Strategists: No. Va's Dems could swing Gov. race

With just over two weeks left until Virginia’s gubernatorial election, Democrat Creigh Deeds is left with a narrow path to victory, one that hinges on energizing key demographic groups and the durability of the Old Dominion’s new politics.

Even as Deeds trails Republican Bob McDonnell by eight and nine points in two of the most recent polls, his campaign and other analysts can still envision a comeback made possible in no small part because of the state’s political turn leftward.

Virginia’s Washington, D.C. suburbs, where one-third of voters reside, have gone from being a battleground region to a Democratic bulwark in recent elections, making it dangerous to write off Deeds just yet.

“The demographic shift of the state combined with what we have done as a party allows us to have air in our lungs,” said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey.

Deeds, a state senator, represents the first true test of just how much the tectonic plates of the commonwealth’s political culture have moved.

While it’s true that Democrats have won successive gubernatorial races, hold both Senate seats and a majority of the House delegation, the question that remains unanswered is whether they can prevail in a campaign in which Virginia’s many independent voters have turned against the national Democratic brand and with a nominee who many in the party privately believe has run a mediocre race.

The answer will be revealed on Election Night when the returns come in from northern Virginia, and particularly Fairfax County, the commonwealth’s largest jurisdiction. The Deeds campaign believes it needs to carry the region with at least 55 percent to win the election and at least approach the 60 percent threshold that recent Democratic candidates have captured in populous Fairfax.

As for turnout, the hope is to push the percentage of northern Virginia’s vote from 33 percent of the statewide electorate to above 35 percent.

"He just needs to get as many Democrats out in northern Virginia as possible," said Democratic strategist Kristian Denny Todd, who worked on Sen. Jim Webb's 2006 campaign. But Todd noted Deeds' task is made harder because of the lack of interest in the off-year race—“and the fact that Creigh doesn't excite anyone.”

One Deeds adviser, while noting their slippage in recent Washington Post and Mason Dixon polls, pointed out that they had seen the most fluctuation in the Washington suburbs and expressed hope that the center-left voters who increasingly populate the region would eventually settle on the more socially moderate of the two nominees.

“We’re running hard in every market, but we’re seeing a lot of volatility in northern Virginia,” said Deeds adviser Mo Elleithee. “We’ve got a good shot a winning if we can bring those voters home.”

Overall, the race may come down to just how many of the voters who turned out for Obama last year will show up this November for Deeds.

University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato noted that there were 3.7 million voters last fall and there will probably be between 2.2 million and 2.6 million at the polls next month.

“Those missing voters will be disproportionately Democratic—everyone agrees on that,” Sabato said. “African-Americans, the young, and well-educated suburbanites just haven’t been energized so far this year, compared to a GOP base that is tired of losing, mad at Obama, and anxious to get back into power.”

Deeds officials recognize the difficulty in closing a gap they believe is closer to five or six points in the 16 days left until the election.

Besides the volatile political environment, where independents seem to be tuning out Democrats—and Deeds’ own deficiencies as a candidate—they are being outpaced on the airwaves in the crucial final weeks.

“They just have so much more up on the air,” complained a Deeds strategist.

McDonnell is being aided on radio and TV by a number of outside groups, including the National Rifle Association, the Family Research Council, the Chamber of Commerce and, most significantly, the Republican Governors Association.

And the Republican himself enjoys a strong money advantage over Deeds that could render a comeback difficult.

As of the beginning of October, McDonnell had $4.5 million on hand while Deeds had $2.7 million remaining.

But in a new era of Virginia politics, Deeds advisers say that an upset win which would have been impossible a decade ago is now at least a possibility—and that there are signs that they may yet be able to rouse the Democratic base or Democratic-leaning voters to swing the race.

The campaign got a boost with three events this weekend, all of which could awaken the sort of voters who voted for President Obama but, either out of lack of interest in state politics or unease about Deeds, have so far been on the sidelines.

First, Deeds got word Friday night that Obama would return to Virginia to rally voters—an appearance that for weeks had been unconfirmed, underscoring the Democrat’s struggles.

Then, on Saturday, McDonnell struggled with questions about whether he believed global warming is real—ultimately refusing to say he thought that was the case. On Sunday, the Washington Post, which circulates widely in northern Virginia, offered a ringing endorsement of Deeds for his willingness to support higher taxes for transportation and weighed in with an equally robust denunciation of McDonnell for his socially conservative views.

Taken together, these developments could bolster the Deeds campaign where it matters most, where Obama retains stronger support than downstate, and where many of the region’s highly educated voters are far from skeptical about climate change. As it did for Deeds in the Democratic primary, the Post’s validation will inevitably find its way into mail pieces and on yard signs.

It’s also no accident that Deeds has brought in top Democrats such as former Vice President Al Gore and Vice President Joe Biden to raise money for him in northern Virginia, and that former President Bill Clinton will appear there on his behalf on Tuesday.

“If Democrats turn out at the right levels, this race is a jump ball,” said Elleithee.

It has not yet been decided where in the state Obama will be when he stumps for Deeds on October 27th, but it’s likely to be either northern Virginia or Hampton Roads, where there is a significant bloc of African-Americans.

Deeds also needs to improve his performance among black voters. His advisers think they’ll wind up getting over 90 percent among African-Americans, but the key question is turnout. Deeds won’t match last November’s levels, when Obama’s historic candidacy boosted the black vote to represent 20 percent of the state’s electorate, but the higher in the teens he pushes the percentage the more likely he is to win.

Aside from the African-American vote, Deeds is counting on driving turnout among women, who initially moved to him after it was revealed that McDonnell had written a graduate school thesis denigrating working women.

Yet some observers and national Democrats believe Deeds must present more to voters than just the thesis.

“Deeds must use certain issues like transportation and education to make a difference with voters who haven’t cared much about McDonnell’s thesis,” said Sabato.

Deeds advisers say they will continue to tag McDonnell with the thesis and his service on the board of Regent University, the conservative Christian school where the Republican wrote the paper, but that they would also move more aggressively to tailor kitchen table issues to the state’s distinct regions. That means schools and roads in traffic-clogged northern Virginia, an emphasis on education in heavily-black Richmond and the Tidewater area and a jobs message in economically hard-hit southwest Virginia.

In the end, Deeds advisers increasingly say, the race is coming down whether they can rally their own Democratic troops.

“Can we motivate the remainder of our activists that haven’t gotten engaged yet?” asked Abbey, summing up what he said would decide the race.