WASHINGTON
If Larry Sabato picked stocks the way he picks elections, the University of Virginia political scientist could give Warren Buffett a run for his money.
The Crystal Ball, the political forecasting Web site he runs, ended the 2008 political season with a near-perfect record.
It exactly forecast the number of electoral votes (364) won by Barack Obama and came close on Democratic gains in Senate, House and gubernatorial races. By Friday, Democrats had gained six Senate seats, with two still in doubt; the Crystal Ball predicted five to seven. In the House, Democrats gained 20-23 seats, depending on final counts; Crystal Ball forecast 26.
Sabato, a Norfolk native who has been an oft-quoted analysts for many years, has picked winners since 1978. The Virginian-Pilot gave him a page and a half for forecasting that year and he scored about 80 percent, he said.
"I finally found something I was good at," he joked, so he kept doing it.
To make the forecasts, he draws on polls, past results, economic data and political contacts. Interns at U.Va.'s Center for Politics help with research. Interns Paul Wiley and Isaac Wood were key to this year's success, Sabato said.
Dale Eisman, (703) 913-9872, dale.eisman@pilotonline.com
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well david
It's like this. It's interesting you should single me out when there are many others who post more often than I do, but thanks for point out my freedom of speech. Do I hve a life? Yes a very busy one, but thanks for asking.
Gertz
Gertz, I occasionally make a comment on this blog, but you write 2, 3, or 4 comments on almost everyone. Don't you have a life? Good grief.
Leftist
I went to UVA and Sabato is nothing but a leftist hack, pushing a socialist agenda.
so what
"He can chose to support whomever he wants, but when you listen to his 'stats' just be aware that he is for the Democrats each and every time."
So what? What's wrong with him being a Democrat?
What I constantly read from you is complainig and whinning all about nothing.
He isn't a closet liberal
he is an OUT AND OUT liberal.....he may be good at what he does, but he was definitely biased during the Allen/Webb campaign. He can chose to support whomever he wants, but when you listen to his 'stats' just be aware that he is for the Democrats each and every time.
Get real
Sabato has long been a source of political knowledge for years. From everything I've read about his thoughts (I am from Charlottevsille), he actually tends to lean to the right more than anything else. BUT, he is able to separate his thoughts from what he sees going on in the world. Just because he made a prediction that you don't like does not mean he is biased in the other direction. You just don't like what happened, and that's it. It doesn't mean there's a vast conspiracy out there. Many of us are just tired of name calling and extreme right wing philosophies. Right now, as I see it, the Republican playbook=Democrats are socialists who like high taxes, hate guns and love having abortions, want to take your money, and cannot be trusted. YAWN.
Say What
What difference does it make where his politics lies? He is not campaigning, he is prognisticating and doing a good job of it. What does partiality have to do with it? Do you really think that if he says Drake is going to beat Nye that Drake would automatically get re-elected? Come on get real. Sabato is asked what his research shows and how after reviewing that research he makes perdictions. Obviously, he predicted Obama's landslide electoral vote win. I sincerely doubt that his so-called biased tentacles reached clear across the country. He's good at what he does and that comes from a lot of hard work.
He also picked Drake to beat Nye.
He's a closet liberal whose cover was blown during the Allen/Webb campaign. He can no longer be considered an impartial source. Take what he says with that bias in mind. The news networks need to drop him as an "expert" now that we know his true allegiance.