Alabama Week, Volume 4 (Tide's Side edition) ...

Happy Hump Day, Hokies. I’ll have several Qs and As from Tech players and coaches later tonight, tomorrow and Friday, but first ... an afternoon snack ...

Gentry Estes, the Alabama beat writer for the Mobile Press-Register, contacted me earlier this week asking me to answer five questions about the Hokies for his blog. I obliged, then asked him to do the same in return.

So here they are: My five questions and his answers (or best guesses, as some required) ...

1) Give me your best-case and worst-case predictions for Greg McElroy in his first start. Then tell me what you really think will happen.

Best-case for McElroy is that he has time to operate and Julio Jones plays, gets open and catches a ton of passes, this opening up everything else. Worst-case is an overwhelmed offensive line and a ton of early mistakes, shaking confidence in him and everyone around him.

I do think the offensive line will have some trouble in this first game, but I also think Alabama will come up with an offensive game-plan much more complex than the straight-ahead runs they showed so much of last year. I'd look for lots of quick throws and plays to get skill guys in space.

That said, I honestly think for both Alabama and Virginia Tech, this game will be close, low-scoring and won or lost with defense and special teams.

2) Is there any chance, do you think, that star receiver Julio Jones and starting tailback Mark Ingram don't play in this game, related to their involvement in a scandal about a fishing trip with a booster?

At this exact moment (Wednesday afternoon), yes, I think there is a chance they don't play.

Summing up a very lengthy topic and about four months of reporting: UA did not report a violation in the fishing trip investigation, so it's up to the NCAA to determine that those guys can't play. Saban has made it pretty clear that it would not be his decision if they sit.

Again, as of right now, UA says they haven't heard anything definite from the NCAA. That could literally change any minute. But until that word is received, it's definitely up in the air what could happen.

3) There has been a lot of non-football stuff happening to the Tide this summer. How much a distraction do you think all this has been?

Saban has preached for three years now about his team having the ability to ignore "external factors." Well, there's a ton of those out there right now, so the mental toughness is being tested.

What a lot of people don't remember about 2008 was that Alabama was remarkably fortunate in a lot of ways. There were no major injuries to key players basically the entire season. There were also no high-profile suspensions until Andre Smith and the Sugar Bowl ... and you saw what happened then.

Last year was such a smooth ride for so long that I have to think it helped the Tide play well when it wasn't expected. Now that it is expected, it will be interesting to see how they respond, especially carrying a two-game losing streak.

 

4) Tech fans – all fans – are plenty familiar with Terrence Cody and Julio Jones. Give me one guy on each side of the ball that the Hokies will be talking about on the way home from Atlanta.

Obviously, everyone has to hate what happened with Brandon Deaderick this week, but his likely replacement is a guy to watch. Sophomore Marcell Dareus has a ton of size and athletic ability. He has been a practice standout to this point and could have a real impact stepping for Deaderick. Linebackers Rolando McClain and Dont'a Hightower are both future NFL players. New safety Mark Barron hasn't played much to this point, but he is a head-hunter back there.

Saban has slow-played the arrival of true freshman Trent Richardson, who many college coaches said was the nation's best RB prospect last year. But I think Tide coaches have been thrilled. Look for Richardson to be a real factor Saturday, with or without Ingram. Tall tight end Colin Peek, a transfer from Georgia Tech, may be a guy that Virginia Tech fans remember. Alabama likes to use its tight ends a lot, so he'll be a big key Saturday.

 

5) Alabama wins if (fill in the blank). And loses if (fill in the blank).

Alabama wins if the offensive line can provide adequate pass protection, McElroy limits mistakes in his first start and – above anything else – the Tide is able to run the football effectively so the other two things don't matter as much. A good special teams night will also be very important.

Alabama loses if the above things don't happen, special teams break down at some point and the defense is unable to contain Tyrod Taylor and control the line of scrimmage like it did for most of 2008.

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