Watch where you step

The veiled threats and open taunts bandied around at last weekend's debate in Williamsburg have exacerbated Democrats' anxieties that their three gubernatorial candidates will not just go negative, but go nuclear in the final weeks of the primary campaign.

Brian Moran cryptically informed Terry McAuliffe, "I've Googled you and some things come up." Moran went crimson and McAuliffe bug-eyed when state Sen. Creigh Deeds impishly tried to bait the two into a confrontation over Moran's campaign donors.

All three campaigns are bracing for the Big Nasty in the final countdown to the June 9 primary, and no one can be quite sure who'll be the perp and who'll be the victim.

There's plenty of fodder available if they choose to use it.

McAuliffe's habit of mingling political fundraising with private business deals has generated a wealth of bad press over the years. He pushed for aggressive schmoozing of donors at White House coffees and lunches during the Clinton administration. He made a fortune investing in the disgraced telecommunications firm Global Crossings. Three company officials paid fines in 2005 to settle a federal investigation into accounting practices leading up to the firm's bankruptcy. McAuliffe was never implicated.

Moran has drawn criticism himself by accepting donations from defense contractors with a financial interest in budget items controlled by a congressional subcommittee that includes his brother, U.S. Rep. James Moran. The New York Times reported that the panel's chairman, U.S. Rep. John Murtha, joined the Moran brothers at a recent fundraiser for the gubernatorial campaign that attracted several military contractors.

Two months ago, all bets were on Moran to go on the attack after he lit into McAuliffe at a party fundraiser normally reserved for touchy-feely pep talks. After years of groundwork to build his support base, Moran didn't try to hide his resentment when McAuliffe leaped into the race.

But McAuliffe hasn't managed to nudge Moran from his narrow lead in the polls despite raising $5 million, and the Macker's negatives have been inching up. Further, his financial advantage has already allowed him to air two television commercials, reducing his risk if he throws a hit piece into the mix. Moran's and Deeds' more limited resources mean they'll likely get a single ad buy this spring at most. That restriction may argue for them to go with more traditional issue ads, rather than personal attacks.

Going nuclear hasn't proven to be an effective tactic for Virginia politicians in recent years. Republican Jerry Kilgore lost after airing an ad suggesting that Democrat Tim Kaine would have opposed the death penalty for Adolf Hitler.

A closer analogy can be made with the 1997 GOP attorney general primary. Virginia Beach's Ken Stolle started as the front-runner that year but began to slip after attorney Gilbert Davis pumped $1.2 million of his personal fortune into his campaign.

Five days before the primary, Stolle released an ad showing video of Davis, whiskey glass in hand, mumbling to a former female client about her interest in posing nude for Playboy magazine.

Stolle and Davis came in third and fourth in the primary, handing the victory to Mark Earley and giving a fellow named Jerry Kilgore a strong second-place finish that helped him get the nomination four years later.

It's not Stolle's job to give this year's crop of Democrats advice on how to run their campaigns, but he'll share with any candidate, regardless of party, the lesson he learned 12 years ago.

"Never, never go nuclear because that's what people remember, and not what you were campaigning on," he said in a recent interview. "There are many things I'm proud of in my political career and there are a few things I'm ashamed of, and this is at the top of the list."

Christina Nuckols is an editorial writer for The Virginian-Pilot.

E-mail her at christina.nuckols@pilotonline.com.