The earliest signs of who will be the next president might spring from Virginia and how undecided white voters such as John Morris and Sidney Blankenbeckler cast their ballots.
"I'm pretty disappointed in Republicans right now, and I don't think John McCain is offering a lot that's new," said Morris, a retired Navy captain who lives in Chesterfield County, a prosperous Richmond suburb. "But frankly, I'm scared of Obama and some of the things he's been talking about."
Three hundred miles west, in tiny Sugar Grove, a farming and manufacturing community deep in the Appalachians, Blankenbeckler worries that a McCain victory would mean "four more years of kind of dragging along" but that Obama might be "borderline Socialist." Blankenbeckler said he is trying to decide "which is least worst."
Virginia will be among the first states to report results Tuesday night, and should it vote Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1964 - as many polls suggest - Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
In addition to Virginia, Coker said, the effect could tilt the scales to McCain in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said he normally expects about a 2 percent dip in white support for a black candidate on Election Day - not enough, he predicted, to tilt victory to McCain nationally or in Virginia.
And Obama's campaign might have insulated its candidate against any drop-off in white support, Sabato said, by registering millions of new voters in minority communities and college towns across the nation where the Democratic nominee appears especially popular.
Obama's strategists dispute the notion of a gap between the Illinois senator's white support in polls and in actual voting. Surveys accurately predicted the votes Obama received in most of the presidential primary elections earlier this year, they note, and Obama split the white vote evenly with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia's Democratic primary.
Other analysts note that Virginia's electorate today is a considerably different from 1989, largely because of explosive growth in the Washington, D.C., suburbs and an influx of immigrants.
Bob Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, said he expects that highly motivated black voters and mostly Latino immigrants unhappy with GOP calls for tighter immigration laws will produce a 65,000-vote margin for Obama in Northern Virginia, more than double the advantage that Democrat John Kerry enjoyed there in 2004.
Holsworth said Obama also might benefit from having taken time to "become a familiar face" to Virginians. While other Democratic presidential candidates have tended to give up early on Virginia, Obama has shown up early and often - going to party functions and stumping for Virginia Democrats such as Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb before he was running himself.
Whatever the impact of race, Obama clearly is benefiting from President Bush's unpopularity in Virginia and around the nation. McCain has been cast as an heir to Bush "and he gets tarred with that brush," said U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County Republican who is giving up his congressional seat and worries that it, too, will slip into Democratic hands.
Obama approaches Election Day with an overwhelming money advantage over McCain, stemming from his decision to for go federal financing of his campaign and raise cash on his own. As a result, Obama has opened 50 campaign offices around Virginia and has outspent McCain on broadcast advertising by more than 3-to-1.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama with a 61 percent to 31 percent lead in populous Northern Virginia and a 50 percent to 40 percent lead in Hampton Roads. McCain is ahead in all other regions.
Among whites, McCain holds a 53 percent to 36 percent lead. Among blacks, Obama has a 92 percent to 5 percent advantage.
Each campaign boasts an army of more than 10,000 volunteers to lead what it predicts will be an unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort on Tuesday.
"I've never seen anything like this," said Del. Kenneth Melvin, D-Portsmouth, who supports Obama. "It's incredible. There's electricity in the air."
Morton Blackwell, one of the state's two representatives on the Republican National Committee, said, "I can tell you that many conservative interest groups out there are not sitting on their hands in this election."
Blackwell identified organizations that are pro-gun rights, anti-abortion and anti-union and added that if it were not for the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate, "a lot of these conservative interest groups would not be involved."
The state's GOP chairman - Del. Jeff Frederick of Prince William County - criticized the McCain campaign recently in The Washington Times for not soliciting his advice on Virginia. However, Frederick sought to minimize his concerns late last week.
"We're not worrying about how we feel," he said. "We're just working our butts off to get John McCain elected."
Warren Fiske, (804) 697-1565, warren.fiske@pilotonline.com
Dale Eisman, (703) 913-9872, dale.eisman@pilotonline.com
Delicious
Digg
Reddit
Facebook
Google
Yahoo
Ms. Poppy
Keep smoking your poppy seeds. You sound quite obsolete. I will feel sad for you if Obama wins because, you my dear, don't care about your taxes being raised because they won't be. You are simply stating a phony reason for not voting for Obama. If it were not taxes, it would be socialialism, (hot air only). If not that you would think of something
else. You don't understand, Obama Has the "Righteouse Wind behind his back." Just wish him well and pray for his safety. I think that if John McCain wins it will be okay with me because deep down he is a fine, decent man who got caught up in the right wing red meat of the party just to win. All the negative ads, he doesn't like but he knows that motivates his racist base. Believe me if we wins, you will be sorely disappointed but it will be great to see how he turns his back on the right wing of his party because he basically can't stand you. He needs you now, but will dump you like a hot potato if he wins. Count on it!
Kstebritz, Rogue teachers can always be found on both sides
Just because of some story about a Kindergarten teacher (who, where, when?) thought she should get 5 year olds to sign pledges does not make it the norm by any means. The greater issue is the quality of tenured teachers. Yes teachers' unions can be a problem, but not unsolvable. What I like about Obama is that his allegiances are not of the old school. Most of his money comes from millions of donors. I don't think he would be afraid to take on some of the entrenched power brokers in the country. He has stated over and over again that those who cannot teach should find another line of work, and those who can should be well paid. You are writing off the education of millions by saying that we can't make the necessary changes to establish the best education system in the world. Can we make it the best? Or are we too complacent and willing to settle for inferior schools? I am not, but maybe a lot of people just don't care enough about America anymore.
Who's the Nazi?
"Today there was an article written about a kindergarten teacher that had her class sign a pledge that they would not criticize but protect lesbians’, gays & transgender people specifically . . . .Just the bad seeds being planted in the youth just as was done in nazi Germany. No values, no morals noBama"
Hitler went after homosexuals just like any of the other target groups on his laundry list. You're obvious distain for them seems more in line with Hitler than liberal acceptance. Anyway you should not throw around the nazi label willy nilly. It makes you appear ridiculous
Since when did hate become a moral and a value?
wizard if you are who you say you are
" Wizard101 on Mon, 11/03/2008 at 1:48 pm.
To Be Continued
As an 86 year old AA - and a Democratic voter for the last 60 years and a Clinton supporter
-these are troubling
problems for me -"
You would know the issues you mention are infact non issues at all. I question your modivation and lack of knowledge.
Obama '08
For Len Rothman
You state “Recruiting good teachers and paying them well…teaching is arguably the most important profession we have.” I can agree with that in principle but the problem is the teacher unions. Today there was an article written about a kindergarten teacher that had her class sign a pledge that they would not criticize but protect lesbians’, gays & transgender people specifically. This is the stuff that democrats support and unfortunately with the do nothing congress and Obama it will only get worse. Just the bad seeds being planted in the youth just as was done in nazi Germany. No values, no morals noBama
Not voting OBAMA
To Be Continued
As an 86 year old AA - and a Democratic voter for the last 60 years and a Clinton supporter
-these are troubling
problems for me -
l. Colin Powell - a Bush - Sec of State that got us into this war
stating Weapons of Mass Destruction which proved erroneous -- endorses
Obama who readily accepts the endorsement - wasn't Obama against the
war in Iraq?
2. Everyone thinks Bill Ayers is not a situation that is disturbing -
people died because of him just like McVeigh - only not as many.
Wright, Rezko and all the other associations - if you know nothing
about a person's character, which we don't about Sen Obama - you are
obliged to look at his friends.
3. Bothers me that Sen Obama did not know that Wright was a racist,
that Ayers was a terrorist, that Rezko was a crook, media states that Acorn was
involved with voting fraud - what does he know?
Look in the Mirror johnb
So johnb, you don't consider John Dean's comments worthwhile because he's a know liar but you accept statements by Bush, Cheney and McCain as gospel though they too are known liars. I would wonder why but I read the article and you are right in character as a follower of the authoritarian line Putting clinging to ideology when reality contradicts it is not patriotic, it's idiotic and it is destructive to us as a society and as a nation. Now go back and read the article:
http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20081031.html
Obama???
Before you cast that vote for Obama, take a minute and ask yourself if you really want what you are going to get if you go in that direction? Look around and see what is happening before you cast that vote.
Taxes/Obama CHANGES definition of Wealthy
To JB1973, Since you do not mind paying higher taxes, go right ahead! But do not volunteer me to do the same. Obama will ruin this country with his socialist policies and peolpe like you will be the first to protest when you see the extent of his Government Control ideas.
So Much Misinformation, So Little Time
It is absolutely amazing to me how much misinformation one sees presented as fact in the comments, both here and elsewhere on the Web. Why is it that so many Americans are willing to swallow the distortions, insinuations, and outright lies being disseminated as the truth? Could it be that they are unwilling to accept any factual information that does not support their belief system and/or personal prejudices, only allowing through the information, no matter how absurd, that does not pose a threat to the fantasy world in which they live? To what degree has greed, fear, or ignorance clouded their reasoning? Sadly, much of the world, including those who wish us well, looks on in disbelief.
Below my statement are two
Below my statement are two of the oddest endorsements I have ever read. One touts the support received by someone historically associated with the a president who resigned from the office to avoid impeachment due to felony charges. A president that was a politcal hit man before he was elected. The second touts the cost of higher education as a politcal issue. It is. Gov. Kaine just reduced funding to state colleges by 5% as reported by this paper. The tuition will rise. You will pay it. The govenor just raised taxes on students while supporting new social programs. I read on other blogs about the Virginian Pilot's censorship of writers on this blog who support McCain. I would say the only way this false message could get across is if it is unopposed.
justthetruth and teaching how to fish
Your are on the money, but it is not just jobs, it is education. Our system is a mess, and we consistently score lower than just about everyone else in the world. Impacting the quality of education across the board so that low income areas have good quality schools. Recruiting good teachers and paying them well…teaching is arguably the most important profession we have. Making higher education affordable for those who qualify and are motivated to learn. Right now unless you are wealthy, athletic, a genius, take charity or go into debt, college is out of reach for most Americans. You can create jobs, but unless you have an educated workforce, you will have to import labor or do without. We tend to think of national security solely in terms of soldier, missiles and tanks. That is necessary, of course, but national security is also dependent upon a healthy, well educated and properous middle class, the backbone of our country.
john dean
As White House Counsel, he became deeply involved in events leading up to the Watergate burglaries and the subsequent Watergate scandal cover up, even referred to as "master manipulator of the cover up" by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).[1] He was convicted of multiple felonies as a result of Watergate, and went on to become a key witness for the prosecution, resulting in a reduction of his time in jail.
Oh yeah...let's all listen to him...I'm sure he has no chip on his shoulder.
Radtown; I really Hope
Submitted by Radtown on Sun, 11/02/2008 at 6:51 pm.
As a college student, most people would probably assume I am voting for Obama; this is not the case. The way I see it, Obama is completely removing the incentive for people to work hard and strive for success by "re-distributing the wealth." It's like he is brainwashing kids to believe they will never have the potential to make $250,000, therefore, they should vote for him because he will re-distribute every hard working person's money to them. Lets give money to everything with a pulse. Nice.
*Praying to Self* Please let this individual be a merger "freshman" in college with this type of rationalization......Amen
John Dean Speaks Out on Authoritarian Danger
John Dean, one time counsel to President Nixon sums it up best in a great article: http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20081031.html
"If Obama is rejected on November 4th for another authoritarian conservative like McCain, I must ask if Americans are sufficiently intelligent to competently govern themselves. I can understand authoritarian conservatives voting for McCain, for they know no better. It is well-understood that most everyone votes with his or her heart, not his or her head. Polls show that 81 percent of Americans "feel" (in their hearts and their heads) that our country is going the wrong way. How could anyone with such thoughts and feelings vote for more authoritarian conservatism, which has done so much to take the nation in the wrong direction?"
An outside perpective
hi guys i just wanted to say wow you guys are funny.I am from Australia and there was a poll recently that found that 73% of us would vote for Obama, it is a no brainer to us and you will find the rest of the world feels the same.I mean you started a war that killed 1 million people and then you re-elected G.W Bush.Your country has become with all respect a bit of a joke.I mean us aussies make jokes about it all the time and it's because it's so bad that we would otherwise cry at how the country that is the superpower and in a way leads the world is stuffing it all up for everyone,we supported the war and people hate it here to but we are your friends so we went our old P.M was good friends with bush needless to say he is not the head of gov. anymore.
Turns out that Obama’s
Turns out that Obama’s “bankrupting coal” comments are another Republican fake, like Joe The Plumber.
ONE DAY before the election these allegations come out in critical swing states, that also just happen to be coal states? Funny how the United Mineworkers in West Virginia are endorsing Obama.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/sso_detail?blogid=14&entry_id=32228
“The Republican National Committee and apparently even GOP VP candidate Sarah Palin fell for completely fabricated news from a shady website called Newsbusters today suggesting the San Francisco Chronicle has ''hidden'' audio with Sen. Barack Obama regarding his statements on coal.
The entire interview has been in the public domain, available on line to the public -- and to the McCain campaign -- since early January. Listen: http://cdn.sfgate.com/blogs/sounds/sfgate/chroncast/2008/01/17/20080117-obama-interview.mp3
Teach a man to fish.
I was brought up on the belief that is you give a man a fish he will eat for a day, but teach a man to fish he will eat for life. This redistribution of funds is just a hand out. What's it going to do to help me feed my family for life, for the long term? The US has hit record numbers of unemployment, let's put someone in office that will teach these US citizens "how to fish" and not just give hand outs. That means create commerce, jobs, etc.. I don’t want just a meal, I want a long term “Stable” job. I honestly don’t see that with Obama with him wanting to tax my boss to death.
Just my opinion that the constitution says I can express.
cont'd
Lots of promises, but nothing specific about how he plans to accomplish ANY of it. Typical liberal approach. If he's elected, in 2 years we will be hearing how we can't accomplish his goals because of the Republicans in Congress (who are not in charge) and because the Bush administration made such a mess, instead of the truth: They already know he can't keep these promises.
re: r.j.
Do you think the liberals have done their duty to support President Bush since 2001? From not meeting with his transition team, to taking the W's off the White House computer keyboards, there has been NOTHING from the left at any time in the time he's been in office that was honorable, patriotic. And you are correct, the liberals HAVE shown their "true" colors.
To Vabeach747
You always repeat the same old lame information. John McCain corrected the elderly citizen at a town hall meeting when she said Obama was an Arab. He said no ma'am. He is an American citizen and a good family man whom he differed with on policy issues but had a great deal of respect for. I would love to know your educational background or did you go past high school? I respect your right to vote for Mr. McCain, but quit trying to slander a good decent American citizen that just may be your next President. McCain wants to privatize your social security.
You will be in the same boat as the big wall street fat cats that we taxpayers had to bail out and they still walk away with million dollar bonuses. If McCain had his wish, corporations woukd make more and get more tax breaks and the hardworking middle class get nothing. I am voting for Obama and we will see a slight tax increase because we earn over $250,000 per year. We have no problem with it at all. You, on the other hand probably will benefit and see a tax decrease. Give it back!