after the primary season ended in June.

Including that stop, Obama has visited Virginia six times, Biden has made four trips, and each man's spouse has appeared twice. McCain and Palin held a rally in Fairfax last month that drew thousands, in their sole previous visit to the state.

That's "a very lopsided courtship so far in favor of the Democrats," said Sabato. "McCain needs to show more interest in the state."

Julian Walker, (804) 697-1564, julian.walker@pilotonline.com