Poll: McDonnell-Deeds race tightens

The double-digit lead Bob McDonnell for weeks held over Creigh Deeds in multiple public opinion polls has dwindled to the point that Rasmussen Reports now calls the gubernatorial contest  "effectively a toss-up."

Poll numbers the firm released Thursday show McDonnell ahead of Deeds 48-46 percent, which is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. (A Rasmussen poll released at the beginning of September showed McDonnell up 9 points.)

Those figures include "leaners," who are identified as survey respondents who initially say they don't prefer one candidate but subsequently say they favor one.

Rasmussen conducted a statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters Sept. 17.

That differs from the sample of 600 registered voters who were interviewed live by phone for a Clarus Research Group survey performed recently that showed McDonnell atop Deeds by 5 points (42-37 percent).

Rasmussen gathers responses using an automated telephone system, which some pollsters consider a less reliable method of collecting data than live interviews.

The firm suggests that McDonnell's falling numbers may be partly attributable to the fallout from the recent revelation of his 1989 graduate thesis advocating a social conservative agenda. 

A statement attached to the poll notes that 52 percent of voters "say the writings are at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote," an increase from 36 percent who responded that way in a previous survey.

Some polls taken immediately after the thesis story broke showed McDonnell maintaining his solid lead.

The latest Rasmussen results also note that McDonnell's "support remains a bit more solid" than Deeds' -- 81 percent of people who plan to vote for the Republican "are certain" their decision is final.

For Deeds, that number is 74 percent.

In other governor's race news, McDonnell released a new television commercial that contrasts his plans for transportation with Deeds'. The ad began airing in northern Virginia Thursday, the same day the men met for their second of four debates.

-- Julian Walker

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