EPA study warns of rising seas along Virginia coast

After more than three years of study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a report Friday on the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on Virginia and the rest of the mid-Atlantic.

The conclusions: not very good.

Using conservative estimates, the EPA says the eight-state region from New York to North Carolina is an area that "will likely see the greatest impacts due to rising waters, coastal storms, and a high concentration of population along the coastline," according to an agency summary.

The report finds that low-lying areas in Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Norfolk and on the Peninsula, where port terminals, railroads, sewage plants and military bases can be found, face real threats from rising seas.

The 786-page document also describes Virginia's Eastern Shore as "uniquely vulnerable," especially its vast salt marshes and barrier islands, which are key habitat for fish, shellfish, migratory birds and other wildlife.

Previous studies have painted similar scenarios in recent years, but the report Friday represents the federal government's official word on global warming and its possible consequences to the Chesapeake Bay and other Virginia ecosystems.

"It's an important document, no doubt," said Carl Hershner, the sole Virginia scientist who worked on the project and a wetlands expert at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.

However, Hershner said he was "disappointed and a little frustrated" that the final EPA report did not contain specific data and mapping that appeared in earlier drafts and depict a much fiercer threat.

Furthermore, because the research effort took so long, he said, some estimates about the pace and extent of sea-level rise and the potential effects are dated and "probably underestimated, at best."

The report was authored by the EPA, the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and includes scientific research compiled since 2005 from myriad state, federal and international sources.

It finds that global warming is real and that sea levels are rising faster - and can be expected to keep rising faster - because of human activity and the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and gas.

"Increasing atmospheric concentrations, primarily from human contributions, are very likely warming the atmosphere and oceans," the report says.

The report concludes that sea levels rose globally about 1.7 millimeters per year through the 20th century - on the heels of a period of little change during the previous 2,000 years, back to the last Ice Age.

"The rate has increased over natural rise due to burning of fossil fuels," according to the report.

The mid-Atlantic has seen an even quicker rise, the study says, because sections of the coast - especially in Virginia - are physically sinking, a process called subsidence.

The authors urge state and local officials to change their mind-set about global warming and start planning for rising sea levels today.

"Most coastal regions are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and that shorelines are static and can be fixed in place," the report reads.

"The new reality of sea-level rise due to climate change," it continues, " requires new considerations in managing areas to protect resources and reduce risk to humans."

Scott Harper, (757) 446-2340, scott.harper@pilotonline.com