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Dustin Long

From Daytona to California, Dustin Long covers the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Read all of his stories on PilotOnline.com's Auto Racing channel. He also writes a regular column for SportsIllustrated.com. Follow him on Twitter.

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■ 23 February 2009 | 10:21 PM

Determining who will miss the Chase

The past four years _ on average _ only 7 of the top 10 finishers in the first California race went on to make the Chase.

 

If history holds true, then only 7 of Sunday’s top 10 finishers will make the Chase. Yet, figuring out who will be left out of title contention doesn’t seem easy when you consider who finished in the top 10.

 

# 5 are former champions: Race winner Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch.

 

# 2 have finished second in the Chase since its inception: Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle

 

# And the remaining three drivers in the top 10 were: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers.

 

So, which 3 among those 10 do you think won’t make the Chase?

 

Go here for some clues.

 

Otherwise, who do you think are the 3 most likely to miss the Chase and why?

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