GOP hopes Sen. Webb will help kill health care bill

By Manu Raju

Senate Republicans say they want to “smoke out” Democratic senators who could help them bring down the health care bill, and so far, they think they’ve found one in Sen. Jim Webb.

With all the attention focused on four other fence-sitting moderates, Webb has voted with Republicans six times on the first series of amendments on the Senate floor — giving GOP leaders some hope that the unpredictable Virginian could buck his party in the end and block the bill.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, No. 4 in GOP leadership, said Webb’s votes “came as a bit of a surprise” and that he “probably wasn’t on our initial list that we thought of [as] people we might get.”

Webb, who won his seat in 2006 in a cliffhanger race against Republican George Allen, has taken a low-key role in the debate so far. It’s far from clear whether he’ll vote for the bill in the end, although Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is “confident” that Webb’s concerns will be addressed and that he will ultimately back the bill, a Reid spokesman said.

“Jim’s gone his own way on several things — he’s independent, and I respect it,” said Reid’s deputy, Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “But he’s been very honest with us throughout, and I count him as an important and valuable member of our caucus.”

Still, his early votes have given party leaders pause. He voted for GOP efforts to send the bill back to the Senate Finance Committee as well as to restore proposed cuts to Medicare — a move some in the GOP said was intended to keep entitlement programs from being “raided” to pay for the new health care initiatives, a label most of Webb’s party strongly rejects.

In an interview, Webb said he’s “rather skeptical that those cuts [to Medicare] are sustainable,” given the increasing number of people from the baby boom generation eligible for the entitlement program. He also said Medicare Advantage programs have improved services in rural parts of Virginia.

“I’m voting my conscience, which Harry Reid wants all of us to do,” Webb said. “I have a lot of concerns about Medicare. I think it’s important to express those views on these votes.”

But the amendments to restore the proposed cuts failed on the floor — meaning that whatever bill emerges in the end may very well include the Medicare cuts that worry Webb. Asked if that meant he might oppose the underlying bill, Webb said: “I’ll see what the bill looks like when we get to the end of it.”

Webb’s vote, of course, is critical to Democrats’ efforts to advance the bill out of the Senate. With GOP senators expected to unite in opposition to the bill, Reid will need all 58 Democrats and the two independents to break a GOP-led filibuster.

Republicans say part of their floor strategy to bring down the bill is to offer a series of amendments that could cause moderate Democrats to waver — on issues ranging from Medicare cuts to taxes. In the words of one senior GOP aide, that will “smoke out” senators who are uneasy about key elements of the bill and maximize pressure on them to vote against it.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has told colleagues that he’s been pleasantly surprised to see Webb vote with the GOP, according to aides. And Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show Friday that the Kentucky Republican told him the GOP’s “focus” is on flushing out which Democrats may vote with them in the end. McConnell reportedly singled out Webb and conservative Nebraska Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson in his private talk with Limbaugh. Nelson is the only Democrat so far who has voted against his party more than Webb on the health care bill.

“We appreciated [Webb’s] support on opposing the Medicare cuts,” McConnell told POLITICO. “Obviously, he shared our view that those were pretty devastating.”

Webb, 63, has also escaped scrutiny because his votes have not been decisive. But as a point of comparison, his fellow Virginia Democratic colleague, Mark Warner, has bucked the party just twice so far on the measure.

In the swing state of Virginia, the votes of seniors will loom large for Webb, who could very well be a top target for the GOP in the 2012 election cycle.

The GOP thinks it has new life in the state after Republican Bob McDonnell trounced Democrat Creigh Deeds in last month’s Virginia governor’s race, winning by a solid 18 percentage points — a year after Barack Obama won the state by 7 points over John McCain. Sixty percent of voters 65 and over voted for McDonnell; 53 percent of seniors in Virginia voted for McCain in 2008, according to CNN exit polls.

And already, political circles are buzzing on who might take on Webb — including everyone from Allen to former Rep. Tom Davis to the state’s newly elected attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, to House Minority Whip Eric Cantor.

With the electorate growing older, Obama’s approval ratings slipping and the possibility that Webb may face a top-tier GOP candidate, Larry Sabato, a political expert at the University of Virginia, said it may be a “useful rhetorical tool” for Webb to point to the votes in which he split with his party on health care reform.

“He may want to say, ‘I was with the president when he was right, but I opposed him when he was wrong,’” Sabato said. But he added that Webb is one of the least “politically motivated” senators, and he doubted his defection has been spurred by the political changes in Virginia.

Indeed, Webb said there’s “no inconsistency on what [he’s] been doing” since he got elected, and his spokeswoman, Jessica Smith, insisted that his positions are “not based in politics” in Virginia. Smith also pointed out that Webb voted to proceed to the health care debate and in favor of some Democratic amendments, including one to guarantee access to breast cancer screenings. He also voted against an amendment that would have imposed tough abortion restrictions.

Webb’s reputation on Capitol Hill is based on his prowess in military matters — a Vietnam veteran, he served as Navy secretary under President Ronald Reagan — as well as on his straight-shooting style. This month on the Senate floor, Webb joined Republicans who said that some $400 billion in Medicare cuts would be devastating to seniors, saying that participants in the Medicare Advantage program would lose benefits. But Democrats disagree, saying the cuts are meant to keep Medicare solvent and arguing that the underlying bill would improve coverage and care.

Still, the GOP has some hope that Webb may buck his party over the matter.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that Webb has a “good ear” and seems to be hearing concerns from voters back home.

“Maybe that’s a great asset for a guy who wants to be a Democratic senator in a slightly purple state,” Graham said.