Across Virginia and the country, statistics indicate the crumbling economy is likely to spark growth in at least one arena during the new year: the national crime rate.
A jump in property crimes seems to occur when unemployment or poverty rates increase, according to a statewide study by Debbie Roberts, a research data programmer and analyst for the Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services.
Violent and drug-related crimes also may escalate in times of recession, Roberts said, but less so than property crimes, including burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft, according to her recent report covering a 28-year period.
Roberts said preliminary data for 2008 show a slight increase in property crimes from January through September versus the same period in 2007.
"There's no way to prove that one thing causes another," she said, "but they do tend to follow one another."
How quickly they follow each other depends on several factors, including police department size and residents' participation in social programs, said Richard Rosenfeld, professor of criminology at the University of Missouri in St. Louis. "You'll see increases happen in some areas, but not across the board."
That's true in Hampton Roads where, according to Virginia State Police statistics, property crime rates rose the year after the 2001 recession and then fell in 2003.
During the 1990s recession - July 1990 to March 1991 - crime rate patterns were varied in South Hampton Roads.
In Chesapeake, both violent and property crimes increased in 1990 and 1991; violent crimes declined in 1992, and property crimes the year after. In Norfolk, both violent and property crimes increased in 1990, but while violent crime continued to increase until 1992, property crimes began to drop in 1991.
Portsmouth, Virginia Beach and Suffolk followed the state trend that Roberts reported, showing increases in property crimes in 1990 and 1991, followed by drops in 1992. Violent crimes did not show the same spike during the recession.
"There is always some lag between the increases," Rosenfeld said.
A higher crime rate can't be attributed only to crimes by people who have fallen on hard times, said Robert McCrie, a professor of protection management at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.
"Often when times are tenuous, there might be a tendency to decrease controls," he said.
Police departments might trim patrols to save on fuel costs or overtime, or store owners might eliminate security guard jobs or skip buying surveillance cameras because they need to save money during a recession.
McCrie said crime escalated in cities in the 1960s and 1970s because police were underfunded. In New York City, he said, Mayor David Dinkins appealed for greater police funding. Combined with changes in enforcement Mayor Rudy Giuliani made later, the tide changed in the city.
A recent report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors shows violence and drug-related crimes also typically go up nationwide during economic recessions - although violent crimes in Virginia "may increase to a lesser degree," according to Roberts' report. Violent crimes include murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.
Rosenfeld and McCrie pointed to the Great Depression as a major anomaly in the recession-crime correlation.
From 1930 to 1932, in the early years of the Great Depression and nearing the end of Prohibition, a spike in crime swept the country because of turf battles between bootleggers and disorderly conduct among their customers, McCrie said.
With the end of Prohibition in 1933, however, crime rates began to drop. The Great Depression would not end until the United States entered World War II, but there was a significant drop in property crimes.
More people were spending time at home, making it more difficult for people to commit burglaries, McCrie said of that era.
McCrie and Rosenfeld also suggested social programs, introduced by President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Depression, were successful in keeping crime rates from escalating.
"The public works programs were putting young men to work," he said. "It provides a lesson for how we might address the current economic downturn."
Lauren King, (757) 446-2309, lauren.king@pilotonline.com
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ronniew92627
"Oh don't worry Liberals your Socalist savior is here! He will end all your suffering in ALL 57 STATES Jan 20th"
We know, that's why we elected him, but thanks for the reminder.
Pilot
you deserve to go out of business like the rest! Its not new if things may or are likely to happen example Across Virginia and the country, statistics indicate the crumbling economy is likely to spark growth in at least one arena during the new year: the national crime rate"..... Oh don't worry Liberals your Socalist savior is here! He will end all your suffering in ALL 57 STATES Jan 20th
Durring a recession law
Durring a recession law abiding citizens buy more ammo and exercise their constitutional right to bear arms.
what's being overlooked
What's being overlooked is the stupid president we had for the past 8 years who wanted to constantly remind us that the economy is "great". After 911 we told us to go shopping, and that's what people did. The only problem was neither they nor he had sense enough to stop. How much has the Iraq war costs us so far?
No Kidding...It Will Get Worse
Better extend those Unemployment Benefits VEC.
This is a Great Reporter!
Duh!! Ya think?
Thanks to the last however many years
of the media spreading the message that the filthy rich are not to be trusted and are not paying their fair share, just wonder how many folks are going to target these "filthy rich" and when. After all, the media and the last year and a half worth of political campaigning "proved" this point.
Love the last line, Paraphrased only the government can now save us from certian destruction. All bow and hope the superior thinking politicians (but only one side of the isle) steps up and fixes this problem.
Be prepaired for pain folks, lots of pain, but as my rep stated, he intends to spread that pain over everyone, to include them [filthy] rich people [who caused the poor people this anquish you have now]. Class envy and class seperation is going to get really messy..... LET THEM EAT CAKE! will be spoken out of Congress.
Interesting What Gets Printed in the Pilot
It’s interesting what government research focuses on and what findings get printed in the Virginian-Pilot. As one commenter indicates it shouldn’t be a terrific surprise that crime rates go up when the economy goes down. But other situations and findings are ignored. For example, I worked for a consulting firm in northern Virginia some years ago that conducted a federal, research project on the relationship between police taking illegal drugs off the street and the violent crime rate. The major finding was that greater police success resulted in more violent crime. Reducing drugs on the street drives the price up and also drives up the violent crime rate; addicts must have the same amount of drugs to support their habit regardless of price and they commit more violent crimes to get more money for drugs. A few years ago Norfolk participated in an extensive drug enforcement effort with the federal government, arresting many dealers and suppliers. Sure enough, the violent crime rate went up, but there was no state research study to replicate the federal study done in northern Virginia and no coverage in the Pilot about the situation.
JP hit the nail on the head....
It amazes me that people are actually paid to uncover the obvious. Most property crimes are often crimes of neccessity. People steal because they need money. When the economy is down, more people are pushed to steal for money......wow, what a coincidence....
Nothing new here.
The old addage of "figures dont lie -- liars figure" sure applies here. The issue here is that you have about fifteen to twenty percent of the population committing about eighty percent of the crime. Walk into ANY court room and you will see first hand that about eighty percent of the offenders are black. It has nothing to do with hard times. It's the social failure of those individuals. The mentality seems to be it's easier to do whatever we please thats easy for us than to obey the rules.
The black community has to stand up and acknowlege this fact and act to reverse reverse this trend. Before you start screaming 'Racist" you have no idea what race I am. The facts are what they are!
Wow
I wonder if next they're going to spend a ton of money to determine if there's a correlation between an increase in use of heating oil and the onset of cold weather. Heaven forbid that situation would exist and we couldn't figure it out for ourselves.
More research
Fire is hot
Ice is cold
Water is wet
Methinks The Pilot has been affected by a mental recession!
DUH!
"A jump in property crimes seems to occur when unemployment or poverty rates increase." Gee! Whodathunkit? I mean, who would have ever thought that when times get tough and people lose their jobs, some turn to crime to continue to live? I wonder how many hours of research and how much taxpayer money was spent ferreting out this gem of a deduction by this research data programmer and analyst for the Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services? Thank God we have these folks on the state payroll to uncover facts like this!
Who knew?
"Statistics point to increase in crime during recessions"
Do ya think?? If you gotta eat then you are probably going do whatever you have to do.