Navy is ballast for region's economy

Amid all the signs of a depressed national economy - stalled home sales, a depreciating dollar, fewer jobs, falling stocks - Hampton Roads is still doing better than most regions across the nation.

An analysis by Moody's Economy.com showed that about two-thirds of the country's 381 metropolitan areas are in recession and another 20 percent, including Richmond, are at risk of recession. In Hampton Roads, however, Moody's found that the economy was expanding.

That's not a misprint.

For that, we can thank the Department of Defense, which generates more than 40 percent of our regional income. Old Dominion University's annual State of the Region report, released recently, found that regional economic growth this year has been about 1.7 percent. That's well below our 35-year average of 3.4 percent, but it's still growth.

Defense spending in Hampton Roads, including pay and procurements, is $18.3 billion this year and is responsible for more than 70 percent of the economic growth in the region since 2000.

The rate of unemployment here is below the national average, and per capita income is above average. Tourism, predictably, has slowed after steady increases during the past decade.

Here's the bad news: Population growth has virtually stopped, and the ripple effect is a decline in home construction and new jobs. Authors of the ODU report predict Hampton Roads will see the economy bottom out in the middle of 2009.

The report concludes: "All things considered, things definitely could be worse."

As we hear about businesses closing, homes lost to foreclosure and food pantries with bare shelves, that's worth remembering.