Rising coastal waters threaten region, report says

NORFOLK

The threat to Hampton Roads from rising coastal waters over the next century is so great that the region "ought to be actively planning a system of dikes and levees unless we intend to forfeit huge portions of our land to the sea," concludes a section of the 2009 State of the Region report released Tuesday.

Compiled by experts at Old Dominion University and presented by former ODU President James V. Koch, the report also recommends that Hampton Roads start getting serious about controlling its carbon emissions, which are thought to accelerate climate change.

To that end, the report endorses green building practices for new construction and renovations. It also advocates a state tax increase on gasoline and diesel as a way to discourage motorists from driving - and polluting - so much.

In an interview Tuesday, Koch called climate change and rising sea levels "the

issue of the 21st century for this region," but one that local leaders and institutions so far have done little about.

The report minces few words in describing the stakes:

"In a nutshell," it reads, "here's what might happen: Large amounts of prime beach and waterfront property will sink underwater; our tunnels will periodically fill with water; our port facilities will incur huge costs in order to continue operating; many residential and commercial properties will become uninsurable; and certain wildlife and fauna will disappear."

Such consequences assume that Virginia and the United States do not tackle climate change in the years ahead, instead forecasting what may occur gradually over the next 100 years.

The report does not shy away from addressing the persistent skepticism that global warming even exists.

It cites a 2009 report by a branch of the Virginia Manufacturers Association that argues, "thirty percent of climate scientists worldwide disagree that human introduced greenhouse gases are causing climate warming and slightly over 14 percent are undecided because the science of climate change and global warming is ever-changing."

Nevertheless, the report adds, "very few reputable scientists dispute the contention that global warming is occurring, even though there is some disagreement over the precise cause of that warming."

State and local environmentalists applauded the report, saying they hope its data and warnings, which they have cited for years, will gain a wider acceptance because of the respect afforded to Koch and his annual reports.

"It's important because this is the first time someone who has the business community's ear is talking about this issue in a no-bones-about-it way," said Skip Stiles, the executive director of Wetlands Watch, a Norfolk-based environmental group.

Stiles also was a member of the Governor's Commission on Climate Change, which met last year before recommending a host of actions - but did not go so far as the report in urging dikes, levees and a gas-tax hike.

Koch said he had no specific places in mind where dikes and levees should be planned or built, only that without such help, waterfront properties - including ports and military bases - will face increased flooding and damage.

He said the Netherlands is a world leader in constructing water-control devices and is engaged in a massive, national effort to stem rising seas off the Dutch coast.

The Army Corps of Engineers, which would have to sign off on any levees or dikes, said Tuesday that it already is factoring in sea-level rise in other infrastructure projects and will continue to do so.

Robert Pretlow, a corps manager, said he and the city of Norfolk are designing a project to protect Chesapeake Bay beaches in Willoughby in which they are including calculations of expected sea-level rise.

"Every coastal project has to look at sea-level rise," Pretlow said. "It's just a question of how much you account for it and how you address it."

Scott Harper, (757) 446-2340, scott.harper@pilotonline.com