Mathieson may seek recount, but odds of success slim

VIRGINIA BEACH

Del. Bobby Mathieson intends to ask for a recount in the 21st District House race, but based on Virginia's recent history, his chances of emerging as the victor are slim.

Mathieson lost to Virginia Beach Councilman Ron Villanueva by 14 votes and has the right under state law to ask for a recount paid for by the city.

"It is an uphill effort," said Jack Young, a Democratic attorney who worked on Al Gore's presidential recount in 2000 and is helping with Mathieson's case.

In Virginia recounts during the past several decades, the initial winner usually has held onto victory, even when fewer votes separated the candidates.

For example, in 1997, Democrat Donald Williams had an eight-vote lead over opponent Beverly Graeber on Election Day to represent Norfolk's 86th House District. After the recount, he had three more votes and was the official winner.

Since 1965, recounts in the state have changed the outcome of a race five times.

Most recently, in 1991, David Sanders had a 17-vote lead over Jim Scott in the 53rd District race in Northern Virginia. After a three-judge panel threw out a number of absentee ballots in the recount, Scott won by one vote.

That same year, a recount determined that Peter Way was the winner in the 58th District race in the Charlottesville area by seven votes after he was initially down by a vote.

In general, the precinct-by-precinct vote changes that occur in a recount tend to cancel each other out, said Joseph Kearfott, a Richmond attorney who worked on Virginia's only two statewide recounts.

In the 1989 governor's race, Republican J. Marshall Coleman asked for a recount after he lost to L. Douglas Wilder by 6,854 of the 1.8 million votes cast. Coleman gained 113 votes in the recount, but still lost.

The 2005 election for attorney general between Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell is considered one of the closest statewide races in Virginia's history. Initially, Deeds trailed McDonnell by 323 votes of the 1.94 million cast. The recount expanded McDon nell's victory to 360 votes.

"The vote total did not change dramatically," Kear-fott said.

But 14 votes is a close race, he said.

A recount is overseen by a three-judge panel and in the 21st District race would likely be held in early to mid-December.

The procedure is simply a check of the vote tally and doesn't involve issues of voter fraud or determining whether ineligible voters cast ballots, Kearfott said.

The candidate who is behind is looking for human errors in the recount, such as transposed numbers on the tally sheets, said Brett Feinstein, a Richmond political consultant with experience in recounts who is helping Villanueva.

The absentee ballots, which are on paper, will be sent again through the optical scan machine, and sometimes the machine will pick up a change, Feinstein said.

Still, "the chances of an error are slim to none," he said.

Whatever the result, it helps voters and both parties to see how things work and what needs to improve in the election process, said Mark Henson, Mathieson's campaign manager.

"There are a lot of questions out there and this process is the next step," Henson said.

Deirdre Fernandes, (757) 222-5121, deirdre.fernandes@pilotonline.com