Politico poll: Economy trumps climate as concern

By Andy Barr 

For voters, the economy outpaces all other issues by a wide margin, according to a new Public Strategies Inc./POLITICO poll.

As the nation struggles to climb out of a recession, 45 percent rated the economy as the most important issue in deciding their vote if the congressional election were held today, followed by 21 percent who said government spending, 20 percent who chose health care reform and 9 percent who said the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Just 4 percent ranked climate change as the top issue.

Economic worries also led a majority of Americans to place jump-starting the economy ahead of concerns about the environment.

Even as the Obama administration is pushing for climate protection legislation, 62 percent of those polled agreed that “economic growth should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent.” The remaining 38 percent believed that “protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth.”

The results of the quarterly Public Trust Monitor poll indicate a shift of priorities among respondents. When a similar question was last polled in March, respondents had a much narrower tilt, 52 percent to 48 percent, in favor of economic growth over environmental concerns. Last December, those polled showed a nearly identical split of 51 percent to 49 percent toward economic concerns.

“Concerns, although a little less extreme, are still overwhelmingly negative about the economy. Even though things may be getting a little better, you get the sense that people really want to focus on the economy until we get it locked down,” said David Iannelli, managing director for Public Strategies’ Research Practice Group.

The poll was based on an online survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted Oct. 9-13 and has a 3.1-point margin of error. Public Strategies is a business advisory firm based in Austin. Its clients include trade associations, nonprofits, professional firms and Fortune 500 companies — some of which have a stake in the outcome of climate change legislation.

Overall, the survey showed a hardening of a number of pro-business sentiments that began to surface toward the beginning of the administration.

Asked which is the best approach to avoid a future economic crisis, only 32 percent said “new regulations,” while 68 percent chose “better enforcement of existing regulations.”

Likewise, less than half, 45 percent, said regulation of corporations should be increased, while 29 percent preferred that regulation be kept “about the same as it is now” and 26 percent wanted to see regulation of corporations decreased.

That opposition to new regulation — with an insistence that current rules on corporations be rigorously enforced — mirrors the survey’s July results but differs markedly from polls in December and March.

While 45 percent now want increased regulation, 67 percent favored it in December 2008 and 61 percent sided with the suggestion in March. Meanwhile, the 26 percent who now support decreased regulation reflect a 10-percentage-point jump from the 16 percent who said the same in December. In March, 20 percent favored decreased regulation.

A wide majority, 62 percent, said business will play a larger role in helping the economy recover than the government will, while 38 percent sided with the government. While the majority remains strongly in favor of business, it has actually dropped some since July, when 68 percent chose business and 32 percent said government.

And while the numbers reflect a stronger pro-business sentiment, there is still a clear mistrust of corporations. Asked which concerned them more, 59 percent said that “the U.S. government will not do enough to protect consumers from being taken advantage of by corporations,” while 41 percent said they worried “the U.S. government will constrain corporations to the point where it makes it too difficult to offer new and innovative products and services.” In July, those surveyed expressed mistrust in corporations by the same percentages.

On health care reform, the poll showed a narrow division on how Americans want the White House and congressional leaders on Capitol Hill to reform the system — and even on how important reform is.

Asked which is more concerning, 52 percent answered that “Congress will pass legislation that goes too far in increasing the government’s role in health care.” The remaining 48 percent were worried that “Congress will pass legislation that does not go far enough in addressing the health care challenges facing our country.”

Likewise, when asked about their attitudes toward health care reform, 51 percent said they “would consider voting against my member of Congress based on his or her support of opposition to health care legislation.” Meanwhile, 49 percent agreed that “health care is important to me, but I won’t base my vote primarily on whether my member of Congress supports or opposes health care legislation.”

Moving away from issues, how Americans view their political leaders has changed very little in recent months.

The percentage of respondents who said they trust the two main political parties, top federal institutions and the most powerful political leaders on both sides is nearly identical to the percentage found in July’s poll.

President Barack Obama is trusted by 54 percent, the same percentage as in July.

One-third of respondents trust former Alaska GOP Gov. Sarah Palin; 35 percent said the same of former Massachusetts GOP Gov. Mitt Romney; 19 percent, of House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio); and 23 percent, of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Each of those results has shifted only slightly in the past three months.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was the only politician asked about whose trust index moved by more than 4 percentage points, jumping 6 points, from 24 percent to 30 percent.

“We saw a lot of movement after the election to almost a public recalibration of where people were on trust,” said Iannelli. “But people have repositioned and are now at a spot where they have a wait-and-see attitude about what is going to come out of this. Once we see some changes on some of the big issues that people are keeping their eye on, we will see them start to move again.”