Post-election rush on guns spawns shortages of bullets

In the world's most heavily armed nation, bullets are in short supply.

Gun shops have empty shelves. Stampedes mark the opening of gun shows. Rising prices are forcing police to bust their budgets. Some have cut back on shooting practice.

The ammo industry says factories are running wide open but simply can't keep up with a demand - particularly for handgun calibers - that spiked with the November elections, and just kept going.

Robert House, owner of Classic Firearms in Virginia Beach, has been selling guns and ammo in Hampton Roads for 30 years. From time to time, popular guns have been hard to keep in stock. But ammunition?

"I've never seen anything like this," House said. "There have been fistfights at gun shows over the last box of ammunition."

Rumors swirl about the shortage.

Yes, it's true that booming metal markets in China and India are consuming boatloads of brass, copper and lead.

No, it's not true that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are cutting into the civilian bullet supply. The Army says most of its small-arms ammo comes from a dedicated factory in Missouri.

Instead, blame politics, and the thoroughness of the Democratic victory in November. Gun owners have long viewed Democrats as enemies of the Second Amendment. With that party now in control of the White House and both branches of Congress: "People think they'd better buy while they can," said Ron Hess, a long time Norfolk gun shop owner. "Gun owners just figure that Democrats make screwed-up gun laws."

But those who study such things say the bullet shortage is a tangible sign of something much deeper - the wider-than-ever gulf that divides the inside of the winners' circle from the outside.

"Obama won the election because many moderate conservatives switched parties," said Robert Spitzer, the author of a book about politics and guns, and a political science professor at The State University of New York.

That defection, Spitzer said, distilled the remainder into an even "more conservative, homogenous base," Spitzer said. "A certain siege mentality sets in, and more than ever, it's 'us' against 'them.' "

One thing is certain: Like most shortages, this one is a self-perpetuating cycle. Initial demand thinned out supplies, which fueled panicked buying, which only worsened the shortage.

In the gun shops, time is now told in two different eras: "Before Obama" and "After Obama."

"He's been good for business," Hess said. "My sales are up 40 percent."

Bob's Gun Shop has been open in Norfolk for 64 years. Record days have taken place "After Obama." Firearm sales were a big part of that, owner Robert Marcus said, but the thirst for ammunition seems "insatiable."

Marcus is limiting his customers to two boxes at a time and has given up pestering his suppliers for more deliveries.

"After a while, you get tired of hearing 'no,' " he said. "We're just beginning to see ammunition we ordered in December."

Manufacturers say the problem is capacity. Factories, located mostly in the Midwest, are geared for a relatively predictable market. Expansion is costly, and the industry has seen bubbles before.

The last occurred in late 1999, when fears of Y2K chaos spurred a buying binge at gun stores. In 1994, the start of the 10-year-long Assault Weapons Ban sparked sales as well.

"So everybody in the industry is trying to figure out how temporary this is," said Curtis Shipley of Georgia Arms, a manufacturer west of Atlanta. "They're looking into their crystal balls, wondering, 'How much should I invest?' "

In the meantime, Shipley says: "I've got 15,000 orders I can't fill and a customer service nightmare."

Prices have doubled in some shops. At Hess' place, Ron Hess Gun & Tackle, a 50-round box of .380 ammunition costs $49.95.

"Before Obama," Hess says, "it was $24.95."

Hess says the higher prices are being passed down the supply chain from manufacturer to distributor to retailer. He says he can get any caliber his customers want, if they're willing to pay the cost.

"There's only a shortage if you want it at the old price," Hess said. "All it takes is money."

That's enough to inspire target shooters such as Ken Williams, an accountant from Suffolk, to scour the gun shops regularly. One visit to the range can easily eat up 100 rounds.

"I'll buy everything I can if I find a good deal," Williams said.

Police are feeling the pinch, too. In Virginia Beach, the budget for ammunition skyrocketed from around $200,000 last year to $500,000 for the fiscal year that just ended. In Portsmouth, the department has cut back on bullets traditionally issued to officers for extra practice on the firing range.

Norfolk police say they keep a two-year supply on hand, a policy that "is certainly paying dividends now," spokesman Chris Amos said. At Bob's Gun Shop, Marcus says he has fielded calls from the Fairfax sheriff's office and other agencies desperate for ammunition.

Political analyst Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, sees no rational reason for the run on ammo. Sabato says there are no signs from Washington that stricter gun laws are on the way.

"I follow Congress closely," Sabato said, "and I've seen no indication that this is true."

Sabato says there are plenty of Democrats from rural areas who fear they'd lose their seats if they voted for more gun laws.

Spitzer, the New York professor, says the new president isn't eager to challenge gun rights, either.

"The final irony of all this is that Obama's base is less than happy with him, too," Spitzer said. "He's been deliberately avoiding the gun issue. He's behaved a lot more like a centrist."

Spitzer says organizations such as the National Rifle Association, with 4 million-plus members, fed the ammo-

buying frenzy with a drumbeat of " 'they're-coming-for-your-guns' messages. They stoke fear for their own political reasons."

The gun industry, Spitzer said, reaps the benefits of increased sales.

The NRA denies such an agenda.

"I have heard some gun manufacturers calling the president their salesman of the year," NRA spokeswoman Alexa Fritts said. "But it's no joke that since the election, guns and ammo have been flying off the shelves. That's a direct result of a real fear. We know the record of some of the people in this administration, and gun owners are worried about their Second Amendment freedoms."

The NRA points to one bill making the rounds that seeks to license handgun owners. Talk of raising the excise tax on ammunition also has the organization on alert.

There are some signs that the ammunition shortage is easing. Summer's heat puts a damper on outdoor target shooting. Sales usually fall off this time of year. Calibers impossible to find just a few weeks ago are beginning to reappear.

Still, the industry predicts, it will be months before supply can fully cover demand. Under normal circumstances, ammunition is big business. Gun owners buy an estimated 9 billion bullets every year. Last year's sales hit $1.16 billion.

For now, though, the rush does seem to be slowing down a bit, according to House, the owner of Classic Firearms. He says that a month ago, when the doors opened at a gun show, customers would "run as fast as they could" to get to the ammunition tables.

"Now they're just walking very, very fast."

Joanne Kimberlin, (757) 446-2338, joanne.kimberlin@pilotonline.com