McDonnell up 12 pts. in new poll

The numbers in poll after poll continue to look promising for Republican Bob McDonnell, who leads Democrat Creigh Deeds 52-40 percent (with 7 percent undecided) in the race for governor, according to the latest Public Policy Polling survey.

The PPP poll out Wednesday shows McDonnell's advantage 7 points higher than it was just three weeks ago when the firm listed the contest as 48-43 percent in favor of the Republican.

McDonnell is viewed more favorably than Deeds. The Republican also leads among independents, both genders, whites and Latinos, all voters over 30 and in every region of the state except northern Virginia.

Deeds is up among black voters, tied with McDonnell at 44 percent support among voters in the 18-29 age bracket and edges McDonnell 47-45 percent in northern Virginia, a region where Democrats historically have needed to run well ahead of Republicans to prevail in statewide races.

McDonnell leads Deeds 51-40 percent in Hampton Roads.

Overall, there aren't many encouraging signs for Deeds, according to Public Policy Polling president Dean Debnam.

“Creigh Deeds is in a pretty dire position right now,” Debnam said in a statement attached to the poll. “Democrats aren’t very enthusiastic about this election. He has to hope that visits on his behalf from folks like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton get a lot more of the party’s base out to the polls.”

Debnam also noted that Deeds' attacks on McDonnell's 1989 graduate thesis advocating a conservative social agenda in government may have backfired. More than half (54 percent) of poll respondents said the Democrat has focused too much attention on the 93-page paper.

In the down ballot races, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and attorney general candidate Ken Cuccinelli both hold double-digit leads over their respective Democratic rivals, Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon.

The survey of 666 likely voters was conducted Oct. 16-19 and has a 3.8 percent margin of error. An automated telephone system is used to gather data for the poll; some pollsters consider results based on that method less reliable than those from live interviews.

Although PPP is considered a Democrat-leaning firm, this poll appears to skew slightly Republican.

Its respondents identified themselves as 36 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat and 31 percent other. Also, 51 percent of those surveyed said they voted for John McCain last year, compared to 45 percent for Barack Obama, who won Virginia in the 2008 presidential election.

Meanwhile Wednesday, two more newspapers backed McDonnell for governor. Those endorsements can be seen here and here.

The Republican candidate also scored a late endorsement from former state Sen. Brandon Bell, R-Roanoke, McDonnell's campaign announced.

In a statement, Bell cited McDonnell's "determined focus on rolling out specific policy proposals for Virginia's future" as his rationale for defecting from Deeds, whom he publicly supported earlier this year.

-- Julian Walker

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