NASCAR preview 2010 | The number for The Chase? 14

Apparently, the key to a NASCAR Sprint Cup championship centers on finishing 14th.

That’s the philosophy crew chief Brian Pattie followed last year in helping Juan Pablo Montoya make the title Chase for the first time.

He arrived at it using a simple math equation, really.

Pattie found that in the prior three years, the last driver to qualify for the Chase picked up an average of 121 points per race. That’s the equivalent of finishing 14th every race from the Daytona 500 to the September Richmond event that closes out NASCAR’s “regular season.”

His conclusion: Big risks aren’t needed to make the Chase.

“By the time you get to Richmond, you don’t want to go, 'Oh, remember those 150 points that we gave away last weekend? It would be nice if we had them today.’ ” Montoya said. “So, you’ve got to be smart. You’ve just got to wait and see how the year plays. If we have great race cars every week, then by the time when you get to Richmond or a few races before Richmond, you’re already in and you can take a different approach.”

Pattie’s equation shows the value of finding your pace during the seven months NASCAR uses to set up the 10-race Chase.

With Montoya three spots out of the final Chase spot last May, Pattie preached consistency and the need to average a 14th-place finish for the first 26 races. While they would have preferred victories, the need for top-10 finishes proved just as vital.

A nine-race stretch during which Montoya finished between sixth and 12th eight times (he finished second in that event), helped him secure a Chase spot.

Jimmie Johnson and his team have been experts in this area, with crew chief Chad Knaus knowing when to push the team and when to ease off a bit before the Chase begins. It’s why, some say, Johnson has won the past four championships. His team is refreshed entering the Chase and can charge for wins with few worries.

“The only thing I can come up with at the end of the year is we have been less affected by pressure than other teams,” Johnson said in explaining his Chase success. “We prepare the cars the same. Our approach is the same.

“All the races, our intentions were to get as many points as possible, which you know is winning and scoring consistent finishes. We want to be strong in the summer so we don’t have to count on a race in making the difference if we make the Chase or not. I don’t want to be in that situation.’’

Other teams sometimes find that they don’t have the luxury. Mark Martin finished 30th or worse in three of the first four races last year, dropping him to 34th in the points a month into the season. It helped that he had one of the fastest cars – provided the engine held together – but it still took him two months to climb into a Chase-eligible spot. And 14th-place finishes weren’t going to do the trick.

Once in the Chase, the strategy changes. Pattie, who preached conservative racing in the regular season, then became more of a risk taker. Montoya had new cars each of the first three races of the Chase and half of the 10 races. Four of Montoya’s six top-10 finishes during the Chase came with new cars. By comparison, every car Johnson used in the Chase had been raced earlier in the year.

Pattie’s reasoning for the move was that using a new car provides the opportunity to take lessons learned from older cars and install improvements into the new car.

Not everyone, though, agrees with that strategy.

“For me personally, and what I feel as getting the driver confidence and the race team confidence, I would have wanted to have run those cars at least once … to know I had the bugs worked out,” said Darian Grubb, crew chief for Tony Stewart. “Every chassis is its own animal. Everything needs a little bit of tuning.”

Even the strategy.

“The setup of running consistently top 10 to get yourself into the Chase and then trying to flip the switch (to go for wins), that’s hard to do,” Grubb said. “Juan Pablo and those guys did very well with that.”

Well enough to make the Chase.