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NASCAR preview 2010 | The time is now for Hamlin

Posted to: Auto Racing Sports

Denny Hamlin, who turns 30 this season, is outspoken about his desire to get to the top of the circuit. His goal is to become a Cup champion, something no Virginia native has done since Norfolk’s Joe Weatherly in 1963. (Terry Renna | The Associated Press file photo)

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LEADER OF THE PACK
A look at how Denny Hamlin’s statistics through his first four full seasons compare with the first four seasons of some other drivers who moved to Cup since 1999. Hamlin is entering his fifth full season.

DRIVER/PCT. OF TOP 5 FINISHES
1. Tony Stewart/38.6
2. Jimmie Johnson/36.1
3. Carl Edwards/34.4
4. Ryan Newman/34.2
5. Kyle Bucsch/31.3
6. Denny Hamlin/31.1

DRIVER/PCT OF TOP 10 FINISHES
1. Tony Stewart/62.1
2. Jimmie Johnson/58.5
3. Carl Edwards/54.1
4. Denny Hamlin/52.3
5. Kyle Busch/48.0

DRIVER/LAPS LED
1. Tony Stewart/3,645
2. Denny Hamlin/3,494
3. Jimmie Johnson/3,341
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr./3,308
5. Ryan Newman/3,287

SOURCE: NASCAR and Virginian-Pilot research

____

IF NOT HAMLIN THAN WHO?
If Denny Hamlin isn’t the guy to unseat Jimmie Johnson as series champion this year, who might? A look at four likely candidates and a long shot.

  • TONY STEWART
    Why he'll win it: This team has gone through that first-year learning phrase and did it while leading the points part of the season before stumbling later in the year. It won’t make same mistakes twice.
    Number crunching: Since 2006, no driver other than Johnson (12 wins) has won more Chase races than Stewart (5).
  • MARK MARTIN
    Why he'll win it: He’s beaten Johnson before. Well sort of. No driver scored more points than Martin’s 2,661 in the final half of last season (Johnson scored 2,631 points during that span).
    Number crunching: He completed all but one lap in the second half of last year. The only lap he didn’t make was the final one at Talladega after he had gone upside down in multi-car crash.
  • CARL EDWARDS
    Why he'll win it: Roush Fenway Racing won’t go through another down season like 2009, when the team won only three races and Edwards was shut out. This team is confident it has fixed its problems.
    Number crunching: Speed is still a problem. Edwards led only seven laps in the final 22 races last year. If he can lead races early, it’s a sign that the team is back.
  • KYLE BUSCH
    Why he'll win it: His team should be stronger, and maybe new crew chief Dave Rogers can help Busch make the Chase and then avoid the flameouts he’s had in past Chases
    Number crunching: His 12 race wins are more than any driver the past two years in NASCAR’s regular season season (the first 26 races).
  • KURT BUSCH (LONG SHOT)
    Why he'll win it: Adding a new crew chief (Steve Addington) and being with the only Dodge organization (Penske Racing) may prove to be a benefit and not the detraction that many figure.
    Number crunching: After leading only 164 laps in 2008, Busch bounced back to lead 738 laps last year.
– Dustin Long

CHARLOTTE

Denny Hamlin’s not yet 30 and beginning only his fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup season, yet his quest for greatness may have reached a pivotal point.

While Mark Martin has demonstrated that drivers are perfectly capable of competing for a championship even when they’re 50, Hamlin needs to start winning titles soon if he wants to be considered among the sport’s elite drivers .

The last five drivers to win Cup championships – Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon – each won a crown by their fifth full season. All also were 31 or younger when they won that first title.

Hamlin, who turns 30 this season, is outspoken about his desire to get to the top of the circuit. A year ago, he said he was tired being labeled as a driver with potential. He responded with a career-high four wins. Now the goal is becoming a Cup champion, something no Virginia native has done since Norfolk’s Joe Weatherly in 1963.

An offseason ACL knee injury suffered playing basketball won’t deter Hamlin. Shortly after his injury, as if to dispell any notion that he was rethinking his goals, Hamlin wrote on his Twitter account:

“Nobody wants it as bad as me … PERIOD.”

Now it’s time to prove it.

“You can only get beat by someone so many times before you start learning how to beat them,” Hamlin said of Johnson. “We’re starting to get to that point

where our paths are starting to cross a bit.”

Johnson knows that many challenges could be coming his way this season. It comes with the territory when you’ve won the points championship four years in a row.

“We’ve been a motivational tool for a lot teams … over the last few years,’’ he said.

Hamlin could provide Johnson’s stiffest challenge to another title. Consider:

  • Hamlin’s four wins in the final 16 races of last season matched Johnson’s mark in the same span.
  • Hamlin won the season finale at Homestead, the first time he’d won on a 1.5-mile track in his career. That’s important because four of the 10 Chase races are at 1.5-mile tracks.
  • His team improved as the season progressed last year.
  • Hamlin is showing signs of developing into a team leader.

The leadership role might be the biggest factor in considering whether Hamlin really could be a worthy foil to Johnson.

Earlier in his career, Hamlin publicly criticized his pit crew after mistakes cost him wins. The disgust led at one point to a post-race meeting among Hamlin, crew chief Mike Ford and team president J.D. Gibbs on pit road at Darlington in 2007 moments after the pit crew had once again cost Hamlin a victory.

Hamlin remained vocal in 2008. After blowing an engine at the August Michigan race, he said: “We don’t even deserve to be in the Chase.’’

Hamlin was outspoken at times again last year but it was more constructive than the personal lashings he had previously directed at his team. He also accepted blame when merited.

“Denny Hamlin did an incredible amount of maturing in the second half (of last season) to become the leader of that team,’’ said former driver Kyle Petty, a broadcaster for TNT and Speed Channel. “And I thought the last 10 races of the year, he made a mistake, they had some engine failures, but it wasn’t the Denny of old.

“He said, I made a mistake. That was my fault. He began to step up and assert himself in a different position within that team, but I think he’s done the same thing on the track. If they can roll into this year like they finished and work smart during the winter, the Gibbs group will be tough, and Denny will be tough.’’

Hamlin’s leadership is growing in step with his maturity. Ford cites patience and communication as two areas Hamlin has improved since joining Joe Gibbs Racing.

“Patience comes with knowledge,’’ Ford said. “The more you can learn about they whys and the limiting factors, the more at ease you are with working through your problems. That is what we gained last year.’’

Wait, patience and Hamlin in the same sentence? What about his feud with Brad Keselowski in the Nationwide series last year? After several run-ins, Hamlin proclaimed he would wreck Keselowski in the season finale at Homestead. Hamlin honored his word.

Now with Keselowski in Cup full time, can Hamlin keep his cool?

Hamlin admits that “not letting that stuff frustrate you as much, that’s what could make me better.’’

A cool composure is critical because the sport is about problem solving. For all the talent teammate Kyle Busch has, he acknowledged last year that he needed to rein his emotions when the car isn’t running as well as he wants. Otherwise, he can’t help his team make the car better.

With limited practice time each weekend, trying to catch Johnson and the rest of that No. 48 team is not easy. The 10 races in the Chase seem to suit Johnson’s driving style – he’s won 30 percent of the 60 Chase races run – and few, if any, are better than crew chief Chad Knaus.

“You look at them in practice and they run as fast as they have to,” Hamlin said of Johnson’s team. “Somebody beats them, they’ll go out there and run a little bit faster. Chad and those guys always have a little bit in reserve that they’re always able to give.”

That’s what Hamlin has to find, while his team searches to improve its consistency and reliability. Engine failures forced Hamlin out of two Chase races. Avoid those issues, and he’s got as good a shot as anyone on the circuit to unseat Johnson and win the title.

“If Jimmie is at his best, and I’m at my best, I feel we’re going to be toe-to-toe,’’ Hamlin said.

Time to prove it.



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DH

If DH can keep his composure and continue to mature he will win more races. I am a DH fan and I think he does do a lot of talking and ccme off as whiney at times. But he has heart, determination and definitely has skill. And for him to take out Keselowski like he said he would shows he has guts! He actually walked the walk. Good for him and good for the sport! I think we'll be seeing a lot of DH like we did his rookie year!

Hamlin?

I don't think he (DH) has a chance. While he does run very good, he has other problems. Besides, Brad (and other stuff) will keep him down. Kyle might come on strong. The last race last year did not really count to me. Forget the Fords. Kurt might be a surprise if they can find something.

funny, he seems to be the consensus pick

No chance? Come on. His name seems to be the one all of the experts mention to be the next champ and at this pint he has as good a chance as anyone. Of course, it's way too early to prognosticate. (BTW, DH is not my guy.)

that's point, not pint

I prefer the 12-ouncers.

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