Deeds, Democrats look to students to turn tide in Va. governor election

By Erika Lovley

Only a year after a tsunami of young voters helped President Barack Obama carry the battleground states of New Jersey and Virginia, political enthusiasm appears to be on the wane on college campuses.

That could mean bad news for the two Democrats aiming to ride Obama’s coattails to victory in their tight gubernatorial races.

A robust youth turnout could potentially turn the tide for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine. Corzine is only 1 percentage point behind Republican Chris Christie, according to a recent Public Policy Polling survey, and Rasmussen Reports labels Deeds as trailing opponent Bob McDonnell by 7 points. Both men have unleashed a college campus blitz in recent weeks, hoping student voters will give them the bump they need to inch past their opponents.

Young voters between the ages of 18 and 29 supported Obama in Virginia and New Jersey by 60 percent and 67 percent, respectively. Obama carried New Jersey by a whopping 15 points and became the first Democrat in 44 years to carry Virginia.

In New Jersey, about 377,000 of the 560,000 young voters who showed up at the polls supported Obama. In Virginia, about 373,000 out of 621,000 young voters backed Obama.

But some young Democrats say that energy surge has begun to dissipate and student political involvement for the 2009 races has returned to normal — before the Obama phenomenon seemed to transfix young voters.

At the University of Virginia last October, political signs plastered dorm room walls, and campaign volunteers saturated the campus.

Now, volunteers canvassing first-year dorms report that many students have no idea who Deeds is.

“Last year, every single person knew who Barack Obama was,” said University Democrats President Megan Durkee. “There are a lot more people who haven’t heard of Deeds and the gubernatorial race.”

Historically, gubernatorial races suffer from low voter turnout across all age groups. Experts already expect less than half of last year’s electorate will cast a vote in either state. And young voters are often one of the first age groups politicians lose in an off-year election, making it vital for Democrats to round up a solid showing, according to Peter Levine, director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

“In 2009, turnout will be dramatically lower as it always is in off-year elections,” Levine said. “Democrats will need every young voter they can get.”

But students who powered the Democrats’ political victories last year seem to be less interested in the gubernatorial elections, a seemingly overnight change.

“President Obama was an exception. Gubernatorial and congressional races still don’t generate young people’s interest,” said Princeton University public affairs professor Julian Zelizer. “I rarely hear anyone talking about this race. I have yet to have a student ask me anything about Corzine or Christie.”

New voters haven’t entirely dropped from the political process. A number of college Democrats say their membership numbers are steadily climbing and that more students are likely to become interested in the races during the final weeks. Those who are tuned in to the campaigns say they’ve been impressed by the extensive outreach both campaigns are making on social media forums including Facebook and Twitter, and by the campaigns’ grass-roots efforts on campuses.

“You always get people with every election year who are interested just because it’s a presidential election,” said Lauren Gilbert, president of James Madison University Young Democrats. “But there’s still a lot of potential here.”

But both campaigns have also battled a series of scheduling conflicts for some of their campus events. Most have attracted smaller audiences.

Deeds’s first UVA rally conflicted with new student convocation, a major campus event attended by thousands of new and incoming transfer students. The rally failed to muster many freshmen, a class ripe for new voter registration, according to Durkee.

A second Deeds event — a low-key presentation— attracted only 50 of the nearly 13,500 undergraduates on campus.

Another event at JMU consisted of a seven-minute speech to a group of about 45 students. Students say the speech was scheduled in the middle of the school day during midterm exams. Deeds’s previous visit to campus was for a $40-per-person annual Democratic fundraiser, but students weren’t expected to attend.

Deeds spokesman Jared Leopold said the campaign is trying to get on campus as often as Deeds’s schedule allows.

“Sometimes other events are going on, but it’s more important we get on campus as often as possible,” Leopold said. “I think we got beyond the people at the event and got a lot of coverage in the student publications.”

The campaign is also relying for additional outreach on a television ad aimed at college students.

In the ad Priority, Deeds tries to relate to the financial struggles of college students.

“Growing up, we didn’t have much. But education was always a priority,” Deeds says in the ad. “My mom sent me off to college with just four twenty-dollar bills, so I know good schools are the best investment we can make in our children’s future.”

In New Jersey, Corzine recently tailgated with hundreds of Rutgers University alumni and students before the school’s homecoming game. Despite last-minute advertising, only 30 of the campus Democrats’ nearly 300 members showed up, according to Rutgers University Democrats President Alex Holodak.

“To be honest, it’s been a rough year. Even though the race is getting more interesting minute by minute, it’s more difficult to get people engaged this year,” said Holodak. “I feel like the overall morale of people is like, ‘We already elected the president,’ and that’s it.”

At Princeton, which is largely populated by out-of-state students, the election falls during the school’s fall break, requiring students to request mail-in ballots.

“They don’t consider themselves tied to the future of New Jersey,” said Eric Stern, president of Princeton University College Democrats. “In 1993, the New Jersey governor lost a bid to Christine Todd Whitman. Many believe that foreshadowed the GOP’s numerous congressional victories in 1994. We’d like for that not to happen again.”

The New Jersey Democratic State Committee has been organizing young voters around Corzine’s campaign. The group’s Yes We Can 2.0 program has 32 student organizers on 25 campuses in the Garden State. Committee spokeswoman Alescia Teel estimates there are 72,000 young New Jerseyans who voted last year, and many could potentially turn out again if targeted.

“I think for all our efforts, we’re hoping for a bigger turnout than in traditional off-year elections,” Teel said.

There are still plenty of reasons why students could stay home. Many say they’ve been frustrated by the tanking economy, public education budget cuts and even the negative campaigning that has bloodied both state races.

Corzine has nailed opponent Christie for being overweight. Critics say Deeds has overblown a controversial thesis wrote by McDonnell more than two decades ago.

Obama has stumped for both candidates, attracting large crowds of young adults. But experts predict they mostly attend to see Obama.

These races “are not going to be at the same level. Realistically, we had to expect they were never going to be at the same level,” said Ben Dworkin, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. “Obama was a special kind of candidate, and 2008 was a special kind of year.”