New poll: McDonnell 49, Deeds 43

Republican Bob McDonnell has opened a six-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for governor, according to a survey of likely November voters released today.

The Public Policy Polling analysis finds McDonnell ahead of Deeds 49-43 percent, within the poll's 4 percent margin of error.

Polls, and particularly those conducted early in a campaign, are snapshots of an electorate at a given moment in time; an educated guess about the outcome of an election.

This poll comes four months before the Nov. 3 election to pick the next occupant of the Governor's Mansion in Richmond.

And it bears encouraging news for the candidates, each pf whom received solid favorable ratings from respondents.

For the moment, the poll restores the Republican to favored candidate status in the race.

Deeds experienced a polling bounce after winning the June 9 Democratic primary over two other candidates, yet polls throughout the spring showed McDonnell with leads over all three Democrats in hypothetical general election match-ups.

McDonnell campaign strategist Tucker Martin said the poll shows "Virginia voters responding very positively to Bob McDonnell's campaign to bring new jobs and more opportunities to every region of Virginia. There is growing momentum behind our issue-focused positive campaign."

Deeds spokesman Jared Leopold said voters want a candidate "who has the best solutions to the challenges that Virginia faces. And we feel very strongly that Creigh Deeds has been on the side of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine in moving Virginia forward (PAC plug alert) while Bob McDonnell has been on the side of moving Virginia backward. As this campaign plays out, we expect Virginians to hear more about Creigh Deeds and we expect them to like what they're hearing."

The poll surveyed 617 likely voters June 3-July 2. Democrats are quick to note that it was performed while McDonnell aired television commercials around the state (Deeds has not paid for television ads since the primary election ended).

The PPP findings also indicate that McDonnell's six-point lead is identical to one Republican Jerry Kilgore held over Kaine, a Democrat, at this stage of the 2005 gubernatorial campaign (Kaine went on to win the race, a point emphasized by Democrats).

Public Policy Polling is a Democrat-affiliated outfit based in North Carolina, noted one Republican who rejects the firm's analysis of parallels between polling of Kilgore's 2005 race and McDonnell's 2009 contest.

Like McDonnell, the two other GOP candidates for statewide office fared better than their Democratic rivals in the poll.

Incumbent Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling leads former state finance secretary Jody Wagner 46-40 percent in the race for lieutenant governor; and Republican state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli leads Democratic state Del. Steve Shannon (both from Fairfax County) 45-38 percent in the attorney general's race.

-- Julian Walker

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