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Pilot on Politics

What’s happening in the world of politics and lawmaking in Richmond, Hampton Roads and around Virginia? Our Pilot on Politics reporters share tips, tidbits and stories here on our 2009 Pilot on Politics blog. What do you know? Post your comments.

Deeds continues to gain in poll

State Sen. Creigh Deeds appears to be further separating himself from the other two contenders in the June 9 Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released two days before the election.

A Democrat from rural Bath County, Deeds now holds a double-digit lead (40 percent) over rivals Terry McAuliffe (26 percent) and Brian Moran (24 percent) for the party nomination.

The poll results follow a recent trend that has shown Deeds surging to the lead of the pack just weeks after earlier polls listed him third in the field.

Deeds current lead is beyond the poll's 3 percent margin of error. Conducted June 6-7, the automated telephone poll surveyed 1,082 likely primary voters.

A pollster at the firm attributed Deeds' late charge to several factors, including: A recent Washington Post endorsement which helped solidify his support in vote-rich Northern Virginia (home to McAuliffe and Moran), and undecided voters breaking for Deeds in the final days of the contest.

Still, ten percent of voters remain unsure who they will support, according to the poll, which gave Deeds leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, where McAuliffe is ahead.

"We continue to build momentum all across the Commonwealth," Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey wrote in an e-mail after the poll's release. "We're fighting for every vote across Virginia."

The poll results also gave Jody Wagner a statistically significant lead (41 percent) over Mike Signer (12 percent) in the race for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, though the poll indicates 42 percent of likely voters in that contest remain undecided.

UPDATE: A just released SurveyUSA poll also shows Deeds with a sizable lead (42 percent) over McAuliffe (30 percent) and Moran (21 percent), with 7 percent undecided.

Commentary attached to that poll suggests that Deeds' key to victory is tied to turnout among independents -- he is even with McAuliffe among likely Democratic voters.

SurveyUSA contacted 2,000 Virginians June 5-7 for the poll, which has a 4.3 percent margin of error.

-- Julian Walker

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