NASCAR ponders tune-up to fix skidding fan base

NASCAR has one primary challenge this offseason: determining how to please fans and improve competition in time for the 2010 season, which is less than two months away.

The buzz is all about Danica Patrick selecting her Nationwide schedule for next season, but that distraction shouldn't deter NASCAR officials from addressing the sport's most pressing issues.

The numbers point to a declining interest level, and the result is a perception that NASCAR is in trouble.

Consider:

• NASCAR TV ratings for most networks declined as much as 11 percent in 2009.
• Attendance fell by more than 10 percent.
• Average lead changes per race were their lowest since 2003.
• This year had the fewest pole winners since 1989.

Of course, go ask any U.S. racing series executive and they'd love to have such problems, noting that NASCAR remains the country's most popular motorsports series.

Even so, the issues it faces are real and may not be easy to remedy.

TV ratings play a key role for the sport because it measures fan interest, and ratings were down for much of the season. While many of the networks airing NFL, NBA or college football have seen rating increases this year, NASCAR's numbers on most networks fell. Fox's ratings for NASCAR were down 11 percent from 2008, with TNT down 9 percent and ABC down 8 percent.

Only ESPN's ratings were up - about 5 percent.

"The ratings and the properties are still very, very strong," said Stephen Master, vice president of Nielsen Sports, which measures TV viewership. "Granted, there is a bit of a small decline, but I think people are getting a little bit bent out of shape over the decline because it's still a phenomenally strong property."

TV ratings have been falling since 2005, but this past year saw sharper dips. Reasons vary for the drop - from Jimmie Johnson winning a fourth consecutive title to the series' most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., going through his worst season in Cup.

NASCAR officials are banking on more than an Earnhardt revival to raise TV ratings in 2010. Standardizing start times, series officials claim, should entice more fans to watch given that many of them wanted races to start sooner.

Just as important for NASCAR is getting fans to the track. The economy has played a major role in the attendance decline. Based on the crowd estimate that NASCAR provides for each race, attendance was down 12 percent from last year.

Tracks lowered tickets to entice fans to return. Lesa France Kennedy, chief executive officer for International Speedway Corp., which owns several tracks, said her company saw an increase in first-time buyers purchasing tickets that had been reduced. She admits that "our challenge is to

get them to their first event."

Just as challenging can be keeping fans coming back, especially those veteran fans who claim the racing isn't as good as it once was. Kennedy expects to see some changes that should help the racing.

"I think that you can bet that NASCAR is going to be taking a really close look, especially before Daytona, on some adjustments that they can make," she said. "They always are willing to go back and retake a look at things. I think you're going to see changes and more excitement."

While there are many ways to determine whether a race is exciting, one measure is lead changes. Hampered by a rain-shortened Daytona 500 and Coca-Cola 600, this season averaged 19.5 lead changes per race. That's down from last year's 21.1 rate and the lowest since there were only 18 lead changes per race in 2003.

It's hard to pass, competitors say, because the cars are so even.

"I just really believe we're a victim of our desire," Michael Waltrip said. "We wanted all the cars to be even. Well, they're all even, and they pretty much run like it.

"I don't know what to say. I'm not smart enough to tell you the answer. I do know that the fans would probably appreciate the competitors not complaining about the car. I don't think the car is at fault."

Even with this car design, there were 14 different race winners - two more than last year, but two fewer than two years ago. Also, three drivers - Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and Johnson combined to win more than half the poles this season.

So, what to do? Waltrip said NASCAR needs to cut the engine's horsepower from 900 to 600. That would close the competition and provide for more side-by-side racing. What's not clear, though, is whether that would make it easier for cars to pass and the lead to change more often.

Waltrip also notes that his opinion is just one of many. He said that NASCAR's town hall meeting in late May with competitors, car owners and others provided little unanimous consent but rather "people saying 10 different things."

So, what does NASCAR do?

Listen and learn.

"The good news is we have a lot of people that have been doing this for 10, 20, 30 years, who understand how to filter the opinions, the reactions, and the advice that we get into a way that gets the best outcome for the sport," NASCAR Chairman Brian France said.

"We're not perfect. We'll make mistakes. But by and large, year after year, we will make far more good decisions than we will poor ones. And the poor ones that we make, we'll try to fix them as fast as we can."