Being in the top 12 this early no guarantee of making the Chase

Since the Chase expanded to 12 teams in 2007, history shows that nearly half the drivers in the top 12 in the points heading into Atlanta (the fourth race of the season) do NOT make the Chase.

 

So, as the series heads to Atlanta this weekend, who won't make the Chase that is already in it?

 

First, here's the top 12 in points heading into this weekend.

 

1. Kevin Harvick .... 506 points

2. Clint Bowyer ..... 47 behind leader

3. Mark Martin ..... 49 behind leader

4. Matt Kenseth .... 58 behind leader

5. Jimmie Johnson ..... 63 behind leader

6. Greg Biffle ..... 63 behind leader

7. Jeff Burton .... 76 behind leader

8. Joey Logano ..... 93 behind leader

9. David Reutimann ... 109 behind leader

10. Carl Edwards ... 117 behind leader

11. Tony Stewart .... 120 behind leader

12. Kyle Busch .... 131 behind leader

 

So, exactly what has the past three years shown us? Last year, seven drivers in the top 12 at this point in the season, did NOT make the Chase. In 2007 and 2008, it was five drivers in the top 12 at this point in the season who did NOT make the Chase.

 

Another interesting trend is that at least two drivers who were 20th or worse in the points each of the past three years MADE the Chase. So, that's got to be good news for such drivers this season as Martin Truex Jr. (21st), Denny Hamlin (22nd), Kasey Kahne (23rd), Juan Pablo Montoya (26th), and Ryan Newman (32nd), among others.

 

That's an important stat for Montoya, considering his fall in the points the past two weeks with 37th-place finishes after placing 10th in the Daytona 500. One of the reasons he was upset with teammate Jamie McMurray after their crash at Las Vegas last weekend is how far back it put him in the points.

 

And for those worrying about the start of Denny Hamlin, there's a bit of reason for concern but also understand that he typically has not been a fast starter. He begins to take off when the series heads to Bristol and Martinsville _ no driver scored more points than Hamlin in the six short track races last year. And that's where the Cup series heads for its next two races after Atlanta. Hamlin admits in this USA Today first-person story that he has to do a better job but also admits that the Toyota engine is behind the Chevrolet engine in horsepower.

 

Newman also isn't ready to panic just yet when looking at points. Of course this is nothing new for him. Last year, he was 33rd in the points at this time and still made the Chase. Mark Martin was 34th in the points at this time last year and also made the Chase. While Newman admits "we've got ourselves in a hole,'' he also says: "We've got a long time before that issue becomes pressing. I feel confident that we've made some big gains with our race cars this year. I feel like we've been more competitive in general. In saying that, we've still got more work to do. We're not sitting here having won two of the last three races like Jimmie Johnson has.''

 

Of course, it gets back to the question of who falls out the top 12 and doesn't make the Chase.

 

Making it a bit more cloudy in picking this is the expected change to the spoiler at Martinsville from the rear wing. Depends on who you talk to in the garage as to how big a change it will be. Some drivers say it will be a significant change. Others? Not as much. Obviously, that will impact who makes the Chase and who doesn't.

 

Still, it is an interesting concept that what the points look like now could be radically different when the Chase field is set.

 

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TNT announced Thursday morning that Adam Alexander will be its play-by-play announcer for its six Cup broadcasts this summer, starting at Pocono in June. Kyle Petty and Wally Dallenbach return as analysts. Alexander replaces Bill Weber, who was let go after an incident at New Hampshire last summer.

 

One other change for TNT is that former pit reporter Lindsay Czarniak will host the network's pre-race show. Pit road reporters will again be Ralph Sheheen, who served as play-by-play announcer after Weber's departure last year, Marty Snider and Matt Yocum. Also, TNT will again stream the races on NASCAR.com and again will feature the July Daytona race with limited commericial interruption as it has done the past three years.

 

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OK, so how many in the top 12 in points now WON'T make the Chase? And who replaces them in the Chase field?

 

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