More than 1 million Virginians to travel for Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving travel won't be as big a turkey as it was last year when the number of Virginians heading out of town plummeted by a third because of a deepening recession.

But this year's numbers will still be far short of the gravy days of a few years back.

The American Automobile Association projects that 1.15 million Virginians will travel by car, plane or train over the Thanksgiving holiday, up 2.7 percent over last year. That means 14.6 percent of the state's residents will be traveling for Thanksgiving.

AAA forecasts an uptick even though gas is about 60 cents per gallon more expensive than last year. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Hampton Roads was $2.50 last week.

"Gas prices are higher, but the economy is a little better," said Georjeane L. Blumling, vice president of public relations for AAA Tidewater. "Last year, we took a hit all the way around.... People were a little shellshocked at the time."

In 2008, 1.12 million Virginians traveled for Thanksgiving compared with 1.66 million in 2007.

Nationwide, AAA predicts the number of people who travel will grow to 38.4 million this year, up 1.4 percent from last year.

This year's predicted increase will come from vacationers hitting the road, not the air.

About 86 percent will travel by automobile, according to AAA. Six percent will go by air and the remainder will go by train, bus or boat.

AAA estimates air travel will be down 6.2 percent in Virginia.

The Air Transport Association of America, the trade association for the leading airlines, expects a smaller drop. The association predicts a 4 percent decrease in the number of Thanksgiving travelers nationwide.

The expected decline closely mirrors the trend at Norfolk International Airport, which has seen a 4.5 percent drop in traffic so far this year.

That's even despite some recent deep discounts.

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics recently reported that the average airfare for the second quarter of this year - $301 - is the lowest since 1998.

That fare, which is an average of all fares and includes both one-way and round-trip tickets, is down 13 percent from a year earlier. The decrease is the biggest since the government began keeping records in 1995.

Before this year, the biggest decline was between the fourth quarter of 2000 and the fourth quarter of 2001, after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

"The economic head winds facing the airlines and their customers are anything but behind us," said James C. May, the association's president and CEO.

Despite the expected decline in travelers, airplanes are likely to be quite full because airlines have cut back on their flights in response to economic pressures.

The four busiest air travel days are expected to be, in descending order - Monday, Nov. 30; Sunday, Nov. 29; Friday, Nov. 20; and Wednesday, Nov. 25.

"During this busy travel period especially, passengers should plan ahead and provide plenty of time for airport check-in and security screening," May said.

Passengers may be asked to provide their date of birth and gender when making a reservation or checking in for a flight as part of the TSA's new Secure Flight program.

Passengers who have not flown in a while may not be familiar with the rules, especially Thanksgiving food rules.

For example, pies can get through security checkpoints, but because of rules for liquids, cranberry sauce and gravy are no-nos.

Debbie Messina, (757) 446-2588, debbie.messina@pilotonline.com