Campaign promises should match times

Gov. Tim Kaine released the latest numbers for this year's state budget shortfall last week, the first step in a process that will inevitably end in more job losses and cuts to education and health care.

With tax collections in the steepest decline in at least four decades, the new round of reductions to the state's two-year budget totals $1.5 billion.

Even so, the disconnect between last week's grim budget news and the campaign promises made by the two gubernatorial candidates is particularly startling.

It's not that Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell are making more spending commitments. Indeed, they both appear to be employing a modicum of caution, at least when their promises are measured against the ambitious proposals of some of their predecessors.

And it wouldn't be fair to ask that the two refrain from proposing goals that carry a price tag. Such a prohibition would make a dull campaign more tiresome, and would ignore the many neglected needs in Virginia's transportation system, schools, colleges and health care safety net.

But Deeds and McDonnell must be careful to acknowledge that the winner of this election will spend much of the next four years rebuilding core services that have been severely slashed.

Even as the economy improves, a process most economists predict will be slow and unsteady, Virginia may well be forced to make still more budget reductions. Federal stimulus funds that averted hundreds of teacher layoffs and helped pay medical bills for the uninsured will start drying up next year. The impact on Medicaid alone is forecast at $1.5 billion over the next two-year budget.

Both Deeds and McDonnell have promised new tax credits for expanding businesses, improved services for veterans, an increase in the number of graduates at state colleges and more land conservation.

During the primary, Deeds joined the other two Democratic candidates in a promise to increase teacher salaries to the national average, which would cost more than $400 million annually, according to state budget analysts.

McDonnell is no spending slouch himself. He wants to increase sentences for drug dealers and certain violent crimes when witnessed by children. He also advocates increased state funding for drug treatment.

As attorney general, McDonnell was a member of the state's Crime Commission when it raised concerns about growing prison costs driven by new state laws establishing mandatory minimum sentences, particularly for drug crimes. Nevertheless, McDonnell is proposing to add to the 82 mandatory minimum sentences already on Virginia's books.

McDonnell even borrows an idea from Democratic attorney general candidate Steve Shannon, who earlier this year filed a bill that would impose longer sentences on sex offenders who fail to register with the state. The bill, which carried an annual cost of nearly $600,000, failed to pass the legislature.

Both candidates have suggested a few modest methods for generating new cash. Deeds wants greater use of efficiency audits, while McDonnell proposes stiffer court fees.

But too often they neglect to provide clear comparisons between the new money they will generate or save and the new spending they propose. In a year when Virginia is watching its pennies extra carefully, the candidates should make a more concerted effort to do the same.