McDonnell up big in consecutive polls

Back-to-back polls showing Bob McDonnell with a sizable lead over Creigh Deeds in the 2009 race for governor raise questions about whether the Democrat's post-thesis momentum is ebbing.

McDonnell has a 9-point edge (51-42 percent) in a Rasmussen Reports survey out Wednesday. That follows a SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday that gave the Republican a 14-point advantage.

Rasmussen's Wednesday numbers differ from a mid-September poll the firm did showing the candidates separated by two points in a race it called "effectively a toss-up." (A poll the firm did early this month had McDonnell up 9 points.)

They also diverge from several other recent polls that placed the contest within single digits.

Some of the polls done after news broke about McDonnell's 1989 graduate thesis showed Deeds gaining ground on his rival, a trend partly attributed to the Democrat's attacks on the subject.

The Rasmussen analysis notes that voters prefer McDonnell over Deeds on two topics -- taxes and transportation.

McDonnell's argument that he is the only candidate with plan to pay for roads without a tax hike has gained some traction and exposed Deeds to tough questions about how he'll raise revenue for transportation.

The overall poll numbers include leaners -- voters who haven't committed to a candidate but have a preference -- though McDonnell's lead remains virtually the same with or without that group.

Interviews with 500 likely voters were conducted Sept. 29 for the poll which has a 4.5 percent margin of error.

-- Julian Walker

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