Scientists are closely watching unusually high tides along the entire East Coast, especially in mid-Atlantic states including Virginia, where average daily levels are running between 6 inches and 2 feet above predicted norms.
One veteran researcher at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, John Boon, said he suspects the trend could be the beginning of a decade-long phenomenon of high water caused by an El Niño-like effect in the Atlantic.
“It’s possible we’re entering a new cycle,” he said this week.
Boon, a professor emeritus of marine science who has studied tides most of his career, described how Atlantic wind patterns and currents can subtly shift, often without explanation. The shift, in turn, pushes more water onto East Coast beaches, marshes and coastline through higher tides.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has received many calls in recent weeks from concerned residents, waterfront homeowners and scientists along the East Coast, said Michael Szabados, an official with the agency.
Likewise, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, based in Gloucester Point, has fielded phone calls and e-mails from anxious residents and others who rely on the ebb and flow of daily tides, officials said.
Boon said the practical effects of the trend can be both good and bad – good for people who normally have trouble getting their boats out beyond local sandbars and mud flats; bad if the region were to be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane. Storm surge already is a major threat in hurricanes, especially in low-lying Hampton Roads. But if water is running unusually high from an ocean anomaly, Boon said, “you face a double-threat of significant flooding.”
The extreme tides, he and other scientists said, have occurred before and can last, on and off, for years at a time before suddenly changing back to normal.
“There’s no scientific debate that these anomalous cycles happen,” Boon said. “It’s what causes them that’s debated.”
NOAA noticed the trend taking off in early June, affecting states from Maine to Florida. In Baltimore in mid-June, for example, the agency documented tides 2 feet above predicted levels.
The events are continuing, though they have slightly subsided in recent days, said Szabados, who is director of NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, based in Silver Spring, Md.
“It’s more intense than usual and is happening at a time of year when we don’t usually see such variability,” Szabados said Thursday. “We’re definitely interested and definitely investigating it.”
NOAA posted an alert about the trend on July 2 on its Web site, www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, and continues to update it, Szabados said.
El Niño occurs every seven or eight years on average, affecting weather patterns along the Pacific Ocean.
Similarly on the Atlantic, quirky shifts in atmospheric pressure and winds, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, contribute to weather variability – and might be at play now, said Larry Atkinson, an oceanographer at Old Dominion University in Norfolk.
Atkinson said that what Hampton Roads is experiencing now will likely become the norm in 30 or 40 years due to sea level rise associated with the slow warming of ocean temperatures.
“This is a little taste of the future,” he said. “It basically exposes our vulnerabilities to high water.”
Atkinson said people who live or work away from local creeks and rivers might not notice the change. But “ship captains can tell, and the insurance companies know what is going on,” he said.
Scientists do not think the unusually high tides are due to sea level rise because, as Szabados explained, “these have happened suddenly, not slowly over time.”
Scott Harper, (757) 446-2340, scott.harper@pilotonline.com
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More info on tides etc.
If interested in sea level rise and the decadal changes in the North Atlantic here are some links:
Sea Level Rise at Sewells Point for an example of the longer term trend
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8638610
As mentioned elsewhere the recent observed, predicted and differences from predicted sea level are at
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/station_retrieve.shtml?type=Tide%20Data&sort=A.NAME&state=&id1=&id2=&id3=&id4=&id5=&id6=&id7=&id8=&id8=&id9=&id10=
For Sewells point specifically go to
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8638610%20Sewells%20Point,%20VA&type=Tide%20Data
For info on climate to to http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
and for specific info on the North Atlantic Oscillation go to
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
and of course the source of all knowledge Wikipedia on NAO
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_atlantic_oscillation
If Exxon Mobil Corp could profit by selling renewable energy...
...they would have been doing it FOR DECADES now. It's obvious the "deniers" are NOT the people in denial in this debate.
That actually brings up an interesting..
point. When one mentions an oil company, I think in terms of infrastructure, in this case service stations around the nation to supply fuel to cars and trucks. Personal transportation needs will not be going away anytime soon, and vehicles making long trips will still need a fuel source. I have no idea what that source may end up being, but it is reasonable to think that the present companies that have the infrastructure in place will thus be positioned to be part of that industry.
Your point about 'profitting if they could' may be the most instructive of all. Others would no doubt have been selling RE if they too could, or could have, realized a profit.
Just a thought..
natural cycles
The tide is high, the tide is low. It gets hot, it gets cold. It rains, there's a drought. Ice ages come, ice ages go. I certainly do not want anyone to think I promote pollution or wasting of our precious natural resources. But follow the money folks. Follow it right out of your pocket. There are folks setting themselves up to benefit financially from this global warming (climate change) thing. My Virginia power rep tells me that if they pass cap and trade (tax), electric rates will go up 30 - 50%. That's ONLY your power. Now factor that rate increase into EVERYTHING you buy.
Devil's Advocate
Situation 1: Keep using limited fossil fuels which require even more fossil fuels (oil) to extract that coal, uranium, or natural gas. Which keeps demand for crude high and eventually consuming more oil than world produces.
Situation 2: Use renewable energy which reduces our need to extract while leading to an excess supply of fossil fuels maintaining lower costs while creating new jobs to curtail worse economy.
According to CIA proven reserves of oil.. even if we were to cut fuel consumption by 1/3 (which is impossible) we would run out of oil within 120 years. I know their are other sources such as off-shore drilling.. Yet, they cost too much at current means to even be practical. Then you have the risk of Hurricane's displacing your rig. Katrina sent one rig into a bridge.. I bet AIG covered it while trying to deny home owners.
So it's El-Nino...
or something similar? Will proposals be put forth to fundamentally alter how we do things in order to 'compensate' for it's effects? Will we ask other nations to do so as well, or will we do it regardless?
Who can forget? Apparently lots of misinformed people...
...who don't know or care to ignore that the Elizabeth River and much of the Chesapeake Bay froze completely and the Atlantic Ocean (yes, the ocean) froze all the way to the forty fathom line during the winter of 1779-1780. Ice piled some twenty feet high on the Atlantic seaboard and didn't melt until May 1780. The Elizabeth River froze solid all the way to Lambert's Point during the winter of 1917-1918--there are pictures of people driving across the river from Norfolk to Portsmouth. The BiCentennial Winter of January 1977 was the COLDEST recorded winter on the East Coast since the Nation was founded--the Potomac River was frozen so solid people were walking and skating across it. Major winter storms in Virginia are as recent as 2003, 2004 and 2006. Global warming is junk science at best, an attack on our prosperity, comfort and security at worst.
Science...not your opinion
Most of the posters here do not believe in science. That's ok.
CFC's have been putting a hole in the Ozone layer since the '50s. It was observed by satellites in space starting in the '70s. (I know, some people don't believe in satellites.) Then, international laws were made to stop sulfuric emissions. It cut down on the speed of the Ozone layer wasting. Hence, science identifying a problem and pushing the polluters to a solution.
Now for climate change. Ever heard of the industrial revolution?
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting faster and faster.
Acidification of oceans imperiling coral reefs and killing marine life.
When you go from (stay with me here) from 280 parts per million of CO2 in 1750 to 384 parts per million today, you are left with one scientific conclusion: Fossil fuels and emission of carbon along with deforestation is changing the atmosphere. Science, not dogma.
Do we have any open minds out there?
It is hard to have an open mind on this subject.
I am an avid recycler (I even recycle sticky notes at work) and would stop my car to go back and pick something up if it fell out the window. Taking care of the Earth I feel is our responsibility. However, when all the alarmists and extremeists are taken into consideration I block out all they have to say. As a very cold natured person, I can well remember the warnings in the late 70s about the sun burning out. I was a young teenager and very scared by the threats. Al Gore and his hypocrisy on the subject of carbon has finished me off. If cap and trade passes and people can't afford to control their climate the masses will begin to see what is going on there will be an awakening then to the country at large. Then people will be so angry that reasonable efforts to aid the environment will not be accepted either.
Not Sulfuric
"Then, international laws were made to stop sulfuric emissions."
Ah, no. Allegedly, the Ozone hole (discovered in 1985) is starting to heal because CFC's (chloroflorocarbons) in refrigerants and aerosol propellants have been banned in most countries.
How open is yours?
55 million years ago, there were 1700 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.
It was quite warm.
Yet the Earth cooled, and eventually, we slipped into an ice age.
How?
CO2 is not the determinant of the Earth's temperature. It is an indicator.
so now its climate change?
A week ago it was global warming. 2 decades ago it was global cooling. Its weather and as long as I have been alive it hasn't stayed the same. Its kind of funny I haven't heard the parable of chicken little recited in over 20 years. Maybe it should be told again. I have become a little suspicious about the fact that around july 4th it gets hot and it always somehow seems colder around christmas. Then I read a book and discovered that even the ancents noticed this phenomenon. They even had a name for it its called seasons and by definition that is climate change...
What no mention of global warming
Amazed that the article did not mention the hoax of man-made global warming as the culprit for this tidal change. I am sure that some posters will jump on that tired old bandwagon.
Tides
Tides are like any other natural event. Just because you have a higher than normal tides for a while, do git all panicky. You have colder winters from time to time, hotter summers from time to time, wetter and dryers years.....blah blah blah. IT'S ALL NORMAL.
Lets say June for example has an average temp of 85 degrees, and has lets say 5 inches of rain, dont go acting like a chicken with its head cut off becuase this years average lets say is 83 degrees and you got 8 inches of rain, and run around and blame it on global warming or the ice age is coming back. It's all for the most part and AVERAGE.
HamptonRoads.com Should Publish Tide Report on Weather Page
In this Watertown that we live in, why won't this website publish the tide report in the local city weather reports? Seems that it's buried in the Fishing forecast! Or, perhaps I'm missing the point that is provided in the premium pilotonline.com? I'm confused, but this should be a public service and NOAA should freely feed it to HamptonRoads.com since the Public's tax dollars already pays for NOAA's tidal tracking.
In the tidal mud-flats of the Southern Branch of the Elizabeth River, my neighbors and I have observed that low tide is never getting "mud-flat" low. Additionally, we collectively have noticed that the tide is higher than normal and this can be readily seen by looking at the marine debris line in our yards and docks left from the out-going high tide.
It's interesting that this phenomena is being reported as another normal "cycle." Anyone care to discuss the coldest summer on record in many places of the US? Is this the Climate Change that we still keep debating that it's not happening, but appears to be right before our eyes?
warming trend
Earth is coming out of a glacial period. When it begins cooling again, if humans exist, there will be much debate on the perils of global cooling.
There was already debate on global cooling.
In the mid-seventies the doomsayers said the earth was experiencing "GLOBAL COOLING" and we were all going to die because the climate in the farmlands of the US was going to be too cold to grow food. Billions of our tax dollars were wasted and several con-artist (think Al Gore) were making millions of dollars on the scare tactics. As we now know for certain, it was a bunch of bunk spewed by alleged scientist that we all know can make any hypothesis seem factual. Of course just like now, the blame for the climate change was cast to mankind's existence. The holes in the ozone layers were supposedly caused by the fluorocarbons we used in spray cans and freon. After wasting trillions of dollars we know now that they were wrong. Of course that was a non-story in the press. The earth will continue having it's normal climate changes and we'll continue to have the Al Gore's of the world that will try to scare people into thinking the world is coming to an end if we don't pay their company's billions of dollars and live like cavemen while they enjoy the high life and create a huge "carbon foot-print". What a joke.
Broken Link to tides and currents
Correct link is
http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/