The Virginian-Pilot
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Mark Martin worries about what he faces over the next five weeks. Forget racing for a championship . It’s the fight to get into the Chase that has him – and other drivers – uptight heading into the final five races before the Chase field is set.
“The race to make the Chase is definitely more stressful when you’re in that position than the race for the championship,’’ said Martin, who enters today’s race at Watkins Glen 10th in the points. “You’re fighting and scratching to even have a chance.’’
Greg Biffle sits 12th in points, holding on to what will be the last transfer spot to the Chase. He leads 13th-place Kyle Busch by 101 points.
Busch still has a chance, though. Mark Martin rallied from 123 points down at this point to make the inaugural Chase in 2004. Matt Kenseth was 168 points out with five to go in 2005 and qualified for it. Busch is one of four drivers within that threshold of 12th this season.
What will happen before the field is set after next month’s race at Richmond? Here’s a look at those fighting for the final Chase spots (numbered by points positions) and their chances.
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7. Kasey Kahne
Points ahead of 13th 180
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Five top-10s in last six races. Gained eight spots in points during that time.
Prospects Bristol is his best track among the five remaining before the Chase. Has struggled at Michigan. Gets through there, he should be fine.
Makes Chase or not Makes it. The late surge by Kahne’s team makes him somebody to watch once Chase begins.
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8. Juan Pablo Montoya
Points ahead of 13th 169
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Has placed in the top 12 in nine of the last 10 races, gaining six spots in the standings.
Prospects Best track, based on recent performances, is Bristol. Can’t afford to be too close to 12th going into Richmond, though. His results there haven’t been as good.
Makes Chase or not Only way he won’t make it is if the wheels literally fall off the car in the next few races.
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9. Ryan Newman
Points ahead of 13th 165
Streaking or sliding Sliding. One top-10 result in the last seven races, causing him to fall five spots in the standings.
Prospects If it’s close, he’s good at Richmond (12.0 average finish last five races), and that could determine his Chase hopes.
Makes Chase or not Should make it, but he can’t afford to let that recent slide continue.
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10. Mark Martin
Points ahead of 13th 160
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Three top-10s in the last three races, and he has led more than one-third of all laps run during that stretch.
Prospects Watkins Glen (10.0 average finish in last five races) and Richmond (10.2) are the best tracks among those left before Chase. Atlanta (25.6) could cause problems.
Makes Chase or not If he can avoid the problems that plagued him earlier this season, he makes the Chase. One wonders, though, if there aren’t more problems ahead.
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11. Matt Kenseth
Points ahead of 13th 102
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Three top-10s in the last four races, though he still fell a spot in the points standings.
Prospects Fantastic at Atlanta (6.2 average finish in last five races) and solid at Watkins Glen and Michigan.
Makes Chase or not Has not missed a Chase since it debuted in 2004. For that streak to continue, he needs to be better than what he has been the last few weeks. Signs point to that happening.
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12. Greg Biffle
Points ahead of 13th 101
Streaking or sliding Sliding. Only two top-15 finishes in last six races. Has led one lap during that span.
Prospects Watkins Glen (28.4 average finish in last five races) is his worst track of those left before the Chase.
Makes Chase or not His hopes rest on how well he and his team handle the pressure between now and Richmond.
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13. Kyle Busch
Points behind 12th 101
Streaking or sliding Sliding. One top 10 in the last nine races and has fallen seven spots in points standings since.
Prospects Bristol, Richmond and Michigan are all strong tracks for him coming up.
Makes Chase or not As potent as he and his team can be, it’s hard to imagine him not making the Chase. Yet, he’ll need others in front of him to have some problems.
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14. Brian Vickers
Points behind 12th 104
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Has finished seventh or better in each of last four races, climbing three spots in the points.
Prospects Should be good at Michigan and Atlanta, but often struggles at Bristol and Richmond.
Makes Chase or not He can if he continues this recent streak, but any hiccup would doom his hopes.
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15. Clint Bowyer
Points behind 12th 115
Streaking or sliding Streaking. Two top-10s in last three races and six top-15 finishes in the last nine races.
Prospects Strong lately at Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond.
Makes Chase or not He might be just a bit too far back to get in. To do it, he needs to turn top-10s into top-5s.
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16. David Reutimann
Points behind 12th 121
Streaking or sliding Sliding. Has three top-10s in the nine races since his Coca-Cola 600 win.
Prospects Recent results at upcoming tracks before the Chase don’t provide the most hope.
Makes Chase or not His team has made great strides, but he may have to settle for that and hope for a Chase appearance next year.

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