Poll: McDonnell increases lead over Deeds in governor's race

By Andy Barr 

Bob McDonnell, Virginia’s Republican nominee for governor, has increased his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds to 9 percentage points, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll out Wednesday.

McDonnell leads Deeds 51-42 percent, according to the Tuesday poll of 500 likely voters. The new survey shows a significant jump for McDonnell, who led Deeds by only 2 percentage points in the same poll two weeks ago.

Rasmussen is the first major poll in recent weeks to show McDonnell expanding his lead over Deeds.

A Washington Post poll last week showed McDonnell leading by only 4 percentage points, as did a InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll last Wednesday. McDonnell led by as much as 15 percentage points earlier this year in the Post poll.

McDonnell led by double-digits in most polls through the summer, but Deeds gained ground during September in part because of the hit the Republican took after his 1989 master’s thesis was revealed to advocate a number of controversial social conservative positions.

Fifty-one percent of those polled by Rasmussen Tuesday said the thesis is at least somewhat important to them in their candidate preference. That number, however, has hardly changed in the last two weeks.

In addition, pluralities of those polled said they trust McDonnell more than Deeds on the election’s two major policy issues: transportation and taxes.

McDonnell tops Deeds 45-32 percent on the question of whom voters trust to deal with transportation issues. On taxes, McDonnell is more trusted by a 51-36 percent margin.

More Virginians also hold a favorable view of McDonnell than Deeds—by a 7 percentage point margin, 53-46 percent.

“Transportation and taxes are both potent issues in a Virginia governor’s race,” Scott Rasmussen, CEO of Rasmussen Reports, told POLITICO. “Deeds’ recent comments suggesting he would consider higher taxes to pay for transportation topics appears to have hurt his cause. In every previous poll we’ve conducted on this race, voters were closely divided as to which candidate they trusted more on transportation issues. Now, voters express a clear preference for McDonnell.”

The Deeds campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

While the Rasmussen poll contained few positive indicators for Deeds, a different poll out Wednesday suggested the flap over former Democratic Gov. Doug Wilder’s refusal to endorse Deeds makes little difference to Virginia voters.

According to a Public Policy Polling survey, only eight percent of the 576 likely voters surveyed said Wilder’s endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate. Twenty-three percent said Wilder’s endorsement would make them less likely to back either Deeds or McDonnell, and 69 percent said it made no difference.