Sea-level rise slowly becomes issue in Outer Banks

Coastal scientists are predicting that rising seas could drown much of the Outer Banks by the next century, but the issue is just starting to be recognized as a looming crisis in league with beach erosion.

Despite the vulnerability of the barrier islands to potentially catastrophic rising seas, there is no clarion call to be proactive.

"I think most people who spend time around the ocean probably think there is some rise in the ocean levels," said Allen Burrus, v ice c hairman of the Dare County Board of Commissioners and a Hatteras native. "But they also feel that, like most things in nature, it comes in cycles."

A science panel - hosted by the state Department of Environment and Natural Resources - this month presented data that showed seas off the Outer Banks have risen 0.17 of an inch a year over a 24-year period, the highest rate in the state. Data will be reviewed every five years to observe trends.

Tancred Miller, policy analyst for the state Division of Coastal Management, said a report based on the panel's analysis soon will be presented to the state Coastal Resources Commission, which will use it to begin drafting policies on rising sea levels. Eventually, he said, local governments in the state's 20 coastal counties will be expected to incorporate the policies into their land-use plans.

For the time being, the town of Nags Head is addressing severe beach erosion and storm damage on the oceanfront on the south end of the town, but the topic of rising sea levels is not on the table.

"There's not been a discussion, really," Town Manager Cliff Ogburn said. "We've been talking about beach erosion for a very long time. Does sea-level rise contribute to it? Probably. To me beach erosion is not a new topic - sea-level rise is."

Ogburn said the town is seeking permits and funds for a beach nourishment project. Meanwhile, it is working to get damaged houses off the beach, he said.

Future plans, he said, will probably include increasing setbacks for oceanfront houses.

The science panel projected that if the same rate is maintained, sea levels would rise 1.3 feet this century.

If they rise at the expected global rate - based on measurements from global tide gauges and satellites - then seas on the North Carolina coast would rise 3.3 feet, which would inundate much of the low-lying barrier islands. If ocean levels rise at the accelerated rate some scientists project, sea levels could increase as much as 4.6 feet here.

"You're already seeing it," said science panel member Stanley Riggs, a coastal geology research professor at East Carolina University. "It's been going on for decades. It's the storms that cause the erosion. If we didn't have a rising sea level, we'd have a nice happy beach."

Riggs said that as the levels rise, erosion will increase, and more houses will be claimed by the ocean. The only way to address the inevitable is to retreat.

"It's crazy for anyone to think they can build a house on that shoreline with a rising sea level," he said. "For the long term - which is longer than a mayor's elected for - if you're going to manage these beaches and keep them viable, then you've got to get those houses out of the way. You've got to get the road out of the way.

"North Carolina has to start thinking long term," Riggs said, "or we're going to lose our tourism industry."

But Burrus, the Dare commissioner, said he is more prone to listen to islanders who have observed the beach come and go, who have lived through a decade in the 1960s with no hurricanes and who remember when the sound used to freeze every winter.

"I guarantee you, there are lots of answers - we just have to figure it out," he said. "Most of those people have degrees, but they don't have any practical knowledge. Science is science, but it changes all the time."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Catherine Kozak, (252) 441-1711, cate.kozak@pilotonline.com